281
FXUS62 KMFL 180645
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
145 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

  - Isolated to scattered showers will be possible out ahead of an
    approaching cold front today into tonight. An isolated
    thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

  - Warm temperatures will remain in place through the end of the
    week out ahead of the approaching front.

  - A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
    Coast beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Mid level ridging will slowly get pushed further off to the east
today as an approaching mid level shortwave pushes eastward across
the Gulf. This shortwave will rapidly push across the Florida
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic on Friday. At the
surface, a cold front will extend southwestward from the Great
Lakes region down into the Deep South and into the northern Gulf
today. This front will push southeastward into Northern and
Central Florida tonight and it will be moving through South
Florida as Friday progresses. With the mid level shortwave being
quickly shunted off to the northeast, the best mid level dynamics
will remain well off to the north, and the surface front will be
in a weakening state as it approaches and moves through the area.

Out ahead of this front, winds will gradually veer and become
southeasterly today while mid to upper level winds will remain
southwesterly. This will allow for ample moisture advection to take
place throughout the atmospheric column today as PWATs rise across
all of South Florida. By later this afternoon, the latest forecast
model soundings show PWAT values ranging between 1.3 and 1.6 inches
area wide. As moisture advection continues throughout the day, this
will be supportive of a low end chance of showers mainly during
the afternoon hours and then into tonight as the front approaches.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later in the
afternoon, however, chances will remain very limited as the main
source of mid to upper level support remains well north of the
area.

The front will be in a meager state as it moves through the area
on Friday and may actually dissipate as it moves through. The
only noticeable change in sensible weather will be a wind shift
from southwesterly early in the day to west northwest during the
afternoon hours. Lingering moisture will remain present across the
region on Friday and could spark off an isolated shower or two
especially during the morning. Drier air will start to push into
the Lake Okeechobee region in the afternoon as high pressure
builds in from the north, however, a moisture gradient may set up
as the front washes out leaving higher PWAT values (1.2 to 1.5
inches) in place across east coast as well as south of Alligator
Alley. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will generally
rise into the lower 80s across most areas. Highs in the mid 80s
will be possible across the interior especially on Friday with
southwesterly flow ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Moving into the upcoming weekend, a mid level zonal pattern develops
over South Florida as a mid level ridge to the south tries to
expand northward. At the surface, strong high pressure to the
north will rapidly move eastward into the Atlantic heading into
Saturday and Sunday. This area of high pressure looks to be the
main synoptic feature that will affect the sensible weather across
the region during this time frame. Winds will veer and become
east northeast early on Saturday and they will remain this way
through the entire weekend. While high pressure will bring mostly
dry conditions to the area during this time frame, some lower
level moisture advection will be occurring along the east
northeasterly wind flow. This will be just enough moisture for a
slight chance of showers along the breeze mainly over the east
coast, however, any shower that develops will be low topped and
rather short lived. High temperatures over the weekend will
generally rise into the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid
80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into the early portion of next week, the forecast becomes
more uncertain as the latest global and ensemble guidance show a
strengthening ridge developing over the Southern Plains and
expanding eastward across the Gulf. At the surface, guidance is
hinting at the potential of a weak backdoor cold front pushing into
the region during this time frame, however, the latest guidance
suite is having trouble with the timing of this feature. The latest
GFS suite of guidance looks to be a bit slower than the ECMWF
guidance suite. In any event, strong high pressure trying to build
in behind this frontal boundary will increase the pressure gradient
over South Florida leaving breezy east to northeasterly wind flow in
place. With the weak frontal boundary nearby combined with
increasing east northeasterly wind flow, a low end shower chance
will remain in place throughout Monday and Tuesday especially across
the east coast. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will remain
near climatological normals for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Easterly winds overnight will gradually become SE as Thursday
progresses. Scattered showers will remain possible overnight
mainly near KPBI, KFLL, and KFXE. While there may be a lull in
activity at some point on Friday morning, another round of
isolated to scattered showers will be possible across the east
coast this afternoon. SE wind could gust between 20 to 25 kts
across the east coast terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

A moderate southeasterly wind will develop across most of the local
waters today before shifting and becoming south to southwest
tonight as a cold front approaches the region. These winds could
become fresh over portions of the Atlantic waters today and
tonight. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from
3 to 5 feet today before subsiding to 2 feet or less on Friday.
Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through
the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers will develop
over the local waters today and tonight. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out later this afternoon into this evening. Winds
behind the front shift and become west northwest across all local
waters Friday afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue today across the Atlantic
Coast beaches due to persistent onshore flow. This risk will
decrease across the Atlantic Coast beaches on Friday as an offshore
flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  72  85  69 /  20  10  10   0
West Kendall     83  68  86  65 /  10  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        82  71  86  69 /  20  10  10   0
Homestead        82  71  85  68 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  72  84  69 /  20  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  72  84  69 /  20  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   83  71  86  68 /  20  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  82  71  85  69 /  20  20  10  10
Boca Raton       82  71  86  69 /  20  10  10  10
Naples           84  69  81  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC