204 FXUS62 KMFL 262246 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 646 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 GOES-19 Geocolor visible imagery early this afternoon depicts a vast expanse of low-topped cumulus over the land areas of South Florida due a thin/shallow moisture layer just above the surface. ACARS observed soundings from area airports depict a substantial dry layer from 900mb throughout the entirety of the vertical column courtesy of a plume of Saharan Dust aloft and continued mid-level ridging. Precipitable water values from these observed soundings remain near daily minimum lows according to the SPC Sounding Climatology Page. Forecast from the midnight shift remains on track, a very quiet albeit hot and hazy late July afternoon and evening remains in store for our area. Heat indices will remain below heat advisory thresholds thanks to in large part this drier air aloft mixing down to the surface. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 High pressure surface and aloft extending from the Carolinas to just off the NE Florida coast will be the dominant weather feature over the area this weekend. As advertised over the past few days, unusually dry air associated with the high and a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) led to a record-daily-low precipitable water (PWAT) value of 1.14" in the Miami sounding from 00z (mean value for this time of year is 1.8 inches). The high pressure area will expand this weekend as it moves west, with the center of the high across the SE United States and NE Gulf waters late Sunday. A NE wind flow on the back/east side of the high will maintain the dry air mass across South Florida, with PWAT values ranging from 1.2 to 1.3 inches today increasing to 1.4 to 1.6 inches on Sunday as the core of the dry air moves west of the area. Latest and forecast soundings show a solid inversion in the 900 mb layer which will result in minimal convection today outside of perhaps one or two late afternoon showers attempting to form along the Gulf sea breeze over southern and eastern Collier County. The slight increase in moisture on Sunday may be able to support a few more showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf sea breeze Sunday afternoon over SW Florida, and we`re keeping Sunday PoPs in the 20-30% range over these areas. With the lack of precipitation/cloud cover, temperatures will be able to soar this weekend, especially over the Everglades where max temperatures this weekend will top in the upper 90s. The NBM seems to be handling temperatures well, and even shows greater than 50% probabilities of max temps exceeding 99F over eastern Collier County. Highs in the lower to mid 90s will be common everywhere else, except near 90F at the Atlantic beaches where E/NE winds will modify temperatures. A favorable aspect of the dry air over the region is lower surface dewpoints resulting from mixing of the dry air to the surface. Dewpoints are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s over portions of the Everglades, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere, which should prevent heat index values from reaching advisory criteria over a large enough area for the required duration. Nevertheless, heat index values over 100-105F for a good portion of the day are enough to lead to heat illness if precautions are not taken. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the AC, and always look before you lock your vehicle for pets and children. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The large high pressure will continue to shift west early next week, eventually allowing for a weak 850-500 mb trough/shear axis over the central subtropical Atlantic to approach South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature, combined with a TUTT low, will shift the mean wind flow out of the SE beginning on Tuesday and continuing through most of next week. This will open up a bit more of a moisture channel into South Florida as we progress through the week, however ensemble mean PWAT values only modestly increase into the 1.7-1.9 inch range, near normal for late July. The trend of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will follow suit, with convection gradually increasing in coverage from Monday onward. The prevailing E/SE wind flow will favor morning showers across SE Florida and afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across interior and SW Florida areas. Interestingly, models show lingering SAL over the Bahamas and Florida through mid-week, an indication that there may still be a decent amount of stability in the low/mid levels. This is reflected in PoPs that stay below normal over SE Florida (20-40%) and increasing to 50-60% interior and Gulf coast. Wouldn`t be surprised if PoPs may end up having to be increased over SE Florida at times during the week depending on any patches of higher low- level moisture embedded in the E/SE flow transiting through the area. Temperatures will continue above normal, well in the 90s over most areas for the majority of the long term. In fact, the NBM is showing max temps in the mid to upper 90s over a fairly large area from west of Lake Okeechobee to the eastern Everglades during much of the week. This is supported by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) showing temperatures close to the upper end of the forecast distribution of the ensembles. This combined with dewpoints slowly increasing to more seasonable levels will elevate heat concerns and we`ll continue to monitor temperature and humidity trends over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR and dry throughout the 00z TAF forecast period. L/V winds expected shortly overnight with northeasterly surface winds picking up after sunrise on Sunday. A gulf breeze will materialize once again at KAPF between 17-19z. Rain chances remain too low at KAPF on sunday to warrant the inclusion of VCSH/VCTS at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 High pressure over Florida today will shift west into the Gulf Sunday and Monday, and weaken during next week into a ridge across Central Florida. This will keep winds generally 10 knots or less, except near the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoons when a seabreeze will cause periods of winds of 10-15 knots. Seas are expected to remain 3 feet or less through the period. Little in the way of showers and thunderstorms is expected through the weekend, with a gradual increase next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The rip current risk will remain somewhat elevated at the Atlantic beaches today, then decrease Sunday through next week. Little to no precipitation is expected this weekend, with a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms next week following a pattern of morning/midday along the Atlantic beaches and afternoon/evening at the Gulf beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 79 92 / 0 10 20 20 West Kendall 75 93 76 93 / 0 10 10 20 Opa-Locka 78 94 78 94 / 0 10 20 20 Homestead 77 91 78 91 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 79 91 / 0 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 20 20 Pembroke Pines 80 95 81 95 / 0 10 20 20 West Palm Beach 77 92 78 92 / 0 10 0 10 Boca Raton 78 93 78 93 / 0 10 10 10 Naples 78 95 78 95 / 10 20 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Molleda LONG TERM....Molleda AVIATION...Hadi