190
FXUS62 KTAE 180259
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
959 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 958 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Beneficial rain is expected on Thursday and Thursday evening.
  Rainfall totals will mostly range from one-quarter inch to one
  inch, with the heavier amounts falling over our Florida
  counties. There is a very low chance of strong or severe storms
  over coastal communities on Thursday PM.

- Christmas week will feature temperatures running consistently
  5-10 degrees above normal. In late December, normal lows are
  around 40-45 degrees, and normal highs are in the mid 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

No major updates this evening, the forecast appears to be on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

A southern stream shortwave is currently moving slowly east along the
Texas coast. Meanwhile, the impressively vigorous northern stream
shortwave currently blasting across the Northern U.S. Rockies
will amplify modestly over the Plains, picking up the southern
stream wave and moving it east along the northern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. This setup will ultimately lead to a cold front moving
across the region late Thursday night and early Friday morning. In
advance of the front, the southern stream wave will bring deep
southerly flow on Thursday, which will grab the more richly moist
air mass currently north of the Yucatan Channel and bring it
straight northward. At its moistest late Thursday, our Precipitable
Water (PW) values will most likely peak in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch
range. Large-scale ascent, including warm advection lift, in this
richly moist air mass with some elevated instability will produce
a large swath of rain and embedded thunder.

Most guidance keeps surface-based instability confined to the Gulf
waters, but it gets uncomfortably close to the coast, especially
the southernmost part of the coast around Apalachicola and Port
St. Joe. If surface-based instability gets that far north, then
there would be adequate wind shear for organizing convection. That
is still a very low chance, but it is worth mentioning the very
low chance of severe storms on Thursday PM for coastal
communities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Following the cold frontal passage early Friday morning, northerly
winds will usher in a drier and seasonably cool air mass. Winds
will already be decreasing before sunset Friday, so we will have a
good setup for radiational cooling on Friday night. We will start
Saturday morning cold enough over inland locations for frost.

By late Saturday, low-level flow will have already clocked around
easterly, though it will be light at first. A moderating trend
will be underway on Saturday afternoon. Frost on Sunday morning
will be much more localized to colder inland spots.

Later Sunday, a strong high pressure center will move from the
Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. The southern periphery of this
high will bridge southward across our region. The tight pressure
gradient on it southern periphery will bring an increase in
easterly winds from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. At the
leading edge of the wind surge on Sunday, shallow speed
convergence may be enough to eek out a weak or low-topped shower.
This is not expected to amount to much, with 10-15 percent rain
chances now forecast over our Central Time Zone counties.

From Tuesday on, an unseasonably strong 500 mb high will build
over eastern Texas and then expand across the northern Gulf Coast.
With correspondingly warm air aloft and a heavy maritime influence
on our low-level air mass, the rest of Christmas week will be
quite mild and rain-free. Temperatures starting Monday afternoon
will persistently run about 5-10 degrees above normal for the
duration of Christmas week. Indeed, the most recent CPC
temperature outlook for Dec. 22-26 shows a high chance of above
normal temperatures. In late December, normal lows run around
40-45 degrees, and normal highs average around the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening and
part of the overnight period. Cigs then lower across the region
as an approaching frontal system looks to move across the area
tomorrow into Friday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
tomorrow after daybreak. Expect generally light to moderate rain
all day tomorrow, starting around 12Z at the coast spreading
inland throughout the day. PROB30 introduced at TLH late in the
TAF period due to the potential for some strong thunderstorms in
the vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Gentle to moderate easterly breezes this afternoon will clock
around southerly on Thursday, becoming strong late in the day. A
cold front will pass the waters on Friday morning, followed by a
turn to fresh and strong northerlies. Winds will decrease from
late Friday through Saturday while clocking around easterly, as
high pressure to the north moves east into the Atlantic. On Sunday
and Sunday night, the southern periphery of strong high pressure
over the Ohio Valley will bridge south, freshening the easterly
breezes, which are most likely to be fresh or strong by Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

A cold front will pass across the districts early Friday morning. In
advance of the front, most districts will get experience rain and
embedded thunder, with bulk of rain coming on Thursday and Thursday
evening. Inland districts have a medium chance of exceeding one-half
inch of rain, while coastal districts have a high chance. Due to
thick clouds and rain, dispersion will be poor on Thursday. Behind
the cold front early Friday, gusty northerly winds will kick in,
peaking around midday Friday. A drier and seasonably cool air mass
will arrive. On Saturday, low mixing heights and weak transport
winds will bring poor dispersion.

Patchy fog is expected early Thursday morning, mainly in Florida
between the U.S. 19 corridor and the Suwannee River.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Beneficial rain is expected on Thursday and Thursday evening, in
advance of a cold frontal passage early Friday morning. The
forecast axis of highest rain has shifted a little east and now
extends from near Panama City and Port Saint Joe into the Big
Bend region and far south Georgia. This area has a high chance of
exceeding one-half inch. There is even a low chance (10 percent)
for points in this area and south of I-10 to exceed 2 inches.
Other parts of the region are most likely to pick up around 1/4 to
1/2 inch of rain.

These amounts will be beneficial but will do little to alleviate
the longer lasting impacts of the ongoing drought. For more
information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   54  68  57  66 /  10  80  70  10
Panama City   55  69  54  65 /  20  90  70   0
Dothan        49  65  50  60 /  10  90  70   0
Albany        49  68  51  61 /  10  80  70   0
Valdosta      53  71  57  66 /  10  70  70  10
Cross City    55  75  60  73 /  10  50  50  10
Apalachicola  58  68  57  65 /  20  80  70   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late
     Thursday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ770-
     772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner