453
FXUS62 KTAE 240730
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
230 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Fog, locally dense at times, is expected tonight and over the
  next few mornings into the weekend. Those commuting or traveling
  during the overnight hours or in the morning should be prepared
  for slow downs or delays.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through the weekend. Highs in
  the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. These temperatures are
  10-15F above climatological averages for this time of year. Next
  cool down not likely until early next week.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Upper level ridge will control the sensible weather through the
rest of the week and into the weekend. This will lead to several
days of temperatures well above normal for this time of year.
While northwesterly upper level flow will prevail, surface high
pressure will meander across the forecast area with low-level
winds eventually becoming southwesterly by the end of the week and
upcoming weekend.

Given light winds and slowly increasing low-level moisture, areas
of dense fog will continue to remain the primary forecast concern
the next few mornings. The dense fog chances will primarily be
highest across the Panhandle, and Big Bend, but as low-level
moisture returns to the rest of the inland forecast zones by the
weekend more widespread fog is expected.

This stagnant pattern of warm and foggy conditions will continue
until early next week when the next strong push of cold air moves
through. Ensemble guidance continues to remain in excellent
agreement on the pattern change. While we won`t see much rain, if
any, with this system, there is good consensus that Tuesday`s
high temperatures could be the coldest of the 2025-2026 winter
season so far. However, those details are still to be refined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Dense fog with VLIFR conditions will continue to push from ECP
toward TLH and DHN in the next couple hours. Fog, potentially dense,
will develop near ABY and VLD closer to 10z. This may be slow to
erode after sunrise with most sites becoming VFR again after 16z.
Around 00z, fog will begin to redevelop near ECP again, becoming
dense with at least LIFR conditions, if not VLIFR, expected prior to
the end of the TAF cycle. Fog will also encroach on DHN and TLH by
05-06z with another round of dense fog beyond then.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Main maritime concern will be the potential for sea fog,
especially across nearshore waters and bays beginning tonight into
the latter part of the week. Fog potential will be greatest in the
late evening to morning hours.

Otherwise, favorable marine conditions are expected into the
weekend as high pressure will dominate across the northern Gulf
with light and variable winds prevailing. The next frontal system
doesn`t look to arrive until early next week and advisory
conditions are likely on Monday following the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure will be in control through Thursday
and fire concerns should remain on the lower side into the
weekend given the absence of any significant dry air. The only
concerns through Christmas Day will be periods of low
dispersions, especially along the Florida Panhandle and coastline
the next few days, and fog in the overnight hours. Our next
frontal system moves in early next week with very low wetting
rain chances. Much cooler temperatures and drier air is expected
with this front. Although below-average temperatures will temper
some fire concerns, gusty northerly winds and low RHs could bring
some fire concerns into the forecast next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

High pressure will set up across the southeast CONUS into the
weekend with the next cold front not arriving until late in the
weekend or early next week. Therefore, little to no rainfall is
expected over the next seven days. For more information on
local impacts from drought, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  55  72  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        76  53  76  52 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        78  52  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  55  70  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ007>015-108-112-114-115-326-426.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ735-751-752-755.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs