661 FXUS62 KMFL 141236 AAB AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 836 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 822 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 High pressure will continue to move eastward today from the Florida Peninsula into the Western Atlantic Waters. This will keep the weather dry over South Florida today with highs in the mid to upper 80s, except lower 80s over the east coast metro areas. The dry air will also allow for the relative humidity to fall into the lower to mid 30s over the interior areas this afternoon while the metro areas will see humidities fall down into the 40s. However, the 20 foot winds will remain below 10 mph today over South Florida. Therefore, NO fire Weather warnings will be needed for South Florida today. Rest of the forecast looks good and no other changes are planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 The present dry air mass and surface high pressure will continue to be the primary influences on the weather today. This setup will bring continued dry conditions with light wind flow across the region. On Tuesday, the surface high will break down as well as shift offshore due to a strengthening trough swinging across the northeast and Mid- Atlantic regions of the country. As the trough advects through these areas, an attendant frontal boundary will push southeastwards although it is looking to be more of a diffuse boundary as it advects southeastward and is likely not going to arrive into South Florida until further in the middle of the week. Therefore, with an abundantly dry air mass in place and the diffuse front continuing to wash out in its progression, dry weather should be maintained across South Florida on Tuesday. High temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected mostly in the mid to upper 80s with only the immediate coastlines experiencing highs in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Little changes in the overall synoptic scenario for the long term period. Global and ensemble model solutions remain in fair agreement in having the region dominated by a sprawling high pressure through much of the period. GEFS MSLP/Normalized anomaly analyses describe a strong 1024-1026 mb high centered over the E CONUS on Wednesday. The Florida peninsula will be on the eastern edge of the circulation of the high, with generally northerly flow across SoFlo. By Thursday, the high will gradually migrate ESE as a trough/low complex expands over the Great Lakes, and pushes the high further SE into the western Atlantic. Winds gradually veer to the NE and E Thursday through Saturday as the sfc ridge flattens a little and brings increasing pressure gradients across the area. This will result in periods of breezy & gusty winds over the Atlantic coast, especially Friday and Saturday. Overall subsidence and a relative dry air mass persisting through the long term will keep rain chances out of the forecast, with single digit POPs each day. In terms of temperatures, the shift in winds from N to E will help in keeping overall temps slightly cooler over the eastern half of SoFlo, with afternoon highs in the low 80s over the Atlantic metro areas, and upper 80s to low 90s over the Gulf coast. By Sunday, the aforementioned high will drift further east and allow for pressure gradients to relax some more while winds veer to the SE. This will bring warmer temperatures for the E half of SoFlo, generally in the mid-upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 The winds will become southeast over the TAF sites today around 10 knots except for KAPF where they will go westerly around 10 knots in the afternoon. Ceiling and Vis will remain in VFR conditions along with dry weather over all of the TAF sites today. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 A light to gentle wind flow will keep calm conditions in place across the local waters through the early week period and likely into mid-week as well. Seas will mostly be at 2 feet or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 67 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 63 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 66 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 80 66 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 66 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 83 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 68 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 83 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 65 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 83 65 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....17 UPDATE/AVIATION...BNB