302
FXUS62 KFFC 160217
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...Evening Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Forecast remains on track for this evening with only minor tweaks
made to temperatures to capture cooling in the wake of
precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing roughly
along and north of the I-85 corridor, and will continue to taper
off over the next several hours. Any lingering storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall
before fizzling out.
96
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Key Messages:
- Scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
through the evening into the overnight (3pm-2am) with main
threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall.
- Isolated to scattered storms again tomorrow with the same
threats as today.
- Temps beginning to heat up tomorrow with heat indices between
100-105.
Discussion:
For today, high pressure remains to our west while Invest 93L just
pushed into the Florida pan handle near St Augustine. This has
resulted in a convergence zone along the I-85 corridor where a cu
field has already begun popping with thunderstorms. This is expected
to increase in coverage through the overnight (2am) with the main
threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. Current SPC mesoanalysis shows 4000 sfc cape in the area
with little to no shear so these storms will definitely have
enough energy to form but likely won`t have too much movement
which could become a concern with PWATs currently at 1.8-1.9".
HREF guidance has come down a little with the 90th percentile
showing 2-3" over 6 hours with the mean ~0.5-1". Will need to keep
an eye on flooding concerns in this area but overall as long as
the storms move, shouldn`t be to much of a threat.
For tomorrow, rain chances shift to central Georgia as the low
pressure system moves across Florida. This area is more likely to
see any waves of precip with forecasted PWATs continuing to be ~2"
with this tropical environment. Main threats again are gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. With the
rainfall though, despite temps in the low to mid 90s, should see
heat indices stay in the 100-105 range.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Key Messages:
- Diurnally-driven, scattered thunderstorms will continue through
the long term.
- Oppressive July temperatures and humidity will allow Heat Index
values soar above 105 near 110 degrees in east central Georgia over
the weekend.
Models are in agreement with a tropical disturbance moving across
north Florida this afternoon and out over the northern Gulf early
Wednesday. This feature is expected to track west over the next 48-
hours and over southern Louisiana on Thursday. While not expected to
pose a direct threat to Georgia, this disturbance will provide
sufficient moisture to the region, promoting a very dirty-ridge
pattern over the area as subtropical ridge remains in place. As a
result, expect diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the weekend. Although the threat
of severe storms is low in this pattern, sufficient moisture and
surface heating could produce a few strong storms. And given the
moisture, any training or slow moving storms could pile up the
rainfall. Though most areas will see less than a half inch daily,
localized downpours could produce 1-2 inches.
For the weekend - and already a concern - is the warming temperature
trends, particularly over portions of central and eastern Georgia.
At this time, forecast high temperatures Friday through Sunday are
well into the mid to upper 90s, with a few places approaching 100.
The combination of these temperatures, humidity, and sunny
conditions will produce extremely high Heat Index values and WBGT
values. Based on the latest forecast, Heat Advisories would be
necessary for some of the area beginning Friday.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Initially VFR conds will deteriorate in the wake of afternoon
storms to low-MVFR to IFR by 09-10Z, lingering thru daybreak.
-TSRA psbl beginning 18-19Z Wednesday aftn, with best window for an
isold terminal impact between 21-01Z. Winds to remain out of the
ESE/SE at 5-8kts.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence AM ceiling progression and afternoon TSRA
chances/timing.
High confidence all other elements.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 73 94 72 91 / 10 40 40 30
Atlanta 78 95 75 91 / 10 40 40 20
Blairsville 64 88 67 86 / 0 60 40 30
Cartersville 73 96 74 94 / 0 30 30 20
Columbus 77 98 75 92 / 10 40 40 40
Gainesville 76 93 72 89 / 10 50 40 30
Macon 72 94 73 92 / 10 40 20 40
Rome 72 96 73 94 / 0 30 20 10
Peachtree City 71 96 72 91 / 10 40 40 20
Vidalia 73 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...96