753
FXUS62 KTBW 150653
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
253 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Activity has been quiet so far during the early morning hours
following a busy period yesterday with high localized rainfall
totals and severe weather scattered throughout the area. Invest 93L
is sitting just off the east coast of Florida and will move across
the state today, bringing about continued widespread weather
impacts. This area of low pressure is set to exit our coverage area
to the west by late Wednesday or Thursday, where it could then
develop into a tropical system as it heads away further to the west.
In terms of our local impacts from this system over the next few
days, very high chances of rainfall are forecast, stemming from high
amounts of associated precipitable water and instability present.
Generally, impacts from showers and thunderstorms could begin in the
late morning or early afternoon today, but the presence of a dry
slot in the trough over our area could see convection stifled some
before more moisture moves in shortly after. There is a high
confidence for activity in the afternoon into the evening, with
precipitation chances exceeding 80% across the area.

The Weather Prediction Center has tagged our area with a Slight Risk
(at least 15%) of excessive rainfall. Therefore, there is the
potential for localized flash flooding. Be sure to have multiple
ways to receive weather alerts. Remember to turn around anytime you
come across water over the road.

Highs are expected to be around 90 degrees for the next two days. It
is worth mentioning that today, our northernmost counties could see
temperatures a few degrees higher into the low 90s due to the
aforementioned dry slot being most prominent over that spot. This
would work to limit cloud cover and precipitation during daytime
hours, allowing temperatures to climb a bit higher there. Lows are
forecast in the low to mid 90s. As we get later in the week and the
low pressure system moves away, southeasterly flow should set in,
which would see a return to a more historically typical Florida
summertime pattern with showers and thunderstorms mostly occurring
in the afternoon. Additionally, with later activity expected, highs
are shown to rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Surface trough/low moving across the state today will spell
another round of showers and storms across terminals mainly for
the afternoon and evening hours. MVFR/LCL IFR cigs/vsbys most
likely in the mid afternoon through early evening timeframe as
convection develops/pushes across the area, generally diminishing
by mid to late evening with VFR returning. Winds light/variable
through morning before increasing to SW-NW in afternoon with
higher gusts in/near convection, diminishing to E-SE in evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Poor marine conditions likely for much of the rest of the week as
a tropical disturbance emerges and moves west across the waters
after moving across the peninsula today. Increasing S/SE winds on
Wednesday remain elevated through the remainder of the week in
response, with periods of showers and storms likely as moisture is
drawn over the waters in association with the disturbance. Winds
approaching cautionary levels likely over the next few days with
associated seas, and locally higher winds and seas in/near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Abundant moisture across the area through the period will lead to
minimal fire concerns, with numerous showers and storms expected
over the next few days, although elevated dispersions will be
possible on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  89  79 /  90  60 100  50
FMY  89  75  90  76 /  90  50  90  40
GIF  89  75  91  76 /  90  30  90  10
SRQ  89  75  89  76 /  80  60  90  50
BKV  91  72  91  72 /  90  60 100  40
SPG  88  77  86  78 /  80  70 100  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poggiali
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Close