469
FXUS62 KTBW 111743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates an
upper level ridge across the region. This high pressure extends down
to the surface with a weak high centered just to the west over the
Gulf. This mornings 12z sounding indicated 1.70 inches of PW.
These values are near average for early to mid July. Overall,
showers/storms have been isolated at best. Models show the best
moisture is to the south and east of the area where there is
southeasterly flow. Current visible satellite imagery indicates a
better cu field across south and southwest Florida. Due to these
factors, have the highest PoPs for these areas in the forecast for
later this afternoon and into the evening. Most activity should
come to an end near or shortly after sunset.

Similar conditions are forecast on Saturday the low level ridge
begins to shift a bit more to the north and west. The better
moisture will nudge a bit further northwards and expect the better
PoP chances (> 50%) will push as far north as the I-4 corridor.
High temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 90s with
heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. Any afternoon/evening
showers/storms should come to an end near or shortly after sunset.

The ridge begins to break down some on Sunday as a weak trough
approaches from the east. Models vary some on how strong this trough
is. Regardless, PW being to climb to near 2 inches for most of the
area on Sunday with values around 2.25 inches on Monday. These
values are over the 90th percentile for early to mid July. Due to
this, chances for shower/storms will begin to increase on Sunday to
around 50-70% and continuing to rise to around 70-90% on Monday. The
wetter pattern will continue throughout much of the upcoming work
week. Highs will also cool slightly down into the upper 80s to low
90s for much of the upcoming week. The pattern shifts mid to late
week back to more of a seasonal seabreeze pattern. Heavy rainfall
may become a concern next week with several rounds of heavy rain.
WPC has the area outlined with a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions currently across the terminals. VCTS is currently
ongoing at PGD and expect the southern terminals will continue
with the best chances for showers/storms throughout the afternoon
and into the evening hours. Therefore, have VCTS mentioned at
KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. Additionally, have VCTS mentioned at KLAL
but not as confident there. Any ongoing convection should come to
an end around 00z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast
throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure will continue to control weather conditions over
the waters through the weekend. Showers and storms could develop
early, but higher chances are expected in the evening. Relatively
light winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through the
period...except locally gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity
of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure will remain over west central and southwest Florida
through the weekend.  No fire weather hazards expected through the
weekend as afternoon minimum relative humidity values will remain
well above critical levels each day. Chances for showers/storms
will begin to increase early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  79  93 /  10  60  20  40
FMY  75  94  77  93 /  20  80  20  70
GIF  76  95  77  95 /  30  70  10  60
SRQ  77  92  77  92 /  10  60  20  40
BKV  73  94  73  93 /  10  50  10  40
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  10  60  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard