817 FXUS62 KMFL 130710 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Surface high pressure today sets up over the northeastern Gulf with large scale ridging present across the eastern half of the country. Simultaneously, a broad area of low pressure is expected to strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas and begin advecting southwestward toward the Florida Peninsula. This feature is expected to approach south-central Florida by tonight into Monday and forces the surface high pressure towards the western Gulf. The low will be more directly over the peninsula later on Monday and going into Monday night. PWATs for the short term forecast period are expected on average in the 1.9-2.2" range and as the broad low pressure strengthens and approaches the area, these values will rise to the range of 2.0-2.4", which is above the 90th percentile values. With the surface high in the eastern Gulf and the low pressure area off the coast of the Carolinas, the deep layer flow pattern will be out of a N-NW direction on the east side of the high on Sunday and on the western side of the low on Monday. 500mb temps will still range between -8 to -9C the next two days, suggesting that there is enough unstable air for some stronger storms to form (average 500mb temps at this time of year are typically -6 to -7C). SBCAPE across most of the region is modeled in the 2000-3000 J/kg range as well. This suggests that a few of these storms on Sunday could become near- severe or marginally severe once again. With deep layer N-NW flow, the diurnal sea breezes will still be able to advance inland, causing the strongest convergence over the interior. Therefore, the strongest storms of the day are more likely to form closer to the Lake O region and other interior portions of South Florida. However, the deep layer N-NW steering flow could help initially form storms closer to the east coast metro and/or disperse some of the stronger storms over the interior closer to the coastlines. East coast metro areas will be more likely to see storms in the earlier afternoon to early evening hours and the Gulf coast more likely in the mid to late evening. Monday will largely be a similar setup except the fact that the area of low pressure in the low to mid levels will continue to advect closer to the region. While there is a risk for a couple of marginally severe storms on Sunday and Monday, the primary threat for this setup looks to be periods of steady and heavy rainfall given an overall lack of significant wind flow in the atmospheric column. This could lead to stagnant showers and storms as well as training convection, plus chances for cold pools and associated outflow boundaries to spark additional showers and storms over the same areas. Latest HREF LPMM pinpoints 3-5" or so over the interior sections of South Florida and 2-4" over portions of the east coast metro for Sunday. If these amounts occur in a short duration of time, localized flooding will be possible. With this in mind, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) still maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 4 and a general 5% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG) for excessive rainfall for the eastern half of the CWA. On Monday with the disturbance arriving and PWATs rising above the 90th percentile, WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4 and a general 15% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG) across all of South Florida. High temperatures today are expected in the low to mid 90s and slightly "cooler" on Monday in the mid to upper 80s as increased cloud cover from the disturbance minimizes temperature rises. Overnight lows Sunday night will range from the low 70s near Lake O and central interior to the mid to upper 70s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The area of low pressure advecting into the region early in the week will continue to slowly advect through the Peninsula and into the western Gulf by the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame. Because of the slow-moving nature of this disturbance, excessive rainfall will remain a possibility each day early this week and through the mid-week period. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and a marginal risk on Wednesday, which being several days out highlights a high confidence in the potential for this disturbance to produce impactful rainfall. The exact details will be refined in the next couple of days on rainfall totals, but currently QPF is forecasted at a general 1-2" across the region for Tuesday through Tuesday night and a high-end potential in excess of 2-3". However, localized higher amounts are possible that could lead to flooding concerns. The low pressure is forecast to move slowly west and reach the central Gulf during the second half of next week. In its wake, high pressure should then rebuild from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula. The resultant E/SE wind flow will begin to bring PoPs closer to climatological normals but still a bit on the high side, with a return to a typical east or southeast flow and diurnally driven precipitation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has also forecast a 20% chance of cyclone formation for this disturbance as it moves into the eastern Gulf and further into the western Gulf. Will continue to monitor the latest outlooks from NHC in the coming days on this disturbance. High temperatures each day through Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, which is slightly cooler due to the upcoming abundant cloud cover and widespread rain showers and storms. Temperatures will be rebounding later in the week back into the low 90s for most areas by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions will generally prevail through around 18Z. Winds will be light and variable through much of the forecast period, with a brief uptick in SE winds around 5 kts for east coast terminals Sunday afternoon. However, they still will often be variable despite the slight increase in wind speeds. KAPF will likely experience westerly winds after 16-17Z with the Gulf breeze moving inland. Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible after 18-20Z with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A light to gentle variable wind flow is expected across the local waters for Sunday and Monday, but will be trending southwesterly for the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday as a disturbance approaches. By mid-week, winds are projected to increase out of the south-southeast for the Atlantic. For the Gulf, winds increase out of the northwest to a gentle flow on Monday and veer southerly for the mid-week period. Seas across all of the local waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less for the next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day, which can cause locally higher winds and seas. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Broad low/mid level cyclonic flow around the disturbance, combined with the very high moisture values, will result in periods of rainfall at most times of the day, not just during peak diurnal cycles. The wind flow on Monday will be light due to a northerly in the upper levels and a light southerly flow at the surface. The 500 mb temp will also be around -4 to -5C which is warm for this time of year. This means that there could be nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms on Monday over South Florida which will exceed 1 inch over most of the area, with high-end amounts in excess of 3 inches, in some areas perhaps quite a bit higher. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook is currently showing a slight risk of flooding over South Florida for Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday`s rainfall amounts could be similar, if not even higher in some areas, as the wind flow shifts to S/SE direction allowing for deep tropical moisture to work into the region keeping the very high moisture values in place. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook has put South Florida in a Slight Risk Of Flooding for Tuesday and Marginal Risk of Flooding for Wednesday. At this time, it looks like rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Wednesday. There could even be higher amounts with the storms train or sit over the same area. If these trends continue in later forecast through the weekend, but a Flood Watch may be needed for South Florida for early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 76 87 75 / 80 70 80 60 West Kendall 91 73 87 72 / 80 60 80 50 Opa-Locka 94 76 89 75 / 80 70 90 50 Homestead 90 75 87 74 / 80 70 80 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 75 87 75 / 80 70 90 50 N Ft Lauderdale 92 75 87 75 / 80 70 90 50 Pembroke Pines 95 78 90 77 / 80 70 80 50 West Palm Beach 92 74 87 74 / 80 70 80 40 Boca Raton 93 74 89 74 / 80 70 90 50 Naples 91 77 89 75 / 70 50 90 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman