773
FXUS62 KTAE 070651
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

At the surface, high pressure sits to our north while a frontal
boundary sits well to our south. A drier airmass will move into the
area today, so look for clearing skies this morning with dry
conditions. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s for
much of the region, except perhaps the low 80s for the SE FL Big
Bend where cloud cover will hang on the longest. Overnight lows will
be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

A dry airmass should keep the area nearly rain free on Tuesday.
Then, attention turns to Hurricane Milton for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Based on the 11 pm NHC forecast, we will receive
some peripheral impacts from Milton with heavy rainfall and gusty
winds for the Southeast Florida Big Bend, and hazardous marine and
beach conditions. Residents should continue to monitor the progress
of Hurricane Milton on hurricanes.gov, especially those who are
still recovering from Helene.

Outside of potential tropical watches, a wind advisory may be needed
for parts of the area by mid-week due to a tightening pressure
gradient between Milton and high pressure north of the area,
especially for areas that are still recovering from Helene.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Milton is expected to be exiting the picture on Thursday. After
Milton exits, drier and cooler weather will prevail for the end of
the week into the weekend as high pressure builds into the area.
Highs are expected to range from the mid 70s to low 80s with morning
lows ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Ceilings will be gradually lifting and scattering out early this
morning as drier air moves into the region. Some brief patchy fog is
also possible early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

East to northeast winds will continue today with advisory conditions
for most of the area. Hurricane Milton is forecast to head east-
northeast to northeast through the middle of the week towards the
Florida peninsula and strengthen into a major hurricane. Winds and
seas are forecast to increase even more by mid-week as Milton`s
expanding wind field affects the area. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible each day until a cold front clears the area by mid
to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

The main fire weather concern will be pockets of high dispersions
for the next few days as transport winds increase ahead of Hurricane
Milton. The best chance of seeing rain and gusty winds from Milton
is expected to be across the southeast big bend and perhaps portions
of south-central Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Minor flooding continues for the lower Withlacoochee at Pinetta, but
that river is falling. The Suwannee River is rising, and it is
expected to go into minor flood stage in the next few days. The
Aucilla River at Lamont is currently in minor flood and is expected
to hold steady for a couple of days. Rainfall totals for this week,
excluding Milton, will be generally light enough to avoid additional
flooding concerns.

Regarding Milton, heavy rainfall potential in the southeast Big Bend
will hinge on track and evolution. For now, the Weather Prediction
Center has outlined a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in the
vicinity of Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette counties (level 3 of 4) for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll have to continue to monitor
trends in rainfall placement over the next several days to get a
better idea on any flash flood or heavy rain potential.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  65  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   86  68  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  64  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        86  64  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      85  63  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    83  69  85  71 /  20  10  10  20
Apalachicola  84  70  84  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD