761 FXUS62 KMFL 021409 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Models keep basically a repeating weather pattern in place for the next couple of days, although the window for the most active period rain-wise seems to be this afternoon. Latest Ensembles and CAMS keep a stationary frontal boundary lingering around central Florida today, with associated cyclogenesis near Jacksonville. Day-1 Weather Prediction Center (WPC) outlook highlights the whole SoFlo Atlantic metro area for potential heavy rain and flash flooding, with a wide window of possible impacts from 8am through 8 pm. Similar to Sunday, both ensemble families and LPMM 6-hr precip products depict another line of broken showers with embedded thunderstorms bringing multiple rounds of heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. The presence of the lingering boundary will again provide enhanced instability and steep-enough lapse rates, which combined with 500 mb temps cooling down to around -11C or -12C will result in increasing favorable conditions for experiencing a few strong to severe storms. An interesting element to follow will be the interaction of the predominantly westerly flow in the morning vs the developing easterly sea breeze along the Atlantic side. If the sea breeze is strong enough, it could result in rounds of rain anchoring over some metro areas, which will require very close monitoring for localized flooding and/or flash flooding potential. Although most of the day will remain cloudy with passing showers, latest HREF/LPMM estimates suggest possible heavy precip rounds as late as 8-9pm and right over the Miami-Dade metro areas, with localized amounts upwards of 5-6 inches. This coincides with WPCs outlook placing most of the eastern half of SoFlo under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall through Tue/12Z, along with a 50% chance of exceedance (50th percentile) of 2-3 inches, and a 10% chance of exceedance (10th percentile) of 3-4 inches for that 24-hour period, including the overnight hours into Tue morning. Models suggest a possible break Tuesday after sunrise as latest model sfc analyses push the aforementioned boundary further north into the FL/GA border while breaking down. However, enough lingering deep moisture should remain in place for another round of heavy showers and potential for localized flooding/flash flooding for the late morning/afternoon hours. A few storms may become strong or severe, with possible large hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Despite the increased cloud cover and shower activity, afternoon temperatures today are expected to again reach 90 over much of the area, then cooling down into the low-mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Latest long range solutions keep abundant deep moisture over SoFlo through the middle of the week, with scattered to numerous showers and storms likely on Wednesday afternoon and evening. For the end of the work week and into the weekend, models depict a gradual decrease in shower storm coverage as weak ridging tries to establish over the west Atlantic, and with its associated ridge axis extending into the northern half of the peninsula. This synoptic setup will bring back generally SE winds through much of the long term with speeds around 10 mph and afternoon periods of higher gusts along the coasts. It will also keep most showers and thunderstorms over inland areas of SoFlo. Model PWATs drop to around 1.5 inches each afternoon, which could still support localized heavy rain. Returning afternoon sea breeze boundaries will again become focal points for deeper convection. However, with warmer 500mb temperatures (-6C to -8C), and a more stable air mass, thunderstorm potential will be more limited. Temperatures will return to near or at normals with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the area. Morning lows will also remain near or at normals. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR likely this afternoon across the East Coast terminals as rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms move through. Made some edits to the previous forecast to account for later start and duration of worst impacts. RA/SHRA could persist overnight but impacts remain uncertain at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A stalled frontal boundary stalls just north of the coastal waters will keep elevated chances for showers and storms through the middle of the work week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the forecast period and 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that develops, which may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 73 82 76 / 90 80 90 80 West Kendall 90 71 83 73 / 90 90 90 80 Opa-Locka 91 73 84 75 / 90 80 90 70 Homestead 89 73 83 75 / 90 90 90 80 Fort Lauderdale 89 72 82 74 / 80 80 90 70 N Ft Lauderdale 89 72 82 74 / 90 80 90 70 Pembroke Pines 92 75 85 77 / 90 80 90 70 West Palm Beach 88 71 83 73 / 80 80 90 70 Boca Raton 91 71 84 73 / 90 80 90 70 Naples 87 72 84 73 / 80 80 90 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...ATV