838 FXUS62 KMLB 271724 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 - A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area beaches today - Warmer today with near record highs for some interior locations; isolated showers late in the day west of the Orlando metro. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida this afternoon and early evening - Sensitive fire weather conditions continue today and into this week - Limited chance of showers Monday along the coast (20-30%), with better chance (up to 50%) over the interior with occasional lightning strikes && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies. A weak "cool" front is situated over the western Atlantic and the southeastern US to the north of east central Florida which extends from low pressure (~1001mb) near the Maine coast. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 70s with dew points in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are generally light from the south-southwest at 4-8mph. Mostly dry weather is expected today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop over portions of Lake, northern Volusia, western Seminole, and western Orange county into the late afternoon and evening (mainly between 4PM-9PM) as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Winds are expected to back onshore into the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze at around 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph. Seasonable to above normal high temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the mid 80s to mid 90s are forecast over the interior to the west of I-95 under. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to approach near records at the Orlando Sanford International Airport (record high of 95 in 2017) and the Leesburg International Airport (record high of 93 in 2017). There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of east central Florida. This level of heat effects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Today...Weak high pressure ridge will remain draped across central FL, just shifted a bit south. This will result in a slightly delayed sea breeze, esp north of the Cape, so max temps will reach the mid 80s coast (even upper 80s Volusia coast) before the sea breeze knocks those temps down a bit this aftn. Max temps over the interior will reach the lower 90s, even a few mid 90s possible. Leesburg will have the best chance to equal/exceed its record high of 93F. A weakening/decaying frontal boundary across the deep South extending offshore GA will temporarily lose momentum and stall. While most areas will remain dry today, a slight increase in moisture across northern sections (PWATs ~1.25") should be sufficient to generate isolated showers as the seas breeze interacts with larger lake breezes (Lake George) and eventually a collision with the west coast sea breeze over Lake county/Villages late in the day. A small (1 FT) but very long period (13-14 sec) background ENE swell is impacting the surf zone. After collaborating with WFOs JAX and MIA, we have raised a High risk of rip currents at the beaches. On Mon, the decaying front and its assocd moisture will be shunted SW across the area as reinforcing high pressure pushes SE off the Carolina coast. With PWATs increasing ~1.5", isolated to scattered showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and isolated lightning storms are forecast. This represents the best chance for rain in some time for parts of the area but most coastal locations esp south of the Cape will not see any rain. The best chance for showers and storms will be over the interior sections in the afternoon sparked by sea breeze interactions. There, a few of these storms Mon aftn/eve could be strong containing gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any lightning strikes will bring the risk of sparking brush fires. Tue-Sat...Breezy onshore flow coupled with sufficient low level moisture will support isolated onshore-moving showers from the Atlc early Tue. Drier air is forecast to advect from the east Wed-Thu as the ridge axis settles south into central FL so will maintain a dry forecast with PoPs 10% or less. The breezy onshore flow Tue will hold max temps to the lower 80s coast and mid 80s interior. But warming up mid week, reaching the lower 90s interior and mid 80s coast by Thu. Ridge axis slips south of the area by Fri which will promote a more S/SW flow, delaying the sea breeze and producing warmer max temps at the coast. Fri daytime looks mostly dry but a sea breeze collision on the east side of the peninsula late in the day may harness enough meager low level moisture and and instability aloft to generate isolated storms into Fri eve. A slightly better chance (~30%) for sea breeze storms exists on Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 A weak Atlantic ridge axis will remain over the area today with light winds enhanced by the sea breeze near the coast in the afternoon. Reinforcing high pressure will push southeast and off the mid Atlantic coast Monday. Remnants of a decaying frontal boundary and its associated moisture will push southwest across the area, generating isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms Monday and Monday night. Breezy east winds around 15 knots Mon night and Tue will build seas 4 to 6 FT and produce poor boating conditions. A Caution headline looks likely for the offshore waters. Then high pressure ridge axis settles southward toward central FL and the adjacent Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday resulting in decreasing winds and subsiding seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Pulled VCSH from all TAFs but KLEE due to shower chances decreasing in latest guidance and very dry observations. Sea breeze collision in vicinity of KLEE continues low but mentionable shower chances there. Continue to keep thunder mention out due to very low chances. E-ESE winds 8-12 kts decrease after around 22Z, becoming light/variable after around 04Z. Patchy ground fog possible in the early morning again. Winds out of the ESE-ENE wake back up late morning Monday, increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Shower chances increase Monday after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Very warm and dry conditions are forecast today with continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower to near 35% across the interior this afternoon while holding above 40 percent along the coast where dewpoints and humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday as moisture and onshore winds increase before reducing back to 35-40% over the interior on Wednesday. Light winds today will be enhanced by an East sea breeze with speeds 10-15 mph. Maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior today with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally Good dispersion values are forecast today with Generally Good to Very Good Dispersions on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (~20-30% chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the potential to spark brush fires given the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 83 68 80 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 67 90 69 82 / 10 30 30 20 MLB 65 83 70 80 / 0 20 30 20 VRB 62 84 69 81 / 0 20 30 20 LEE 69 90 69 85 / 20 50 30 20 SFB 68 88 68 83 / 10 30 30 20 ORL 69 88 69 83 / 10 30 30 20 FPR 62 84 69 80 / 0 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Haley