908
FXUS62 KFFC 061833
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Key Messages:

 - Dry air to the immediate west of Chantal will largely limit rain
chances today. Chances for thunderstorms will return to central and
portions of far north Georgia tomorrow afternoon.

 - High temperatures will range from the 80s in the mountains to the
mid 90s in central Georgia today will be a few degrees warmer
tomorrow.

Chantal made landfall in coastal South Carolina this morning, and
has since been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it advances
northward towards North Carolina. Subsidence to the immediate west
of Chantal will inhibit chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the majority of the area this afternoon, with only slight chance
PoPs being carried in portions of east-central Georgia in the
closest vicinity to the tropical system. With limited cloud cover
and the influence of upper level ridging remaining over the eastern
CONUS, afternoon high temperatures will continue their gradual
climb, reaching into the low to mid 90s across the area in all but
the far northeastern mountains.

On Monday, a shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes
region and Midwest, which will displace the upper ridge responsible
for this weekend`s sensible weather to the east and push the
remnants of Chantal back into the Atlantic. Dewpoints and
precipitable water values will begin to gradually climb as
atmospheric moisture increases. High temperatures on Monday are
forecast to be hotter than today, particularly in portions of east-
central Georgia, where highs will reach into the upper 90s.
Furthermore, considering the increasing low level moisture, heat
index values will climb to between 100-105 degrees in areas to the
south of I-85 and into the upper 90s along and to the north. MUCAPE
values will furthermore increase to between 1000-1500 J/kg in
portions of central and west Georgia on Monday afternoon. With a
baroclinic zone also lingering across the northern Gulf, a chance
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will return to central
Georgia (mainly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon) in
the afternoon. An isolated storm also cannot be ruled out across the
far northern tier on Monday afternoon.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Key Messages:

  - Heat indices peak Tuesday and Wednesday with some reaching 100-
    108.

  - Diurnal PoPs return with scattered to widespread thunderstorms
    possible, increasing through the end of the week.

Heat Indices peak Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with isolated to
scattered convection, ample moisture, and highs reaching into the
mid and even upper 90s. Dewpoints on Tuesday will be especially
oppressive, reaching 70-75F during peak heating Tuesday.

As we move into mid week, the Bermuda high trends weaker as a series
of weak shortwaves traverse the Ohio Valley. While not super
impressive, these shortwaves will likely be enough to drive low-mid
level flow more consistently out of the southwest. This should
subsequently increase PWATs to a healthy 1.75" to 2.0" by Thursday.
Given the moisture, small upper level divergence provided by the
shortwaves, and warm temperatures, afternoon thunderstorms should
increase to a more widespread mode. Subsequently, models have
decreased high temperatures through this timeframe with increased
convection. Temperatures will still be very hot given humidity (heat
indices near 100). Ensembles continue to favor CAPE values of 1500
to 2000J/Kg each day. Similar to most summertime patterns, a few
storms could become strong to even severe with gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Relatively weak upper level
flow may mean storms move slowly or even sit over the same location
for extended periods of time. No widespread or organized severe
weather is expected at this time given limited shear and upper level
flow support. In addition to disturbances aloft, mesoscale features
like cloud cover/differential heating and outflow boundaries from
earlier convection will govern where exactly storm development is
favored each day.


SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with a cu field
between 040-060 this afternoon underneath upper level clouds. Winds
will be NW at 5-8 kts to start the period, decreasing to 5 kts or
less by 00-01Z. Chances for isolated TSRA will return to central
GA on Monday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  30
Atlanta         74  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  40
Blairsville     64  89  66  89 /  10  20  10  50
Cartersville    71  95  72  95 /   0  10   0  40
Columbus        73  96  74  95 /   0  20  10  30
Gainesville     71  94  74  94 /   0  10   0  40
Macon           73  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  30
Rome            70  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  50
Peachtree City  70  96  72  95 /   0  10   0  30
Vidalia         74  96  76  95 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...King