564
FXUS62 KMLB 162309
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
609 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across portions of
  the waters tonight before becoming more favorable into midweek.
  A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches.

- Isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast will remain
  possible. Otherwise, mostly dry through tomorrow.

- A gradual warm-up forecast through the rest of the week, with
  temperatures becoming above normal by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Showers embedded within marine stratocu
have overperformed slightly so far this afternoon. Therefore, have
added in a slight chance (20%) for showers along the coast. Inland
areas expected to remain mostly dry. However, A stray shower may
occasionally linger into interior areas before diminishing. Dry
air and a strong inversion above 850 mb are expected to continue
to limit the threat for any lightning. Overnight lows are forecast
in the mid to upper 50s inland, while coastal areas remain in the
60s. Patchy fog and/or low clouds will be possible overnight,
mainly over the interior and especially along and north of I-4.
Fog may become locally dense at times near sunrise. Use caution
during the Wednesday morning commute.

High pressure off of the Southeast US coast will maintain a ridge
axis north of east central Florida Wednesday. Onshore flow looks
to continue, becoming increasingly easterly. While dry air aloft
is expected to linger, it appears there will be enough moisture in
the marine stratocu layer to maintain the threat for onshore-
moving showers into Wednesday night. PoPs continue around 20% at
the coast (30-40% offshore), with inland areas still seeing
mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will increase by a few
degrees, reaching the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon. Overnight
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Southerly flow develops Thursday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Higher moisture will advect northward
through the day, with PWATs increasing to near 1.4-1.5" by the
afternoon. Rain chances are forecast to respond accordingly, with
scattered showers (PoPs 3-40%). Poor lapse rates and dry air aloft
will continue to limit the threat for lightning. By Friday, low pressure
moving through southeastern Canada will drag the aforementioned
cold front into east central Florida. Northwesterly winds will
advect in drier air once again, with no mentionable PoPs over land
areas through the daytime hours. High temperatures will rise to
above normal for late week, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Front will shift south of
the area and fade into the weekend, with high pressure building in
behind this boundary and pushing off the southeast U.S. coast.
This will quickly veer winds onshore, with highs remaining mostly
above normal (in the upper 70s to low 80s most locations) through
early next week. May see isolated showers over the waters that can
push onshore through the weekend, but otherwise it looks to
remain mostly dry. The most noticeable change will likely be the
overnight lows, which are forecast to dip into the 50s for much of
the area Friday night into the week. A few locations are expected
to see upper 40s well north of I-4 Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Unfavorable boating conditions will
continue to improve into tonight, as seas subside. Until then,
seas up to 7 ft will remain possible in the Gulf Stream through
this evening. However, seas up to 6 ft are forecast to linger
through the overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
portions of the Gulf Stream waters through 10 PM, though small
craft will need to exercise caution overnight. Onshore flow around
15 kts or less persists through the period. Isolated to scattered
onshore-moving showers will remain possible.

Wednesday-Sunday...Somewhat favorable boating conditions through
the weekend. Onshore flow Wednesday will veer southerly into
Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. The frontal passage
on Friday will bring northerly winds, with look to quickly veer
onshore again into the weekend. Winds generally around 15 kts or
less, though a brief period of 15-20 kt winds are forecast near
the frontal boundary Thursday night into Friday morning. Seas in
the Gulf Stream are expected to respond, building to 6 ft.
Otherwise, seas 3-5 ft through the period. At the very least, it
appears small craft will need to exercise caution offshore
Thursday night into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will
remain possible through Friday over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

TAFs are pretty straightforward with persistent NE to ESE breezes
and predominant VFR conds. Hints of MVFR conditions, especially
near and west of Orlando, late tonight. Signal is highest at LEE
for stratus and/or fog. IFR probabilities are 30% for LEE and 10%
at MCO. Will continue to monitor trends through the night due to
low confidence. A few showers, particularly at the coastal
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  73  61  78 /  20  20  10  30
MCO  57  75  61  80 /  10  10  10  30
MLB  61  76  64  80 /  20  20  20  30
VRB  61  77  64  81 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  53  75  59  78 /  10  10  10  30
SFB  56  75  61  80 /  10  10  10  30
ORL  56  75  61  79 /  10  10  10  30
FPR  61  77  63  81 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil