786
FXUS62 KTBW 130749
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
249 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
The U/L pattern has amplified across the CONUS with an U/L trough
over the plains and an extensive downstream ridge running from
Florida north through eastern Canada. Pattern is currently
progressive and the trough will push across the Mississippi River
Valley today with the ridge axis along the eastern seaboard. On
Thursday and Friday, the trough axis will push to the east coast
of the U.S. and move offshore with heights lowering over the
Florida peninsula. While upstream the next strong disturbance
pushes onshore the west coast of the U.S. inducing downstream
ridging over the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. Over the
weekend, brief split flow pattern will develop along the west
coast with an U/L low cutting off near northern Baja, with the
northern stream riding over the cutoff from the Pacific northwest
to the northern Plains. An U/L ridge will build over the Gulf of
Mexico and Florida peninsula.

The cutoff low near Baja will begin to open up and eject
northeast, and will be absorbed into the northern stream early
next week over the central plains, with a rather deep cut-off low
developing over the northern Mississippi Valley, with the trough
axis extending south through the plains. A tropical system may
also be moving into the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously, and the
positioning/extent of the aforementioned trough will likely play
a key role in steering the tropical system next Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Development of these two features will need to be
closely monitored over the next several days.

At the surface, strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will
build over the Florida peninsula today with partly cloudy skies and
gusty easterly winds developing, which will persist into tonight.
Strong large scale subsidence remains over the forecast area, so
temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic
normals. Increasing high cloudiness will develop late today and into
tonight well ahead of a cold front approaching the western Florida
panhandle. The front will push across west central and southwest
Florida on Friday associated, with the previously mentioned U/L
trough, with temperatures dropping back near climatic normals over
the weekend. The surface high will push east of the area early next
week with southeast return flow developing. Will have to closely
monitor a tropical disturbance, currently over the central
Caribbean, which could potentially move from the western Caribbean
to the Gulf of Mexico sometime around next Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
Areas of VFR CIGs 050-060 will occur early this morning mainly
south of I-4. Skies will become partly cloudy after sunrise with
SCT040-050 and SCT250 across the region. Breezy east winds will
also develop by this afternoon at all terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
SCEC conditions will develop today, with a period of SCA
conditions late this afternoon into tonight. Winds will gradually
drop back below advisory levels late tonight, and below SCEC
levels on Thursday. A cold front will push across the waters on
Friday and may create another period of SCEC conditions into
Friday night.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels. Gusty east winds today will create high dispersions across
much of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  69  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  87  68  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  86  68  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  87  68  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  86  64  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  85  71  82  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby