115
FXUS62 KFFC 131033
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
-Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain high
-Main hazards will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
-Flooding risk increases as ground becomes saturated
The region is wedged between a fairly broad/flat yet weak Bermuda
ridge aloft extending from the Atlantic to FL and a cut off low to
the west over the southern plains. The result is a modest SW flow
aloft around the 2 features ushering in deep moisture. PWAT values
running 1.75"+ put the region in the 90+ percentile for this time
of year. Model guidance continues to point to likely pops each day
in the short term likely triggered during afternoon heating once
convective temps are reached. One interesting but subtle parameter
is the forecast mid level lapse rates both Fri and Sat across the
region. Models generally agree on above climo values in the 6.3 to
6.5 deg c/km range which falls in the 75th percentile. Forecast
surface instabilities should also serve to invigorate convection
each day with values running 2500-3500 j/kg. It all should be
enough to ensure that frequent lightning is possible with any
storms similar to what was observed Thursday evening. In addition,
and while the SPC outlook only shows General Thunder, there is a
risk for a few severe storms due to strong winds/microburst. Winds
aloft are relatively weak so would not expect anything widespread
or organized like last Saturday, but cannot rule out a few
isolated severe.
Will need to watch Saturday closely as the remnant upper low
begins to lift NE and into the TN valley. Height falls while
subtle and any wave, weak or not, within the SW flow on the east
side of the low would be enough to trigger a few more severe
storms than expected. As previously mentioned, instability looks
sufficient to support a severe storm and actually slightly more
favorable Saturday over Friday. There are hints of that in the
NAM3k with a MCS moving into TN early Sat AM and the outflow
triggering storms across N AL on Saturday. Worth watching
particularly given the large number of outdoor activities set up
for the weekend. Regardless..with the high PWAT values, rainfall
rates with any storms will be high thus the potential for flash
flooding increases each day we remain in this pattern.
KS
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Key Messages:
- Enhanced moisture will continue across the region under the
influence of southwesterly flow.
- Diurnally driven rain chances expected through the extended
period.
- High temperatures expected near seasonal norms with with lows
remaining 3-7 deg above.
No major changes made to the extended period. By Sat night the
Bermuda like surface ridge centered over the western Atlantic will
have weakened a bit and moves a bit further south with its axis over
central FL and the northern Gulf. This puts the southeastern US in
good Southwesterly flow and good gulf moisture streaming across the
area through the extended periods. This ridge stays fairly
stationary through the middle of next week keeping GA in a very wet
pattern. This will let shortwaves over the Mid MS river valley and
the gulf to move in across GA keeping diurnally driven precip
chances elevated. As such, an active weather pattern is forecast to
persist into next week, PoPs expected in the 65-85% range each
afternoon. PWs stay in the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the extended
periods. Instability indices will also be diurnally driven with
capes getting up into the 500-1500J/Kg range everyday.
Because of the continued precip chances daytime highs will be mainly
in the 80s to lower 90s each day with night time lows in the 60s to
lower 70.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Dealing with IFR and some LIFR cigs at most TAF sites
this AM. Those cigs should begin to lift at sunrise
and continue to MVFR and VFR levels by late AM/early aftn.
Will likely see a repeat of the lower cigs Sat AM with a similar
overall atmosphere and pattern in place. Winds will shift to the
SW in the next couple hours and should remain out of the SW or SSW
for the remainder of this cycle. Biggest challenge will be SH and
TSRA timing. Chances are high much of the day and evening after
18z and model run to run inconsistency hasnt yielded any
confidence in the timing either. Believe we could see a couple of
different windows of storms today with the first being mid
afternoon and the other in the evening. For that have a tempo
period in the aftn as well as a prob 30 period this eve which
aligns with guidance as well.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs and TSRA timing
High Confidence all other elements.
KS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 86 70 86 69 / 70 60 80 50
Atlanta 86 72 86 70 / 60 50 80 50
Blairsville 80 65 80 64 / 80 60 90 70
Cartersville 87 70 86 69 / 60 50 90 60
Columbus 89 72 88 71 / 60 40 80 30
Gainesville 84 70 85 69 / 70 60 90 60
Macon 89 72 88 71 / 70 50 80 30
Rome 86 70 86 69 / 60 50 90 60
Peachtree City 86 70 86 69 / 60 50 80 40
Vidalia 90 72 88 73 / 80 50 80 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...KS