753
FXUS62 KTAE 050148
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
948 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
The forecast is in good shape, so no updates. Pockets of heaviest
rain this evening were along and near the Flint Valley of
southwest Georgia. An Ambient station in a subdivision in the
southwest corner of Lee County has had over 7.25 inches of rain
today, on top of what fell yesterday, resulting in flash flooding
there this evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
Deep southwesterly flow will be in place between a trough to our
northwest and ridging to our east. At the surface, a meandering
front close to the Gulf coast won`t move much through the near term.
PWATs are well above 2 inches this morning and rainfall was fairly
widespread, though a slight decreasing trend has been noted in the
late morning hours but additional development is occurring over the
Gulf waters which is poised to move inland this afternoon. As these
waves of storms move further inland, PWATs are progged to decrease
somewhat in the Florida Big Bend while better PWATs move further
north into our northern and western sections. Have trended the
forecast in this direction as well.
CAMs show a slow decreasing trend in storm coverage mid to late
evening then a resurgence of convection first over the Gulf waters
and southern Alabama overnight moving inland in the predawn hours.
Much like a repeat of today for Tuesday, scattered to numerous
coverage throughout the area Tuesday.
Over the past 24 hours, the heaviest rainfall amounts have been in
the Wiregrass/Flint River Valley areas of Alabama/Georgia and south
of I10. Radar estimated rainfall amounts of 8+ inches has fallen in
southeast Alabama and adjacent southwest Georgia counties while 3-5
inches south of I10 closer to the coast in the Florida Panhandle. As
waves of heavy rainfall are forecast through Tuesday, the flood
watch continues until 8PM ET Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
Mid level trough to our northwest will gradually produce a closed
low later this week then moves west while a tropical wave pushes
towards the southeast Atlantic coast. Both of these features will
keep a break in the subtropical ridge and keep a fairly moist
airmass in place into the weekend. The stalled frontal boundary will
eventually wash out but will continue to provide focus for
convection development in the meantime. PWATs remain over 2 inches
for the most part and cross sections don`t show much dry air
intrusion into the column until next week. Therefore, summer-like
pattern will be in place featuring diurnally driven late morning
through late evening showers and storms with development overnight
over the Gulf waters. With the anticipated cloud cover and rain
chances, highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s and heat indices
reaching the low 100s each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
Various cloud ceilings are impacting terminals across the region
with IFR to VFR conditions with cloud decks gradually lifting for
the next couple hours as activity winds down. A lull overnight is
expected as showers and storms end after sunset. Patchy fog could
be possible at terminals as winds go near calm, low cigs are also
possible across DHN and ABY. After sunrise we`ll see showers and
storms again move onshore off the Gulf as they push northward
throughout the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
A stalled front will remain over the Gulf waters or just inland
over the next few days before washing out later this week. Light
to moderate southerly to southwesterly breezes will continue
through Tuesday before becoming more northerly Wednesday and
Thursday. As the front washes out, easterly flow takes over this
weekend. Late night and morning thunderstorms will be prevalent
during the late night and morning hours, when frequent lightning,
waterspouts, and reduced visibility in heavy rain should be
expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
A stalled cold front and a very moist air mass will
support numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of this
week, along with heavy rain and isolated flash flooding. Due to the
stabilizing effect of clouds, along with light transport winds,
pockets of poor afternoon dispersion are expected over Panhandle and
Wiregrass districts into Wednesday. After Wednesday, thunderstorms
will reduce to more typically scattered afternoon coverage, and
temperatures will run near normal through next weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025
A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Tuesday evening. Slow-
moving thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy amounts of
rain in a short amount of time, keeping concerns for flash flooding
in the forecast.
A stalled front will meander across the area into late week. Combine
that with ample moisture available with Precipitable Water Values
(PWATs) in excess of 2", or above the 75th percentile, and there`s
the potential for torrential rain. Rain rates of 2-3" per hour are
expected within the heaviest showers and storms. An additional 1" to
3" are possible with isolated spots of 8"+ still very much possible,
especially across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern
Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today.
On the riverine front, rises are expected along Spring Creek and the
Flint, but should remain in their banks. However, small streams and
creeks, plus urban areas, will be most prone to flash flooding.
More summer-like weather returns later this week with daily
afternoon showers and storms anticipated.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 74 91 74 91 / 40 70 20 70
Panama City 78 89 77 90 / 60 70 50 60
Dothan 72 86 71 87 / 60 80 30 60
Albany 72 89 71 87 / 60 80 50 60
Valdosta 73 92 73 92 / 50 70 30 70
Cross City 75 94 74 94 / 40 70 20 70
Apalachicola 80 89 79 90 / 50 70 40 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>019-027-108-112-
114-115-118-127-326-426.
High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
FLZ112-114-115.
GA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl