448 FXUS62 KCAE 010825 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 425 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control through this morning. A weak front will move through later today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms for northern areas. High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by the end of the week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorms across the northern Midlands this afternoon. Mostly clear across the region this morning, except for a few debris clouds moving south into the area from earlier convection across NC. There remains a layer of smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires, which is slightly affecting radiational cooling potential, with temperatures sitting in the low to mid 60s. Still a bit of time for some additional cooling, but it should only be a degree or two before the sun starts to warm things up again. Deep upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS today. A weak surface boundary and mid level shortwave will graze the region along the NC/SC border, with a similar round of convection expected to develop to our north. It does appear the boundary will sink a bit further south this afternoon, and therefore have maintained chance PoPs across the Northern Midlands as multiple CAM solutions depict showers and thunderstorms developing north of the I-20 corridor. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe storms in this area, mainly for damaging winds. Instability will be limited, generally around 1000 J/kg or less, with marginal shear generally less than 30 kts and PW values around 1-1.25". Any convection should dissipate a couple of hours after sunset as the boundary moves southeast and the atmosphere stabilizes. Weak surface high pressure then pushes into the region tonight, and drier air begins to settle in. Highs today climb into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Beautiful weather is expected! Beautiful weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Troughing is forecast across the Carolinas on Monday, yielding to rising heights and ridging building across the area by Tuesday. This kind of mid/upper level convergence is expected to yield & sustain an expansive surface high pressure that will slowly push its way south and east during this period and into the long range. Drier than normal air is forecast across the area both days, with NAEFS PWs near the 10th percentile for early June. This equates to PWs of 0.75"-1.0", so obviously both days are forecast to be dry. Temperatures will likely moderate from where they were this weekend, but still be near normal (mid/upper 80s) with below normal dewpoints (55F-60F). In general, expect beautiful weather to start the upcoming work week! && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message(s): - Quiet weather is expected on Wednesday, with uncertainty in the upper level pattern thereafter. - In general, though, a more active pattern looks to arrive by the end of next week. The synoptic pattern looks pretty interesting by the middle to end of this week. Upper level ridging is forecast across the area by Wednesday and Thursday, but guidance has begun to show a shortwave trough from the passing trough today getting cut off over the Gulf. This will be the primary feature of uncertainty later this week as its evolution and eventual path out of the Gulf will have some implications on our weather. There is a range of solutions amongst guidance; the GFS is the wettest solution but in general guidance is a bit more wet than it was 24 hours ago. Ensemble guidance smooths out the solutions a bit but is trending slightly wetter as well. Regardless of the track of this feature, it does appear that the pattern will get a bit more active beyond Wednesday. Ridging should break down as deep trough approaches from the west. The surface high should shift into the western Atlantic & increase favorable onshore flow, with moisture increase to above normal levels again, especially by Fri/Sat. Highs are expected to get back to near/slightly above normal values though that will be modulated by the extent of showers/storms we see. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few mid-level clouds may move through the terminals early this morning, but only around 10k ft MSL. Winds generally light and variable with the dry airmass too dry to support fog development. There continues to be a layer of smoke aloft from Canadian Wildfires but no restrictions to visibility at the surface are expected. WSW winds pick up to around 10 kts later this morning. A few -TSRA may enter the forecast area from the north this afternoon but will likely remain north of the TAF locations. Otherwise some fair weather cumulus is likely this afternoon, which will dissipate into this evening along with winds becoming light and variable once again. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Generally VFR conditions expected through early next week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to potential early morning restrictions and afternoon thunderstorms for late week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$