241
FXUS62 KTBW 141256
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
856 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Bluebird skies and benign weather conditions today with stacked
ridging over the region as afternoon temps warm to around climate
normals. Latest grids and forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue with mainly clear skies and light winds
then seabreezing by early afternoon, before diminishing to
light/variable tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Quiet conditions expected through the week as ridging aloft
continues building over the region today, while surface high
pressure ridges across the state from the Gulf into the W Atlantic.
Ridging aloft briefly weakens on Tuesday into Wednesday as a
shortwave and attendant surface low pressure system pushes across
SE Canada and the NE/Mid-Atlantic U.S., dragging a cold front
across the peninsula late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Limited
moisture in place across the state ahead of the front coupled
with PW values recovering only to around 1-1.25 inches immediately
preceding the front look to keep any appreciable associated rain
chances to a minimum. Despite the lack of precip, the front will
bring a brief reinforcing shot of drier and slightly cooler air
for the mid week period, followed by ridging aloft and at the
surface again building across the area during the latter half of
the week into the weekend with warming temps.

Highs warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon under mostly
sunny skies, followed by highs a few degrees cooler on Tuesday
for most of the area away from the south/central interior as
increasing westerly winds ahead of the approaching front push
slightly cooler air from over the Gulf inland. Winds shift
northerly on Wednesday behind the front advecting drier air into
the state into Thursday, before gradually shifting to easterly
over the latter half of the week favoring increasing Atlantic
moisture across the peninsula. Temps warm into the upper 80s to
lower 90s over the latter half of the week and into the weekend,
potentially challenging a few record highs locally.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

High pressure over the waters for most of the period with no
headlines currently expected. A dry cold front pushes across the
waters Tuesday into Wednesday followed by increased northerly
post-frontal winds and associated seas on Wednesday into Thursday
before diminishing late week into the weekend as high pressure
builds over the waters. Winds easterly late week through the
weekend, turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon with the
sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Dry conditions continue through the week with critical RHs likely
from the late morning through afternoon hours for most of the
peninsula. Moisture slowly recovers through Tuesday before a dry
cold front pushes across the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing
a reinforcing shot of drier air for mid week, followed by gradual
improvement late week into the weekend as easterly flow increases
Atlantic moisture across the peninsula. While winds are expected
to remain below Red Flag criteria threshold, conditions will
remain closely monitored given critically low RHs and Moderate
significant fire potential expected to remain in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  86  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  88  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  82  65  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  84  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  80  68  79  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW