262
FXUS62 KMFL 252350
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
650 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

No major updates this evening as the forecast is on track and the
previous forecast philosophy still covers expected conditions
well. Will allow the Rip Current Statement to expire shortly with
updated zones to follow. Otherwise, no substantial updates are
anticipated through the evening. Have a Merry Christmas!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Weak high pressure remains draped along the Eastern Seaboard,
promoting light easterly flow across South Florida through the short
term period. With this setup in place, warm and moist surface air
will continue to advect over the region, with PWATs climbing up to
the 1.4-1.6 inch range. Aloft, a weakening mid-level ridge will help
keep a relatively dry air mass over South Florida, as evidenced by
the 12Z sounding and more recent ACARS data from KMIA. As a result,
chances for rain will remain very low through the period, with
mostly very isolated, light showers through evening and later
overnight.

High temperatures today and Thursday will be in the upper 70s, while
low temperatures could range from the mid upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

The late week period will feature a split upper level flow regime,
with a branch of the subtropical jet in place over South Florida.
Concurrently, a ribbon of H500 cyclonic vorticity originating from
the northern Carribean waters will advect towards the southern
peninsula. This may result in a convergent/cyclonic low-level mass
response near the surface that enhance shower and possibly isolated
thunderstorm potential from Friday into Saturday. Relative to the
same time yesterday, models have backed off on the vigor of this
upper level impulse. Consequently, convection appears to be
displaced further eastward (offshore). Scattered showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm or two could develop, however this will be
conditionally dependent on instability and forcing for ascent
through this period as well. For now, it appears that periodic
rainfall may be possible, generally beginning by mid-day Friday into
portions of Saturday, though predominately dry conditions remain in
place. A secondary impulse appears to drift southward over the
region Sunday, which may result in an increase in overall convection
to round off the weekend. However, given the smaller scale nature of
this feature, uncertainty lingers regarding the timing and extent of
impacts.

By the end of the weekend and into the early period of next week,
expect a drying trend to ensue, as a swath of drier air spills in
from the continental US and Gulf of Mexico. This will diminish
rainfall chances through this period, although cannot rule out a few
stray showers - particularly along the east coast.

Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with
maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each
afternoon. A drying trend is likely early next week, though a
meaningful reduction in temperatures is unlikely as of now.
Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the
interior/east coast respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Mainly VFR conditions continue although brief periods of MVFR
could be possible due to low ceilings. Breezy easterly winds will
persist through the evening, becoming light overnight, before
returning on Thursday morning. Intermittent isolated Atlantic
showers will be possible through the period, but impacts to
terminals should remain brief and limited.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

Generally benign boating conditions through the period as light
easterly winds prevail. Seas will remain in the 3-5 feet range in
the Atlantic waters and 2-3 feet or less in the Gulf waters. A few
isolated showers could develop across the local waters today, but
impacts should be minimal.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024

The risk of rip currents will remain high along all Atlantic beaches
through this evening. Conditions will improve on Thursday, but
hazardous rips could return once again on Friday as on-shore flow
strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  80  71  79 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     66  81  68  80 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        68  81  70  80 /  20  20  10  20
Homestead        69  80  71  80 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  78  71  78 /  30  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  70  79  71  78 /  30  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   69  83  71  82 /  30  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  68  79  70  78 /  30  30  10  20
Boca Raton       69  80  71  80 /  30  30  10  20
Naples           64  81  66  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG