064
FXUS62 KMLB 242340
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
740 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

- Scattered showers and storms continue across the area this
  afternoon with lightning and heavy rain the primary threats.

- Another dome of high pressure will settle over the area Friday
  and beyond, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures
  and heat indices.

- Dangerous, long-lasting heat forecast this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Current-Tonight... The east coast sea breeze has developed and
continues to slowly move inland this afternoon. Scattered showers
and storms are observed along and west of the sea breeze, especially
across the Treasure Coast counties. Steering flow will continue
to direct storm activity north and west through the remainder of
the afternoon with peak coverage expected across the far interior
(~60%). Primary storm hazards remain frequent lightning strikes
and locally heavy rainfall. Cannot rule out a weak wet microburst
which could be capable of producing convective wind gusts up to
45 mph. Rain chances gradually dwindle after sunset with loss of
daytime heating. Temperatures mostly reaching the low 90s this
afternoon will fall through the 80s this evening. Conditions
remain mild overnight with lows in the mid 70s across the interior
and mid/upper 70s along the coast.

Friday-Wedneday (modified previous)...Dome of high pressure over the
Carolina coast on Fri (596dm) builds over FL and strengthens to
598dm over GA Sun as it gradually retrogrades westward to the lower
MS Valley. Assocd subsidence and compressional warming will produce
decreasing rain chances and increasing heat. Continued to lower rain
chances Fri with the afternoon package (20-30%) and have reasonable
confidence of very low rain chances Sat and Sun (10-30%). In
addition, the low level ridge axis will be near or over central FL
this weekend producing light and variable wind over the interior and
only a weak sea breeze along the coast of 5-10 mph. Temperatures
warm a degree or two each day, with widespread mid to upper 90s
across the interior this weekend with Mon currently looking like the
hottest of all the days. Even the immediate coast will reach the
lower 90s. High humidity will increase peak heat index values up to
108 Fri and 110 Sat-Sun. We are monitoring for the potential for
even higher heat indices Mon-Tue. Regardless, this upcoming heatwave
looks to be the most significant so far this summer with Major to
Extreme HeatRisk across much of EC FL, including the I-4 corridor
and metro Orlando.

Heat Advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not all, of
east central Florida through the weekend and into early next week.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to follow the forecast and
plan to take the proper heat safety actions to prevent heat stress
and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool,
stay hydrated, stay informed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

High pressure builds into early next week keeping favorable boating
conditions. South to southeast winds around 10-15 kts on Friday
become light and variable in vicinity of the surface ridge axis this
weekend. A weak sea breeze is forecast to develop along the coast
each day. Seas build 2-3 ft through Friday, diminishing to 1-2 ft
through Monday. Mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Lingering
showers, mainly across the interior, this evening. This activity
will dissipate or move out of the local area over the next hour or
two. Overnight, light southeast winds will prevail with dry
conditions. Southeast winds will increase to 5-10 KT by mid
morning. Gusty conditions are forecast along the coast, so have
maintained gusts of 18-20KT along the coast starting in the
morning (14-16Z). Overall coverage of showers and storms will be
below normal for this time of year. However, guidance is showing
the greatest potential across the interior in the afternoon. So
have added VCTS for MCO-SFB-ISM-LEE starting at 19-20Z. TEMPOS
have not been added as confidence is not high enough, but may be
added in later TAF packages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  93 /  10  30   0  10
MCO  76  94  75  97 /  20  30  10  20
MLB  78  91  75  92 /  10  20   0  10
VRB  75  92  72  92 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  77  93  77  95 /  30  30  10  20
SFB  77  94  75  96 /  10  30   0  20
ORL  77  94  76  97 /  20  30  10  20
FPR  75  91  72  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson