064 FXUS62 KMLB 242340 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 740 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Scattered showers and storms continue across the area this afternoon with lightning and heavy rain the primary threats. - Another dome of high pressure will settle over the area Friday and beyond, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures and heat indices. - Dangerous, long-lasting heat forecast this weekend into early next week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has developed and continues to slowly move inland this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are observed along and west of the sea breeze, especially across the Treasure Coast counties. Steering flow will continue to direct storm activity north and west through the remainder of the afternoon with peak coverage expected across the far interior (~60%). Primary storm hazards remain frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out a weak wet microburst which could be capable of producing convective wind gusts up to 45 mph. Rain chances gradually dwindle after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Temperatures mostly reaching the low 90s this afternoon will fall through the 80s this evening. Conditions remain mild overnight with lows in the mid 70s across the interior and mid/upper 70s along the coast. Friday-Wedneday (modified previous)...Dome of high pressure over the Carolina coast on Fri (596dm) builds over FL and strengthens to 598dm over GA Sun as it gradually retrogrades westward to the lower MS Valley. Assocd subsidence and compressional warming will produce decreasing rain chances and increasing heat. Continued to lower rain chances Fri with the afternoon package (20-30%) and have reasonable confidence of very low rain chances Sat and Sun (10-30%). In addition, the low level ridge axis will be near or over central FL this weekend producing light and variable wind over the interior and only a weak sea breeze along the coast of 5-10 mph. Temperatures warm a degree or two each day, with widespread mid to upper 90s across the interior this weekend with Mon currently looking like the hottest of all the days. Even the immediate coast will reach the lower 90s. High humidity will increase peak heat index values up to 108 Fri and 110 Sat-Sun. We are monitoring for the potential for even higher heat indices Mon-Tue. Regardless, this upcoming heatwave looks to be the most significant so far this summer with Major to Extreme HeatRisk across much of EC FL, including the I-4 corridor and metro Orlando. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not all, of east central Florida through the weekend and into early next week. Residents and visitors are encouraged to follow the forecast and plan to take the proper heat safety actions to prevent heat stress and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure builds into early next week keeping favorable boating conditions. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts on Friday become light and variable in vicinity of the surface ridge axis this weekend. A weak sea breeze is forecast to develop along the coast each day. Seas build 2-3 ft through Friday, diminishing to 1-2 ft through Monday. Mostly dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Lingering showers, mainly across the interior, this evening. This activity will dissipate or move out of the local area over the next hour or two. Overnight, light southeast winds will prevail with dry conditions. Southeast winds will increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning. Gusty conditions are forecast along the coast, so have maintained gusts of 18-20KT along the coast starting in the morning (14-16Z). Overall coverage of showers and storms will be below normal for this time of year. However, guidance is showing the greatest potential across the interior in the afternoon. So have added VCTS for MCO-SFB-ISM-LEE starting at 19-20Z. TEMPOS have not been added as confidence is not high enough, but may be added in later TAF packages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 75 93 / 10 30 0 10 MCO 76 94 75 97 / 20 30 10 20 MLB 78 91 75 92 / 10 20 0 10 VRB 75 92 72 92 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 77 93 77 95 / 30 30 10 20 SFB 77 94 75 96 / 10 30 0 20 ORL 77 94 76 97 / 20 30 10 20 FPR 75 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Watson