700
FXUS62 KTBW 161845
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through midweek.

- Increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday
  and Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure over the southeast U.S. continues to dominate across
the region with the easterly flow bringing some stratocumulus
westward from the Atlantic Ocean. For tonight conditions look
favorable for another round of low clouds and some fog, especially
from around the I-4 corridor northward with temperatures several
degrees warmer than this morning. During Wednesday, the high will
drift out into the Atlantic Ocean as a cold front moves east into
the Mississippi Valley with a more southeasterly flow bringing a
gradual increase in low level moisture. The front will continue to
move east Thursday with southerly flow ahead of it bringing
deeper moisture into the region leading to some scattered showers
developing and moving into the Nature Coast during the morning,
then everywhere during the afternoon. The chance for showers and a
few thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night ahead of
the cold front. The boundary is expected to move southeast across
the region during Friday, but the deepest moisture will have moved
away so not expecting much more than a few light
showers/sprinkles as it moves across the area. Breezy northerly
winds will usher in some cooler drier air for Friday night and
Saturday as the next high pressure area moves into the southeast
states. The overall cool down will be brief though as the high
will move out into the western Atlantic Ocean Sunday with another
high pressure over the Ohio Valley building south helping to veer
the flow to easterly for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

There continue to be indications that more IFR/LIFR ceilings along
with some fog will develop later tonight into Wednesday morning,
especially from around the I-4 corridor northward. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail with northeast to east winds between
about 5 and 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure over the region will weaken through midweek with
winds and seas subsiding. A cold front will move through the
eastern gulf waters preceded by showers and a few thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another high pressure area will
build into the region with gusty northerly winds and seas into
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure over the region will weaken through midweek with a
warming trend and increasing low level moisture. A cold front will
move through the region with showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of
it Thursday into Friday. Another high pressure area will build into
the region with drier conditions returning for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  78  63  81 /   0   0  10  40
FMY  58  80  62  83 /   0   0   0  20
GIF  56  78  60  82 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  56  79  62  81 /   0   0  10  30
BKV  49  78  56  81 /   0   0  10  40
SPG  61  77  65  79 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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