848 FXUS62 KCAE 130020 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 820 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The region begins to transition to a more summerlike pattern into the upcoming weekend. Hot and humid conditions, along with less organized and more typical pulse storms are expected. This pattern is expected to persist through the first half of next week. Additionally, very hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices are possible by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Waning convection gives way to potential fog/stratus later tonight. A pretty typical summer evening and overnight period is on tap. Convection started fairly early this afternoon along the sea breeze and raced northwestward. Even though we had solid instability across the area today, the speed with which the sea breeze and outflow propagated northwestward made it tough to see many strong storms. This setup makes sense given the weak ridging aloft and surface high pressure extending inland from the Atlantic. Expect convection to continue to wane over the next hour or two before debris cloudiness takes over. Thereafter, it looks fairly similar to last night. Low clouds and patchy fog look to develop after 3am across much of the area. Guidance and persistence suggest this to be the case so expect it on your morning commute to work. Lows should be near 70 again. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Summer-like conditions with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. A somewhat more active weather pattern will continue through Saturday night across the Southeast. While the area will be on the western side of Atlantic high pressure, the upper ridge axis will be far enough offshore to allow numerous shortwaves to ripple through the area, providing an additional focus for convection. The greatest coverage will be during daytime hours when greater instability exists, however the airmass should maintain enough theta-e to support a few showers or tstms through the overnight hours as well. The convective parameters do not look particularly impressive so we don`t expect a widespread threat for severe weather. Nevertheless, given the season, we can never completely rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds and/or large hail. Highs will slowly warm each day with values around 90 degrees in spots by Saturday. Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - A gradual warming trend with daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. - Heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 degrees toward the middle of next week. The upper ridge axis is expected to shift west late weekend into early next week with a deep layered ridge building over the Southeast. Precipitation coverage is expected to move back to a more typical summertime pattern with mainly scattered afternoon/evening showers and tstms. High temps are expected to climb toward the middle of next week, with heat indices pushing well above 100 each afternoon. Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of the SC Midlands starting as early as Tuesday where heat indices rise above 108 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions present across the area right now, with IFR and LIFR conditions again expected later tonight. Convection kind of dodged all of the TAF sites this afternoon, mainly remaining merely in the vicinity of the sites. This has moved north of all the TAF sites as of this writing and really isn`t expected to redevelop. The overall pattern is similar to what it was yesterday with surface high pressure and southeasterly surface flow across the region. Low-level moisture is rich across the region, especially given the persistent rainfall we are having every day. Given this, thinking another round of IFR/LIFR vis/cig restrictions are on tap later on tonight. They should generally form between 08z and 10z and last through mid morning before lifting as (probably) upper end MVFR cigs by late Friday morning. Expecting this to primarily be ceilings but low-level winds look light enough to see some patchy fog mix in as well, especially at DNL (elevation helps) or AGS/OGB (our typical fog problems). By tomorrow afternoon, another round of showers and storms are expected across the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief restrictions are possible each afternoon and evening with typical summertime thunderstorms into early next week. Patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause some restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...