843
FXUS62 KTBW 131220
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Surface ridge axis will remain across south Florida with a
continued south to southwest flow. Deep moisture, precipitable
water around 2 inches on morning TBW sounding, combined with the
sea breeze will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop near the coast around midday/early afternoon. Majority of
this convection will move into the interior by this evening, but
southwest Florida is close enough to the ridge axis so that the
overall flow will be rather light and allow a few showers and
thunderstorms to move back toward the coast during the evening.
Current forecast looks on track with no big changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots shifting to southwest to
west near the coast this afternoon, then becoming light this
evening and overnight. MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Ridging to our north will start to shift south today however we will
look to have one more day of southeasterly flow. This will result in
afternoon and evening shower activity once again focused on the west
coast of Florida.

By Thursday ridging will be overhead and looks to stay that way
through next Monday. This will result in a neutral flow pattern each
day with the highest shower chances in the interior. The only real
change to the pattern will be on Sunday and Monday when moisture
starts to increase bringing PW around 2.25. This will result in
higher then normal shower chances both days. &&

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

As ridging pushes overhead winds will remain through
Sunday with speeds mainly staying around 5 knots. Winds will remain
out of the south and southwest for Today and Thursday before
shifting north through the weekend. The best chance of showers and
storms will still be overnight along the land breeze and in the
evening hours as storms push off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  81  94  81 /  50  20  50  10
FMY  94  78  93  78 /  40  20  60  30
GIF  96  78  96  78 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  92  79  92  79 /  50  20  40  20
BKV  93  76  94  76 /  60  10  40  10
SPG  90  81  90  81 /  50  20  40  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Davis/Ulevicius