243 FXUS62 KCHS 162313 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 713 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure strengthens overhead through the weekend, keeping conditions dry across our area. Afternoon highs will also gradually increase during this time, with temperatures rising into the 80s to perhaps lower 90s by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The main change to the forecast was to lower min temperatures in most places given excellent radiational cooling. Using the cooler guidance we have lowered mins down about 2-4F from earlier, with the coolest of 43-44F along the northwest tier and Berkeley County, with the "warmest" of mid 50s in the Charleston metro and near and along the coast. Tonight: Dry high pressure will continue to prevail across the region with the center of the high becoming centered just to the north across the central/southern Appalachians. Under the influence of a very weak gradient, winds will decouple this evening and calm conditions are expected through the rest of the night. The combination of calm winds and clear skies will yield good radiational cooling conditions. While temperatures aren`t expected to be quite as cool as they were last night, we are still forecasting mid to upper 40s inland ranging to the low 50s along the immediate coast. A few isolated low 40s will be possible as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridging pushes eastward across the Ohio River Valley Thursday, allowing quiet conditions to continue across our area. Will see highs during this time approach seasonal norms, as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Above normal temperatures then return heading into the weekend with the aid of plentiful sunshine and S/SE winds. Currently have highs in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few of our interior GA counties approaching 90 degrees. Otherwise, look for overnight lows to remain on the milder side, as temperatures only fall into the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging begins to degrade by Sunday as a trough develops across the central CONUS. Despite there being an increase in cloud cover, still expect highs to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, look for rain chances to return early next week as the aforementioned trough nudges closer to the region. Mainly have isolated PoPs (<20%) Monday afternoon for our interior SC/GA counties. Given the diurnal nature of these showers, do not expect to see much in the way of severe weather - rather, just some rumbles of thunder. Better forcing arrives Tuesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Nonetheless, still only looking at scattered coverage, with showers then lingering into Wednesday as the front stalls. In regard to temperatures, expect afternoon highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s to remain common. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z Friday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: Quiet conditions are expected across the local waters, as high pressure initially overhead is absorbed by a stronger and larger high building out of the Ohio Valley late. Southerly winds at 10 or 15 kt early, will veer to the SW with speeds no more than 5-10 knots, then eventually around to the W late as land breeze influences develop. Seas are forecast to be just 1-2 feet. Friday through Monday: High pressure strengthens overhead through the weekend, allowing tranquil marine conditions to prevail, with S/SE winds between 10 to 15 kts and seas averaging 2 to 4 ft. Gusts along the direct coastline and the Charleston Harbor could surge each afternoon to around 20 knots due to the afternoon sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... For Thursday, another round of relative humidity values around 25 percent is expected. The best chance for values around or below 25 percent will be interior southeast GA. However, winds will not be a concern with speeds 10 mph or less in most areas. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...SST MARINE...