363
FXUS62 KCAE 070014
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in control into Monday before a
cold front moves through Monday night. That front will be
ushering in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of
the work week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Milton is expected to pass
south and east of the forecast area with breezy conditions
possible Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
- Patchy fog develops towards daybreak.

We have a few areas of lingering cumulus across the forecast
area this evening with the majority of the high clouds just
grazing our far southeastern CWA. Skies are expected to be
mainly clear for much of the overnight period until areas of
patchy fog develop towards daybreak. Current thinking is that
fog will be most favored across the northern half of the CWA in
addition to normally fog prone locations, such as those near
rivers and other bodies of water. Clear skies and light winds
should result in slightly cooler temperatures than last night
with forecast lows generally in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key messages
- Mostly dry weather with a gradual cooling trend expected.

An upper level trough will pass through New England on Monday
with a trailing cold front pushing through the Southeast U.S. PW
values will briefly increase to 1.25 inches with the frontal
passage for a slight chance of showers and then decrease to 0.50
to 0.75 inches Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be
well above normal on Monday with a cooling trend to near normal
by Wednesday. The frontal passage and a tightening gradient
between surface high pressure to our north and TC Milton should
prevent optimum radiational cooling potential and keep low
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages
- Continued dry weather with a noticeable cooling trend.
- TC Milton expected to move across Florida during the middle
  of the week.

TC Milton is expected to move across Florida and into the
western Atlantic Ocean Wednesday Night through Friday. The
primary concern for The Midlands and CSRA are wind gusts. The
probabilities for gusts in excess of 30 mph are noticeably
higher for the southeastern Midlands. We will need to monitor
the risk for the Western Midlands and CSRA which have damaged
trees and hanging limbs due to Helene.

High pressure aloft is anticipated to be over the region Friday
into the holiday weekend. Temperatures should be near normal
for mid October Friday through Saturday and then a few degrees
warmer on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through most of the forecast period
although some restrictions in morning fog possible.

Satellite imagery showing most of diurnal cumulus has dissipated
although there is still some moisture trapped beneath a
subsidence inversion with some scattered clouds around 4-6kft.
Overall moisture has lowered with PWATs less than an inch with
most of the moisture in the lower levels. Strong radiational
cooling is expected tonight with calm winds and high pressure in
place with mid level dry air which should favor possible fog
development. Mixed signals in the guidance with some showing fog
and others not and there is a 15-20 knot low level jet that
complicates things. Decided to go ahead and carry prevailing
MVFR vsbys at fog prone AGS/OGB with tempo IFR vsbys 09z-12z
while only carrying MVFR vsbys in a tempo group at CAE/CUB/DNL.
Winds should remain light through the day on Monday with a weak
pressure gradient.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday, although brief early morning fog or
stratus will be possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$