051 FXUS62 KMLB 170024 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 824 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 - Elevated fire weather danger persists today. Steady breezes will surge drier air down the peninsula. - No rain is forecast through the weekend. Next week, there is at least a low chance of a few showers. - A slow warming trend gets underway late this week and through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The east coast sea breeze is pushing through the central portion of the local area this evening. Otherwise, quiet on the KMLB radar. Local observations shows winds are NE around 5-10 mph with mostly clear skies and temperatures are generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Surface high pressure will settle over the SE US tonight as dry air continues to filter down over the local area from the north. Locally, no mentionable rain chances through tonight, with light and variable winds forecast. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s across the interior, and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Tonight...Dry air will continue to filter in from the north as a cold front moves south of the Florida peninsula and an area of surface high pressure settles across the southeastern U.S. Mostly clear skies are anticipated to persist into the overnight hours, with north-northeast winds falling to 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows will be a bit cooler than normal as a result of the passing front, with temperatures falling into the 50s across much of east central Florida. Thursday-Monday...Mid-level ridging will build across the Gulf and extend towards the Florida peninsula into this weekend, shifting towards the Atlantic into Monday. This will further support the area of high pressure at the surface, shifting from the southeastern U.S. Thursday and Friday towards the western Atlantic just off the coast of the Carolinas into the weekend. The high then slides southward, just east of Florida and Georgia, with the ridge axis forecast to remain north of central Florida. Locally, weather conditions are anticipated to remain dry through the remainder of this week and into the start of next week. Rain chances remain virtually near zero through the entire period, with dry air remaining in place. Winds veer from the northeast on Thursday to out of the east, remaining onshore through at least Saturday before becoming more southeasterly on Sunday and Monday. While wind speeds are generally expected to remain between 5 to 10 mph, the development of the east coast sea breeze and its push inland each afternoon will act to enhance wind speeds, especially along the coast. Mostly clear skies forecast through Saturday, with some building cloud coverage possible Sunday into Monday. A warming trend is forecast through the remainder of this week and into early next week as a result of the persistent high located within the vicinity of east central Florida. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday warm to the low 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to persist over the next several days as a result of low minimum RH values, continued drying of fuels, and the potential for near- critical winds. Fire safety precautions should continue to be taken, including avoiding producing sparks or flames, properly discarding cigarettes, and not parking vehicles on dried-out grass. Tuesday-Wednesday...Heading into the middle of next week, the models veer in two very different directions relative to the weather pattern. GFS ensemble guidance hints at the mid-level ridge eroding, allowing for the next potential frontal passage and rain chances across east central Florida. Euro ensembles, on the other hand, keep the ridge in place with any sort of activity remaining well north of the area. Stuck with the NBM for the forecast, which maintains a 20 percent chance of showers across the area, primarily on Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the trends and adjust the forecast as needed. Temperatures remain warm in the low 80s along the coast and in the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Lows in the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 High pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. over the next couple of days and slides eastward out across the Atlantic waters just off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. It will then drift southward towards the Georgia and Florida waters early next week. Locally, this will mean generally favorable boating conditions across the Atlantic waters. Northeast winds veer onshore Thursday through Saturday, becoming southeasterly Sunday through Monday. Wind speeds generally range from 10 to 15 knots through the period, though some brief periods with wind speeds greater than 15 knots cannot be ruled out. Lingering 5 foot seas across the offshore waters diminish tonight, remaining between 2 to 4 feet through the remainder of this week and into early next week. Rain is not forecast over the next several days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. NE winds around 10 KT this evening will become light and variable overnight. Winds then become NE/ENE and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning Thursday. Winds will then once again become light Thursday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are anticipated to persist across east central Florida over the next several days. An area of high pressure will build across the southeastern U.S. and drift eastward out towards the western Atlantic, where it will then slowly drift southwards towards the local Florida waters. This will keep conditions dry locally, with no rain forecast across east central Florida through the weekend and into early next week. The lack of rainfall will allow for continued drying of fuels. There is the potential for the return of rain chances during the middle of next week, but there is too much discrepancy between models at this time to be confident. Critically low RH values are anticipated to continue into Thursday, with values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range across much of the interior and 35 to 50 percent along the coast. RH values improve slightly to 35 to 50 percent on Friday across all of east central Florida, and remain generally in that range through the weekend and into Monday. Onshore winds Thursday through Saturday veer southeasterly Sunday through Tuesday. Wind speeds are anticipated to remain below 15 mph, though local enhancements from the east coast sea breeze each afternoon could cause winds to reach 15 mph and greater. Gusts to 20 mph cannot be ruled out, especially along the coast. Days with greater wind speeds will likely have higher dispersions, which could lead to control concerns for any active or new fires. Proper fire safety precautions are strongly encouraged over the next several days due to the sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 55 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 57 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 61 79 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 60 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 55 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 56 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 59 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 59 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Watson