927
FXUS62 KFFC 262339
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Key Messages:
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of east central Georgia
through 8PM this evening. Heat index values as high as 105-108
degrees are possible.
- An additional Heat Advisory has been issued for the same
locations from 12 to 8 PM Sunday.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible today and
tomorrow, primarily across far north Georgia.
Discussion:
Sensible weather over the next several days will be influenced
primarily by pervasive ridging at the mid-levels, with 500 dam
heights as much as 2-2.5 standard deviations above average for this
time of year. As this warm, moist airmass stagnates under increasing
subsidence, temperatures will begin to surge to well above average.
High temperatures today will be in the 90s, with warmest conditions
located to the south and east. On Sunday, expect highs to be a few
degrees warmer, potentially reaching into the lower 100s for our far
southeastern tier. With ample moisture -- dewpoints in the mid-70s --
expect heat index values to continue to creep back over 100 for much
of the area.
A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8PM today (Saturday) and
tomorrow (Sunday) for portions of east central Georgia for maximum
heat index values as high as 105-108 degrees. Practice good heat
safety to combat bolstered risk for heat-related illnesses: hydrate,
take frequent breaks in the shade, wear loose, light-colored
clothing, and always look before you lock. Additionally, lows will
be a few degrees warmer than average, dropping into the mid-60s to
mid-70s. As overnight lows continue to rise, heat relief after dark
will become more and more difficult for those without air
conditions.
As a lobe of surface high pressure nudges westward and atop the
northern Gulf through the remainder of the weekend, a steady stream
of south/southeasterly flow sets up across western Gulf, while
surface winds across north and central Georgia shift to the
northwest. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday will be diminished in part by the impacts of subsidence under
mid-level ridging. Best chances for an isolated thunderstorm will
fall across far north Georgia, where orographically-enhanced
convection is possible as the aforementioned flow treks over the
southern Appalachians.
96
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Key Messages:
- Dangerous heat is expected to persist across the area through
the early parts of the coming week. An Extreme Heat Watch
remains in effect for portions of east-central Georgia for
Monday.
- Warm overnight temperatures will do little to provide any relief
from the heat
- After isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Monday afternoon,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase each day
through the end of the week.
As the long term period begins on Monday, the axis of a broad and
persistent 500 mb ridge will centered over the Deep South and slowly
retrograding to the west. After the continual warming trend from the
previous few days, Monday will be the hottest day of the week.
Outside of temperatures in the 80s in the highest elevations, highs
are forecast to be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the majority
of the area. These highs will largely be 6-12 degrees above normal
for late July. At this time, heat index values are forecast to
exceed 110 in areas to the east of a rough line from Macon to Athens
on Monday afternoon. An Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect from 11
AM until 9 PM on Monday for this area. Furthermore, heat indices are
forecast to exceed 105 across the majority of the rest of the area,
where a Heat Advisory will likely also be needed. With subsidence
under the ridge, isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday
afternoon will be mostly confined to the far northern tier and far
eastern counties. With the lack of any steering or notable forcing
mechanisms, the evolution of diurnal precipitation will largely be
determined by local effects such as remnant outflows and the sea
breeze.
On Tuesday, troughing over the northeast CONUS will cause the ridge
to further retrograde and return low level moisture to Georgia.
After this point, the coverage of diunally driven storms is expected
to increase. In spite of the slightly lower temperatures due to the
increased afternoon PoPs, the dangerous heat will continue with
increasing dewpoints allowing for heat indices to climb to 105-110
once again on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Low temperatures will
also be as much as between 6-12 degrees above normal Monday through
Wednesday morning, in the mid 70s to near 80 each morning early next
week. Unfortunately, this means that overnight relief from the heat
will be difficult to come by during this prolonged heat wave. This
is especially true in larger urban areas that will be slower to cool
off in the hours following sunset. Those with plans to spend time
outside this weekend and next week should be mindful of heat stress
and signs of heat exhaustion. Plan to wear light, loose fitting
clothing, hydrate frequently, and take frequent breaks in the shade
or indoors.
The latest global deterministic models and ensembles indicate the
potential for a front to slowly sink southward across the TN Valley
and a weak surface to develop to the east/southeast of Georgia in
the mid to late week. This will increase PoPs further, with
numerous thunderstorms expected each afternoon from Wednesday
through Friday.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
A few showers are currently over the metro but should begin to
come to an end over the next hour or two. Cannot rule out a TSRA
but chances remain low. Overnight expecting high level cirrus and
then a FEW cu field tomorrow limited by the high pressure. Winds
should remain out of the W/NW through the period.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.
Hernandez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 75 98 77 100 / 0 10 0 20
Atlanta 76 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 10
Blairsville 68 89 70 91 / 10 20 10 40
Cartersville 73 96 75 97 / 0 10 0 20
Columbus 75 97 78 99 / 10 10 0 10
Gainesville 75 95 77 97 / 0 10 0 20
Macon 75 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 10
Rome 72 95 74 95 / 10 20 0 20
Peachtree City 73 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
Vidalia 77 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ027-036>039-
049>051-059>062-072>076-083>086-097-098-111>113.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ027-036>039-
049>051-059>062-071>076-081>086-094>098-105>113.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Hernandez