843 FXUS62 KTBW 131220 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida with a continued south to southwest flow. Deep moisture, precipitable water around 2 inches on morning TBW sounding, combined with the sea breeze will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast around midday/early afternoon. Majority of this convection will move into the interior by this evening, but southwest Florida is close enough to the ridge axis so that the overall flow will be rather light and allow a few showers and thunderstorms to move back toward the coast during the evening. Current forecast looks on track with no big changes needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots shifting to southwest to west near the coast this afternoon, then becoming light this evening and overnight. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with gusty and erratic winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Ridging to our north will start to shift south today however we will look to have one more day of southeasterly flow. This will result in afternoon and evening shower activity once again focused on the west coast of Florida. By Thursday ridging will be overhead and looks to stay that way through next Monday. This will result in a neutral flow pattern each day with the highest shower chances in the interior. The only real change to the pattern will be on Sunday and Monday when moisture starts to increase bringing PW around 2.25. This will result in higher then normal shower chances both days. && && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 As ridging pushes overhead winds will remain through Sunday with speeds mainly staying around 5 knots. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest for Today and Thursday before shifting north through the weekend. The best chance of showers and storms will still be overnight along the land breeze and in the evening hours as storms push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 81 94 81 / 50 20 50 10 FMY 94 78 93 78 / 40 20 60 30 GIF 96 78 96 78 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 92 79 92 79 / 50 20 40 20 BKV 93 76 94 76 / 60 10 40 10 SPG 90 81 90 81 / 50 20 40 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Davis/Ulevicius