313 FXUS62 KFFC 280556 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 156 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Key Messages: - Hot and humid conditions will lead to potentially dangerous heat today and Tuesday. - The Heat Advisory has been expanding into the Atlanta Metro and northwest Georgia. - Thunderstorm activity will return today and increase on Tuesday, with a limited potential for damaging downburst winds both days. Heat Concerns Today & Tuesday: Oppressive heat and humidity, driven by an upper level ridge over the Southeast and surface dewpoints in the 70s will continue through the next 48 hours. Peak afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 112 range are expected today and Tuesday, with the highest values (+110) focused over east central Georgia. Updates were made to both the existing Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning. The Heat Advisory was expanded into the Atlanta Metro and northwest Georgia. Heat index values in these areas were within 2 to 3 degrees of Advisory criteria (105 degrees) today and should hover near it for several hours today and Tuesday. Across central Georgia the Extreme Heat Warning was expanded into the Macon Area where the heat index should peak near 110 today and Tuesday. Finally both heat headlines were extended through Tuesday and now cover the overnight hours as well. This was done to account for the longevity of this heat event and poor overnight cooling (lows in the upper 70s) that could adversely impact anyone without access to AC. Afternoon & Evening Storms Return: Diurnally driven convection should return to Georgia today and Tuesday. For today weak subsidence from the upper level ridge should be countered by a shortwave diving south from Tennessee. This may favor convection over north Georgia early in the afternoon. The shortwave may interact with a weak trough over the Carolina Coast and south Georgia to produce a few isolated storms in central Georgia this evening. Overall storm chances today are generally hovering around 20% for any given location. Severe weather is unlikely, but a couple of storms could produce isolated downburst winds near 40 mph. Thunderstorm coverage should be more widespread Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the increase in activity driven by the trough in southern Georgia and the continued weakening of the upper level ridge. Storm chances should peak at around 60% Tuesday afternoon for north and central Georgia. Due to a well mixed boundary layer and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, some threat for downburst winds in the 40 to 50 mph range may exist between 1 PM and 9 PM. Any storm clusters that develop will have the best odds of producing damaging wind gusts. Early storm formation on Tuesday is also the most likely fail point for both the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Key Messages: - The heat wave is likely to persist through Thursday before temperatures begin to trend down heading into the weekend. - Warm overnight temperatures will do little to provide any relief from the heat. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely each day through the weekend. Thunderstorms capable of producing 40-50 MPH downburst winds are likely on Wednesday. A mid-level ridge will continue to retrograde back westward and flatten at the start of the long term period in response to broad troughing across the northeast. With low level moisture returning to the region expect coverage of daily rain and thunder chances to increase. A weak surface low tracking to our south will contribute to scattered rain and thunderstorm development Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Inverted V model forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM at KFFC suggest strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong downburst winds of 40 to 50 MPH again on Wednesday. Heat will continue to be a concern through at least Wednesday despite increasing rain chances and cloud cover lowering temperatures ever so slightly. Forecast high temperatures and heat index values come down slightly beginning Wednesday across portions of North GA but temperatures are still expected to remain in the 90s (excluding northeast GA) and heat index values ranging from 100 to 108-- the higher end of those values across east-central GA. Similar forecast highs are anticipated on Thursday for east-central GA but a few more degrees lower across North GA. Additionally, there will be little reprieve from the hot and humid conditions once the sun goes down. Forecast low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday Nights will only lower into the mid to upper 70s (upper 60s to low 70s in the northeast GA mountains). Thus, additional heat headlines may again be needed for at least some portions of the forecast area on Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday for portions of east-central GA. Please continue to keep this in mind if you (or your family or pets) plan to spend any amount of time outdoors! A frontal boundary sinking southward across the TN Valley towards North GA will lead to additional showers and thunderstorms from Thursday to Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be possible with any storms that develop. Following the front, a wedge front looks sets up to the northeast. As a result, temperatures heading into the weekend will be noticeably cooler. 07 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The main aviation hazard through 18Z Tuesday will be the occurrence of isolated thunderstorms between 17Z today and 02Z Tuesday. Any storms may produce localized downburst winds. Away from the storms, VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Tuesday. Winds will continue to be from the northwest (290-350 degrees) at 3 to 12 kt. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence in the visibility, ceiling and wind forecasts. Low confidence in the thunderstorm forecast between 18Z today and 00Z Tuesday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 98 76 97 / 0 30 20 60 Atlanta 78 96 78 97 / 0 20 10 60 Blairsville 69 90 70 90 / 10 50 20 70 Cartersville 75 96 75 97 / 0 20 10 60 Columbus 78 98 79 98 / 0 20 20 60 Gainesville 77 96 76 96 / 0 30 20 60 Macon 78 101 77 99 / 0 20 20 60 Rome 74 95 74 97 / 0 30 10 50 Peachtree City 75 97 76 97 / 0 20 20 60 Vidalia 79 101 77 100 / 0 30 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-027-030>039-041>048-052>058-066>071- 078>081-089>095-102>108. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Albright