537 FXUS62 KMFL 271921 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 321 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 South Florida remains situated between a dipole of surface ridging today, with a ridge axis present in the Gulf in conjunction with a separate foci in the western Atlantic. Not much more exciting when looking aloft as there is a lack of synoptic forcing across the region with quite the stagnant vertical column in place. This morning`s 12Z sounding and the latest model soundings show the continuance of a stout mid-level subsidence inversion that will continue to stifle any real rain chances (outside of a few shallow- layer stray isolated showers advecting into the east coast metro areas via easterly flow). Given the lack of any synoptic influence aloft, the mesoscale will dictate the weather regime once again today with winds veering onshore along both coasts during the afternoon hours. Can`t rule out an isolated shower this afternoon along the gulf breeze across inland southwestern Florida but overall rain chances remain lackluster. The amplification of a deep-layer ridge across the southeastern United States on Monday will slow the progression of a backdoor frontal boundary propagating southwestward across the Florida Peninsula occurring in tandem with a weak upper level shortwave ridge-riding. With the weak boundary on our doorstep, periphery moisture associated with the frontal boundary in tandem with diurnal heating and convergence (localized ascent along the gulf breeze boundary) could set the stage for a few isolated showers and storms across inland southwestern Florida. There will still be considerable amounts of low-level dry air to contend with but if an updraft is able to sustain long enough, forecast model soundings from CAMS such as the HRRR, RAFS, and RAP show enough marginal instability to get a thunderstorm going across inland southwestern Florida. Given how dry the vegetation has become across our area and the isolated nature of any rainfall, any lightning strike could potentially spark new wildfires. High temperatures will be similar this afternoon and once again on Monday. The warmest temperatures are forecast for inland southwestern Florida with widespread high temperatures in the low 90s. Along both the immediate gulf coast as well as the majority of the east coast metro, temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A rinse and repeat weather pattern will prevail for the rest of the work week into the weekend as easterly flow continues and we remain mostly dry. A weak frontal boundary will pass through, or what`s left of it, on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicates a slight rise in moisture (1.4-1.6") and potential for scattered light showers (30- 40%) across South Florida. The additional support of diurnal heating and sea breezes will help build quick-moving light showers during the afternoon. Unfortunately, the WPC QPF forecast is not optimistic about how much rainfall we will receive. Deep-layer ridging will remain established across the western Atlantic waters through the end of the week with light synoptic flow aloft. Subsidence and a consequent capping inversion will keep rainfall to a minimum. Outside of a few shallow-level stray showers, the stretch of dry and warmth will continue with drought conditions continuing to worsen. Under the easterly flow, expect highs to be a bit cooler on the east coast than the west, with mid to upper 80s east and low 90s west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR prevails for the 18Z TAF period. Winds out of the E/SE at 10-15 kts with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. E/SE winds lighten to around 5 kts tonight before increasing out of the east again tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Easterly winds are expected to remain for the rest of today and into early this week across our local Atlantic waters, with a light to gentle westerly breeze developing each afternoon across the Gulf waters. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Atlantic through Monday and a foot or less in the Gulf. Seas will start to rise in the Atlantic for the mid-week period as a moderate to fresh breeze re-develops. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A high risk of rip currents will prevail at Palm Beach county beaches today with a moderate risk of rip currents remaining across Broward and Miami-Dade beaches. As easterly flow remains with us for the foreseeable future, the elevated rip current will persist along the east coast for much of this upcoming work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Although winds will remain light across the region this afternoon, relative humidity values will drop to near or just below critical levels (low to mid 30s) across inland southwestern Florida. This may result in enhanced fire behavior as vegetation remains quite dry across these areas. Closer to both coasts, relative humidity values will remain well above thresholds as onshore flow moderates relative humidity values as sea-breezes move inland. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 84 73 82 / 0 10 10 20 West Kendall 68 87 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 71 86 72 84 / 0 10 10 20 Homestead 70 84 72 82 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 72 80 / 0 10 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 72 83 72 81 / 0 10 10 20 Pembroke Pines 72 87 73 85 / 0 10 10 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 71 81 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 71 85 72 82 / 0 10 20 20 Naples 68 88 68 87 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....JS/SH AVIATION...Redman