798
FXUS62 KTBW 250534
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
134 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

In the upper levels, dominant ridging will remain parked over the
southeastern US through early next week as a series of inverted
troughs/lows pass west across the Florida Straits into the Gulf. At
the surface, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will
gradually shift west into Florida this weekend, bringing subsidence
and a drier airmass into the area from the southeast beginning
tonight. As a result, enough moisture will still be present today
under southeast flow to allow for scattered showers and storms,
with the highest chances along and just inland of the west coast.
As subsidence and dry air works into the region tonight and
Saturday, rain chances will be extremely limited by summer
standards, with most areas only forecast to see 10-20% coverage
Saturday afternoon. By Sunday and Monday, the surface ridge will
have passed into the northeastern Gulf, with northeast flow
starting to bring moisture back in and allowing for scattered
afternoon coverage. Moisture continues to rise Tuesday through
Thursday as a surface trough builds into the eastern seaboard
centered north of Florida, resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Apart from the rain chances, the subsidence will also bring
increasing temperatures and heat indices this weekend through the
first half of next week. While afternoon temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 90s by Saturday afternoon, the lower surface
dewpoints should keep heat indices in check. However, the above
normal afternoon temperatures will stick around Sunday through
Tuesday as the surface dew points creep back up resulting in heat
indices reaching heat advisory criteria each day beginning Sunday.
As the ridging aloft moves away Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures and heat indices are expected to moderate back to
near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

VFR conditions should hold through the morning, then scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area between
around 20z and 00z. Periods of gusty winds and reduced flight
categories will be possible as storms pass near area terminals.
Rain free and VFR conditions will return after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

High pressure is building into Florida from the Atlantic as the
surface trough in the Gulf retreats away to the west, setting up
southeast flow over the coastal waters today and Saturday. Drier air
filling into the area will limit thunderstorm chances tonight
through Saturday night, then moisture begins to return early next
week, with daily thunderstorms producing locally hazardous boating
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Drier air fills in through the weekend, but humidity will not drop
to critically low levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  94  81 /  50  10  20  10
FMY  94  75  97  77 /  40   0  10   0
GIF  94  76  97  77 /  40  10  10   0
SRQ  92  76  94  77 /  50  10  10  10
BKV  93  73  95  75 /  50  10  20  10
SPG  91  80  92  81 /  50  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming