241 FXUS62 KTBW 141256 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 856 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Bluebird skies and benign weather conditions today with stacked ridging over the region as afternoon temps warm to around climate normals. Latest grids and forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with mainly clear skies and light winds then seabreezing by early afternoon, before diminishing to light/variable tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Quiet conditions expected through the week as ridging aloft continues building over the region today, while surface high pressure ridges across the state from the Gulf into the W Atlantic. Ridging aloft briefly weakens on Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave and attendant surface low pressure system pushes across SE Canada and the NE/Mid-Atlantic U.S., dragging a cold front across the peninsula late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Limited moisture in place across the state ahead of the front coupled with PW values recovering only to around 1-1.25 inches immediately preceding the front look to keep any appreciable associated rain chances to a minimum. Despite the lack of precip, the front will bring a brief reinforcing shot of drier and slightly cooler air for the mid week period, followed by ridging aloft and at the surface again building across the area during the latter half of the week into the weekend with warming temps. Highs warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies, followed by highs a few degrees cooler on Tuesday for most of the area away from the south/central interior as increasing westerly winds ahead of the approaching front push slightly cooler air from over the Gulf inland. Winds shift northerly on Wednesday behind the front advecting drier air into the state into Thursday, before gradually shifting to easterly over the latter half of the week favoring increasing Atlantic moisture across the peninsula. Temps warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the latter half of the week and into the weekend, potentially challenging a few record highs locally. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 High pressure over the waters for most of the period with no headlines currently expected. A dry cold front pushes across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday followed by increased northerly post-frontal winds and associated seas on Wednesday into Thursday before diminishing late week into the weekend as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds easterly late week through the weekend, turning onshore near the coast in the afternoon with the sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Dry conditions continue through the week with critical RHs likely from the late morning through afternoon hours for most of the peninsula. Moisture slowly recovers through Tuesday before a dry cold front pushes across the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of drier air for mid week, followed by gradual improvement late week into the weekend as easterly flow increases Atlantic moisture across the peninsula. While winds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria threshold, conditions will remain closely monitored given critically low RHs and Moderate significant fire potential expected to remain in place. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 86 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 88 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 82 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 84 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 80 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW DECISION SUPPORT...TBW UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW