953 FXUS62 KTBW 271140 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 High pressure will continue to dominate today, with very warm and dry weather for most of the day. Late this afternoon and evening some moisture will begin to move in from the north as the frontal boundary gets closer and this combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes could lead to a few showers over the interior north of Interstate 4. Further south there actually could be just enough moisture to see a stray light shower/sprinkle over inland areas this evening, but overall coverage will remain less than 10 percent. Have made some minor adjustments to include the slight chance of showers this evening, otherwise remainder of forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 740 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light southeast winds early this morning will shift to westerly and increase to around 10 knots this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. Winds will diminish and become light east to southeast later this evening and overnight. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure aloft remains centered well west of the region this morning with the surface ridge axis extending across the southern part of the peninsula. This will keep warm and dry conditions across the region again today, with highs in the lower to mid 90s (mid to upper 80s at the coast). Similar to the past few days, a few of these highs will near records, especially for locations away from the coast. For Monday into Tuesday, a frontal boundary will move toward the region and eventually dissipate across northern Florida. Higher moisture associated with this boundary will move over the region Monday afternoon and Monday night, and this will help bring us some showers and a few thunderstorms. The best rain chances will be for the northern half of the forecast area and generally away from the immediate coast as the sea breeze forms and shifts inland. Rainfall amounts do not look overly exciting, however, and the high-end rainfall forecast is only up to about 0.5 inches, meaning there is a 90% chance that we see less than that. Rain chances linger Tuesday afternoon with the sea breeze, but moisture definitely decreases from Monday, so overall chances and amounts are lower. High pressure builds back in for the rest of the week, with warm and dry conditions returning. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the region today, with east to southeast winds becoming onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon. For Monday into Tuesday, an approaching frontal boundary will bring some showers and a few thunderstorms, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week. No headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure remains over the region today, with dry and warm conditions continuing. Relative humidity values will drop to the lower 30s for portions of the interior, though winds will remain below Red Flag criteria. Moisture will increase Monday and Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the region and brings showers and a few thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 30 20 FMY 91 67 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 94 67 92 69 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 88 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 BKV 94 62 93 65 / 0 10 40 20 SPG 88 72 88 72 / 0 0 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Pearce