050
FXUS62 KMLB 260751
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
351 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
- Strong ridge of high pressure will persist into early next week,
keeping rain chances much below normal and increasing
temperatures and heat indices.
- Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into next
week.
- Heat Advisory conditions begin today for portions of east
central Florida and will likely persist for several days. Near
Extreme Heat conditions possible early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Today-Monday...Strong mid-level ridge currently over the SE US
coast will gradually retrograde westward to the lower MS Valley
Mon. Resulting subsidence and compressional warming will promote a
period of much below normal rain chances and dangerous heat
locally. This heat wave looks to be the most significant so far
this summer. High temperatures warm a degree or two each day,
widely ranging the mid to upper 90s across the north interior with
low to mid 90s elsewhere. Monday still looks to be the hottest
day with widespread upper 90s across the interior. Above normal
temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index
values up to 110F across the I-4 urban corridor this weekend,
ranging 105-109F further south. An increase in moisture early next
week will further produce heat index values near 112F north and
west of I-4 on Monday. While the most significant heat impacts
will occur during the afternoon, expect only gradual relief
through the evening with temperatures slow to fall through the
80s, especially near urban centers. Due to prolonged periods of
daily heat, a Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast near and north
of I-4, particularly on Monday. Low temperatures range the mid to
upper 70s across the north with low to mid 70s across the south.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for Osceola/Brevard counties
northward from 11am-7pm today for peak heat indices up to 110 from
I-4 corridor northward and 104-108 for the remainder of Osceola
and Brevard. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for
portions of east central Florida in the coming days with near
Extreme Heat conditions possible. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to follow the forecast and plan to take the proper heat
safety actions to prevent heat stress and know the signs of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay
informed.
Winds light and variable today with sfc high overhead with only
a weak sea breeze along the coast up to 10 mph. Record highs look
out of reach along the coast but near record highs are forecast at
Sanford (97 in 2010) and Orlando (98 in 1936).
Tue-Fri...Shortwave energy dives southward around the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily bisects this ridge
that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination of slightly
decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in moisture should
increase rain/storm chances back to more typical coverage (40-60
percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to the heat but
conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any aftn
rain/storms. Model guidance shows the mid level ridge rebuilding
over the area late week so max temps look to remain well into the
90s with heat indices 105-110.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
High pressure centered over the Florida peninsula today will push
westward into the Gulf by Sunday, maintaining favorable boating
conditions. Variable winds around around 5 knots over the open
Atlc with E-SE winds up to 10 knots behind the sea breeze near the
coast. A weak, reinforcing ridge axis will nose westward across
south Florida early next week and produce a south flow around 10
knots. Seas 1-2 ft through Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
VFR conditions forecast to generally prevail through Saturday into
Saturday night. Drier airmass and ridge aloft will suppress
convective development today, with only isolated showers/storms
forecast northwest of the I-4 corridor from late afternoon into
early evening (chance of rain ~20%). Will therefore continue to
keep any VCSH/VCTS mention out of the TAFs. Winds will overall be
light and variable, with winds picking up out of the east to
around 8-10 knots behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze
from late morning into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 76 94 77 / 10 0 10 0
MCO 97 77 97 77 / 10 0 20 10
MLB 91 76 92 77 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 92 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 0
LEE 95 78 97 79 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 96 77 97 78 / 10 0 20 0
ORL 97 78 97 78 / 10 0 20 10
FPR 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Weitlich