634
FXUS62 KFFC 101051
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Key Messages:
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each
afternoon. A few storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts
and localized flash flooding, especially across eastern
Georgia.
- Heat Index values as high as 98-104 degrees possible today and
tomorrow afternoon.
Discussion:
Moving into the latter half of the week, we begin to shed our
persistence pattern of general mid-level troughing and shift toward
something more quasi-zonal in nature as the Bermuda High noses
westward. Deep layer flow continues to support a conveyor belt of
moisture into the Southeast, reinforced at the surface by moisture-
rich southwesterly flow along the western edge of the aforementioned
Bermuda High. PWATs remain close to the 2" mark per yesterday`s 00Z
FFC sounding, exceeding the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Despite thunderstorms lingering well into the night on Wednesday,
expect the column to rebound quickly in the presence of such
abundant moisture, with convection becoming scattered to numerous in
coverage by the late afternoon/evening. Kinematics remain weak in
the wake of an exiting and lifting shortwave, however, instability
will be sufficient (on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, and
perhaps slightly higher in isolated pockets). Some semblance of an
outflow boundary (and perhaps several) likely lingers across the
southern and eastern portions of the area, and it may serve to
loosely organize some storms into clusters. As a result of our
anomalously moist environment, we will see the potential for precip-
loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts in the
strongest storms. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been
analyzed across nearly all of north and central Georgia today, aside
from our far western tier, to highlight low-end chances for a few
strong to severe storms. In concert with the slightly bolstered
severe chances, lack of steering flow (generally 10kts or less) will
mean that storms that form may move little and perhaps even
backbuild at times. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not
anticipated (though nuisance flooding and ponding of low-lying or
impermeable areas are likely in any storm that forms today), but a
Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
for the entire forecast area today to indicate the potential for
localized instances of flash flooding.
Little change in parameter space is forecast moving into Friday and
similar conditions are to be expected, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Yet another Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been placed across the area as our
high PWAT airmass continues to support efficient rainfall producers.
Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s for all
except far northeast Georgia -- which should remain in the lower 70s
to 80 -- thanks to increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and
thus cloud cover. Despite this, with surging moisture and therefore
humidity, widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be
between 98 to 104 degrees, generally bubbling right under Heat
Advisory criteria (though very isolated pockets within the southern
and eastern halves of the area may briefly feel like 105). Lows will
drop into the 60s to lower 70s.
96
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Key Messages:
-Isolated to widely scattered daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances across North and Central Georgia through the
weekend. Increasing thunderstorm chances around mid-week.
-More widespread triple digit heat indices to return this weekend
into early next week.
A subtropical ridge will begin setting up over the Southeast heading
into the weekend and staying put through the majority of the long
term period. With moisture sticking around -- PWS on the order of
1.75" to 2+" -- this set up will favor hot/humid conditions and
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least early
next week. As has been the trend, an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm remains possible each day with gusty to localized
damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the
threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak
mid/upper-level pattern, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or
stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well.
In addition to the typical summertime thunderstorms, the heat will
be something else to closely monitor. Temperatures are forecast to
climb back up into the low 90s at most locales this weekend (aside
from the NE mountains) perhaps upper 90s across portions of East-
Central GA between Sunday and Tuesday. As a result, `feels like`
temperatures are forecast to rise above 100 and approach heat
advisory criteria for some locales.
Beyond mid-week, like the previous forecast, noting a slight uptick
in rain/thunderstorm chances. Global ensembles continue to suggest
another potential surge of moisture back into the area mid to late
week resulting in the slightly higher coverage of storms.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Majority VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF period with
primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 4-10kft. SCT to NUMEROUS -TSRA is
expected between 18-01Z, and associated heavy rainfall may drop
vsbys to 2-4SM if directly impacting terminals. Low cigs (IFR to
perhaps LIFR) are psbl in the few hours around daybreak (11-14Z)
tomorrow morning post-TSRA, and may be accompanied by low-VFR
vsbys in FG/BR. Winds will remain out of the W at 4-8kts.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence morning ceiling/visibility restrictions and
afternoon convective coverage/timing.
High confidence all other elements.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 89 70 91 72 / 70 30 50 10
Atlanta 89 72 90 72 / 70 20 60 20
Blairsville 83 65 85 65 / 70 20 60 20
Cartersville 89 70 90 70 / 70 20 60 20
Columbus 92 72 91 72 / 60 30 70 20
Gainesville 88 71 89 71 / 70 20 50 10
Macon 91 72 92 72 / 60 30 60 20
Rome 87 70 89 70 / 70 20 50 20
Peachtree City 90 70 90 69 / 70 20 60 20
Vidalia 92 73 93 74 / 60 40 60 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96