848
FXUS62 KCAE 130020
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region begins to transition to a more summerlike pattern into
the upcoming weekend. Hot and humid conditions, along with less
organized and more typical pulse storms are expected. This pattern
is expected to persist through the first half of next week.
Additionally, very hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices
are possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Waning convection gives way to potential fog/stratus later
  tonight.

A pretty typical summer evening and overnight period is on tap.
Convection started fairly early this afternoon along the sea
breeze and raced northwestward. Even though we had solid
instability across the area today, the speed with which the sea
breeze and outflow propagated northwestward made it tough to see
many strong storms. This setup makes sense given the weak
ridging aloft and surface high pressure extending inland from
the Atlantic. Expect convection to continue to wane over the
next hour or two before debris cloudiness takes over.
Thereafter, it looks fairly similar to last night. Low clouds
and patchy fog look to develop after 3am across much of the
area. Guidance and persistence suggest this to be the case so
expect it on your morning commute to work. Lows should be near
70 again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Summer-like conditions with diurnally driven showers and
  thunderstorms.

A somewhat more active weather pattern will continue through
Saturday night across the Southeast. While the area will be on the
western side of Atlantic high pressure, the upper ridge axis will be
far enough offshore to allow numerous shortwaves to ripple through
the area, providing an additional focus for convection. The greatest
coverage will be during daytime hours when greater instability
exists, however the airmass should maintain enough theta-e to
support a few showers or tstms through the overnight hours as well.
The convective parameters do not look particularly impressive so we
don`t expect a widespread threat for severe weather. Nevertheless,
given the season, we can never completely rule out an isolated
severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or large hail. Highs
will slowly warm each day with values around 90 degrees in spots by
Saturday. Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A gradual warming trend with daily chance for showers and
  thunderstorms.
- Heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees toward
  the middle of next week.

The upper ridge axis is expected to shift west late weekend into
early next week with a deep layered ridge building over the
Southeast. Precipitation coverage is expected to move back to a more
typical summertime pattern with mainly scattered afternoon/evening
showers and tstms. High temps are expected to climb toward the
middle of next week, with heat indices pushing well above 100 each
afternoon. Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of the SC
Midlands starting as early as Tuesday where heat indices rise above
108 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions present across the area right now, with IFR and
LIFR conditions again expected later tonight.

Convection kind of dodged all of the TAF sites this afternoon,
mainly remaining merely in the vicinity of the sites. This has
moved north of all the TAF sites as of this writing and really
isn`t expected to redevelop. The overall pattern is similar to
what it was yesterday with surface high pressure and
southeasterly surface flow across the region. Low-level moisture
is rich across the region, especially given the persistent
rainfall we are having every day. Given this, thinking another
round of IFR/LIFR vis/cig restrictions are on tap later on
tonight. They should generally form between 08z and 10z and last
through mid morning before lifting as (probably) upper end MVFR
cigs by late Friday morning. Expecting this to primarily be
ceilings but low-level winds look light enough to see some
patchy fog mix in as well, especially at DNL (elevation helps)
or AGS/OGB (our typical fog problems). By tomorrow afternoon,
another round of showers and storms are expected across the
area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible each
afternoon and evening with typical summertime thunderstorms into
early next week. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause
some restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...