634 FXUS62 KFFC 101051 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 651 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon. A few storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding, especially across eastern Georgia. - Heat Index values as high as 98-104 degrees possible today and tomorrow afternoon. Discussion: Moving into the latter half of the week, we begin to shed our persistence pattern of general mid-level troughing and shift toward something more quasi-zonal in nature as the Bermuda High noses westward. Deep layer flow continues to support a conveyor belt of moisture into the Southeast, reinforced at the surface by moisture- rich southwesterly flow along the western edge of the aforementioned Bermuda High. PWATs remain close to the 2" mark per yesterday`s 00Z FFC sounding, exceeding the 90th percentile for this time of year. Despite thunderstorms lingering well into the night on Wednesday, expect the column to rebound quickly in the presence of such abundant moisture, with convection becoming scattered to numerous in coverage by the late afternoon/evening. Kinematics remain weak in the wake of an exiting and lifting shortwave, however, instability will be sufficient (on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, and perhaps slightly higher in isolated pockets). Some semblance of an outflow boundary (and perhaps several) likely lingers across the southern and eastern portions of the area, and it may serve to loosely organize some storms into clusters. As a result of our anomalously moist environment, we will see the potential for precip- loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been analyzed across nearly all of north and central Georgia today, aside from our far western tier, to highlight low-end chances for a few strong to severe storms. In concert with the slightly bolstered severe chances, lack of steering flow (generally 10kts or less) will mean that storms that form may move little and perhaps even backbuild at times. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not anticipated (though nuisance flooding and ponding of low-lying or impermeable areas are likely in any storm that forms today), but a Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for the entire forecast area today to indicate the potential for localized instances of flash flooding. Little change in parameter space is forecast moving into Friday and similar conditions are to be expected, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Yet another Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been placed across the area as our high PWAT airmass continues to support efficient rainfall producers. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s for all except far northeast Georgia -- which should remain in the lower 70s to 80 -- thanks to increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and thus cloud cover. Despite this, with surging moisture and therefore humidity, widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be between 98 to 104 degrees, generally bubbling right under Heat Advisory criteria (though very isolated pockets within the southern and eastern halves of the area may briefly feel like 105). Lows will drop into the 60s to lower 70s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Key Messages: -Isolated to widely scattered daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances across North and Central Georgia through the weekend. Increasing thunderstorm chances around mid-week. -More widespread triple digit heat indices to return this weekend into early next week. A subtropical ridge will begin setting up over the Southeast heading into the weekend and staying put through the majority of the long term period. With moisture sticking around -- PWS on the order of 1.75" to 2+" -- this set up will favor hot/humid conditions and daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least early next week. As has been the trend, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible each day with gusty to localized damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak mid/upper-level pattern, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well. In addition to the typical summertime thunderstorms, the heat will be something else to closely monitor. Temperatures are forecast to climb back up into the low 90s at most locales this weekend (aside from the NE mountains) perhaps upper 90s across portions of East- Central GA between Sunday and Tuesday. As a result, `feels like` temperatures are forecast to rise above 100 and approach heat advisory criteria for some locales. Beyond mid-week, like the previous forecast, noting a slight uptick in rain/thunderstorm chances. Global ensembles continue to suggest another potential surge of moisture back into the area mid to late week resulting in the slightly higher coverage of storms. 07 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Majority VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF period with primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 4-10kft. SCT to NUMEROUS -TSRA is expected between 18-01Z, and associated heavy rainfall may drop vsbys to 2-4SM if directly impacting terminals. Low cigs (IFR to perhaps LIFR) are psbl in the few hours around daybreak (11-14Z) tomorrow morning post-TSRA, and may be accompanied by low-VFR vsbys in FG/BR. Winds will remain out of the W at 4-8kts. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence morning ceiling/visibility restrictions and afternoon convective coverage/timing. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 89 70 91 72 / 70 30 50 10 Atlanta 89 72 90 72 / 70 20 60 20 Blairsville 83 65 85 65 / 70 20 60 20 Cartersville 89 70 90 70 / 70 20 60 20 Columbus 92 72 91 72 / 60 30 70 20 Gainesville 88 71 89 71 / 70 20 50 10 Macon 91 72 92 72 / 60 30 60 20 Rome 87 70 89 70 / 70 20 50 20 Peachtree City 90 70 90 69 / 70 20 60 20 Vidalia 92 73 93 74 / 60 40 60 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...96