313
FXUS62 KFFC 280556
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Key Messages:

 - Hot and humid conditions will lead to potentially dangerous
   heat today and Tuesday.

 - The Heat Advisory has been expanding into the Atlanta Metro
   and northwest Georgia.

 - Thunderstorm activity will return today and increase on
   Tuesday, with a limited potential for damaging downburst winds
   both days.

Heat Concerns Today & Tuesday:

Oppressive heat and humidity, driven by an upper level ridge over the
Southeast and surface dewpoints in the 70s will continue through the
next 48 hours. Peak afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 112 range
are expected today and Tuesday, with the highest values (+110)
focused over east central Georgia. Updates were made to both the
existing Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning. The Heat Advisory
was expanded into the Atlanta Metro and northwest Georgia. Heat
index values in these areas were within 2 to 3 degrees of Advisory
criteria (105 degrees) today and should hover near it for several
hours today and Tuesday. Across central Georgia the Extreme Heat
Warning was expanded into the Macon Area where the heat index should
peak near 110 today and Tuesday. Finally both heat headlines were
extended through Tuesday and now cover the overnight hours as well.
This was done to account for the longevity of this heat event and
poor overnight cooling (lows in the upper 70s) that could adversely
impact anyone without access to AC.

Afternoon & Evening Storms Return:

Diurnally driven convection should return to Georgia today and
Tuesday. For today weak subsidence from the upper level ridge should
be countered by a shortwave diving south from Tennessee. This may
favor convection over north Georgia early in the afternoon. The
shortwave may interact with a weak trough over the Carolina Coast
and south Georgia to produce a few isolated storms in central
Georgia this evening. Overall storm chances today are generally
hovering around 20% for any given location. Severe weather is
unlikely, but a couple of storms could produce isolated downburst
winds near 40 mph.

Thunderstorm coverage should be more widespread Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with the increase in activity driven by the trough in
southern Georgia and the continued weakening of the upper level
ridge. Storm chances should peak at around 60% Tuesday afternoon for
north and central Georgia. Due to a well mixed boundary layer and
DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, some threat for downburst winds in the
40 to 50 mph range may exist between 1 PM and 9 PM. Any storm
clusters that develop will have the best odds of producing damaging
wind gusts. Early storm formation on Tuesday is also the most likely
fail point for both the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Key Messages:

 - The heat wave is likely to persist through Thursday before
   temperatures begin to trend down heading into the weekend.

 - Warm overnight temperatures will do little to provide any
   relief from the heat.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely
   each day through the weekend. Thunderstorms capable of
   producing 40-50 MPH downburst winds are likely on Wednesday.

A mid-level ridge will continue to retrograde back westward and
flatten at the start of the long term period in response to broad
troughing across the northeast. With low level moisture returning to
the region expect coverage of daily rain and thunder chances to
increase. A weak surface low tracking to our south will contribute
to scattered rain and thunderstorm development Tuesday Night into
Wednesday. Inverted V model forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM
at KFFC suggest strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing
strong downburst winds of 40 to 50 MPH again on Wednesday. Heat will
continue to be a concern through at least Wednesday despite
increasing rain chances and cloud cover lowering temperatures ever
so slightly. Forecast high temperatures and heat index values come
down slightly beginning Wednesday across portions of North GA but
temperatures are still expected to remain in the 90s (excluding
northeast GA) and heat index values ranging from 100 to 108-- the
higher end of those values across east-central GA. Similar forecast
highs are anticipated on Thursday for east-central GA but a few more
degrees lower across North GA. Additionally, there will be little
reprieve from the hot and humid conditions once the sun goes down.
Forecast low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday Nights will only
lower into the mid to upper 70s (upper 60s to low 70s in the
northeast GA mountains). Thus, additional heat headlines may again
be needed for at least some portions of the forecast area on
Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday for portions of east-central GA.
Please continue to keep this in mind if you (or your family or pets)
plan to spend any amount of time outdoors!

A frontal boundary sinking southward across the TN Valley towards
North GA will lead to additional showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday to Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
will be possible with any storms that develop. Following the front,
a wedge front looks sets up to the northeast. As a result,
temperatures heading into the weekend will be noticeably cooler.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

The main aviation hazard through 18Z Tuesday will be the
occurrence of isolated thunderstorms between 17Z today and 02Z
Tuesday. Any storms may produce localized downburst winds. Away
from the storms, VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Tuesday.
Winds will continue to be from the northwest (290-350 degrees) at
3 to 12 kt.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in the visibility, ceiling and wind forecasts.
Low confidence in the thunderstorm forecast between 18Z today and
00Z Tuesday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  98  76  97 /   0  30  20  60
Atlanta         78  96  78  97 /   0  20  10  60
Blairsville     69  90  70  90 /  10  50  20  70
Cartersville    75  96  75  97 /   0  20  10  60
Columbus        78  98  79  98 /   0  20  20  60
Gainesville     77  96  76  96 /   0  30  20  60
Macon           78 101  77  99 /   0  20  20  60
Rome            74  95  74  97 /   0  30  10  50
Peachtree City  75  97  76  97 /   0  20  20  60
Vidalia         79 101  77 100 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-027-030>039-041>048-052>058-066>071-
078>081-089>095-102>108.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Albright