908 FXUS62 KFFC 061833 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Key Messages: - Dry air to the immediate west of Chantal will largely limit rain chances today. Chances for thunderstorms will return to central and portions of far north Georgia tomorrow afternoon. - High temperatures will range from the 80s in the mountains to the mid 90s in central Georgia today will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Chantal made landfall in coastal South Carolina this morning, and has since been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it advances northward towards North Carolina. Subsidence to the immediate west of Chantal will inhibit chances for showers and thunderstorms across the majority of the area this afternoon, with only slight chance PoPs being carried in portions of east-central Georgia in the closest vicinity to the tropical system. With limited cloud cover and the influence of upper level ridging remaining over the eastern CONUS, afternoon high temperatures will continue their gradual climb, reaching into the low to mid 90s across the area in all but the far northeastern mountains. On Monday, a shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region and Midwest, which will displace the upper ridge responsible for this weekend`s sensible weather to the east and push the remnants of Chantal back into the Atlantic. Dewpoints and precipitable water values will begin to gradually climb as atmospheric moisture increases. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to be hotter than today, particularly in portions of east- central Georgia, where highs will reach into the upper 90s. Furthermore, considering the increasing low level moisture, heat index values will climb to between 100-105 degrees in areas to the south of I-85 and into the upper 90s along and to the north. MUCAPE values will furthermore increase to between 1000-1500 J/kg in portions of central and west Georgia on Monday afternoon. With a baroclinic zone also lingering across the northern Gulf, a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return to central Georgia (mainly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon) in the afternoon. An isolated storm also cannot be ruled out across the far northern tier on Monday afternoon. King && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Key Messages: - Heat indices peak Tuesday and Wednesday with some reaching 100- 108. - Diurnal PoPs return with scattered to widespread thunderstorms possible, increasing through the end of the week. Heat Indices peak Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with isolated to scattered convection, ample moisture, and highs reaching into the mid and even upper 90s. Dewpoints on Tuesday will be especially oppressive, reaching 70-75F during peak heating Tuesday. As we move into mid week, the Bermuda high trends weaker as a series of weak shortwaves traverse the Ohio Valley. While not super impressive, these shortwaves will likely be enough to drive low-mid level flow more consistently out of the southwest. This should subsequently increase PWATs to a healthy 1.75" to 2.0" by Thursday. Given the moisture, small upper level divergence provided by the shortwaves, and warm temperatures, afternoon thunderstorms should increase to a more widespread mode. Subsequently, models have decreased high temperatures through this timeframe with increased convection. Temperatures will still be very hot given humidity (heat indices near 100). Ensembles continue to favor CAPE values of 1500 to 2000J/Kg each day. Similar to most summertime patterns, a few storms could become strong to even severe with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Relatively weak upper level flow may mean storms move slowly or even sit over the same location for extended periods of time. No widespread or organized severe weather is expected at this time given limited shear and upper level flow support. In addition to disturbances aloft, mesoscale features like cloud cover/differential heating and outflow boundaries from earlier convection will govern where exactly storm development is favored each day. SM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with a cu field between 040-060 this afternoon underneath upper level clouds. Winds will be NW at 5-8 kts to start the period, decreasing to 5 kts or less by 00-01Z. Chances for isolated TSRA will return to central GA on Monday afternoon. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 30 Atlanta 74 96 75 95 / 0 10 0 40 Blairsville 64 89 66 89 / 10 20 10 50 Cartersville 71 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 40 Columbus 73 96 74 95 / 0 20 10 30 Gainesville 71 94 74 94 / 0 10 0 40 Macon 73 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 30 Rome 70 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 50 Peachtree City 70 96 72 95 / 0 10 0 30 Vidalia 74 96 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...King