050
FXUS62 KMFL 141201
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
701 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Surface high pressure extending along the eastern seaboard of the
United States will build in briefly over the region today in the
wake of a cold front. A longwave trough associated with mid-level
low pressure over the central United States will eventually slide
east tonight into early Friday, pushing a decaying surface frontal
boundary across the state on Friday. The lack of much support aloft
for the boundary and the shallow moisture should keep convection
fairly limited with rain chances too low to mention in the forecast.

Drier air in the wake of the front could emerge into the area by
Friday afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon could be a few degrees
cooler, except for inland Southwest Florida where mid to upper 80s
are forecast, compared to previous days. Overnight lowers will range
from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s along the
coast. Some temperature recovery is possible Friday ahead of the
surface front with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast for most
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

By Friday evening, the cold front associated with a mid-level trough
positioned just off the eastern seaboard will be sweeping across
South Florida. This frontal boundary could provide a source of lift
as it advects south. However, the local air mass will be fairly dry
at that point keeping conditions dry as the front moves through so
little to no convection is expected with this frontal passage.

After the front passes by Saturday morning, mid-level ridging will
rebuild over the southeastern CONUS and drier air will settle into
the region. Dew points will fall into the low 60s and even upper 50s
in some spots during this time frame. Thus, dry weather will be in
place over the weekend and into early next week. By the middle of
the week, moisture should begin to increase again as whatever
becomes of PTC 19 (whether that be a developed TC or simply
remnants) is swept eastward with the progression of a strong upper
level low over the central United States. High uncertainty remains
in the eventual evolution of this system, although it seems at least
plausible the moisture envelope from PTC 19 will reach the area
during the mid-week period, so this will be the only time-frame with
mentionable POPs and chances for thunder. Further details will
become clearer by this weekend.

Highs will reach the low to mid 80s each day with overnight lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s. With dewpoints in the 60s through the
weekend, the air mass will feel quite comfortable and
noticeably drier.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Generally VFR conditions with easterly winds that become lighter
through the period before turning out of the NW on Friday as a
front moves through the region. Cannot rule out a stray shower
today, but any impact should be limited.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 657 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Briefly improving marine conditions today as winds lighten with
high pressure building over the region in the wake of a cold
front. A reinforcing cold front late Friday into early Saturday
will again bring hazardous marine conditions to the area.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Persistent easterly to northeasterly wind flow will keep an elevated
risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches for the rest of the
week.

Additionally, another episode of king tides this week will bring
minor to moderate coastal flooding impacts.

* LAKE WORTH PIER HIGH TIDE TIMES...612 AM Thu, 623 PM Thu, 704 AM
  Fri, 713 PM Fri, 755 AM Sat, 803 PM Sat, and 846 AM Sun.

* PORT EVERGLADES HIGH TIDE TIMES...631 AM Thu, 640 PM Thu, 723 AM
  Fri, 730 PM Fri, 814 AM Sat, 821 PM Sat, and 904 AM Sun.

* VIRGINIA KEY HIGH TIDE TIMES...714 AM Thu, 724 PM Thu, 806 AM
  Fri, 814 PM Fri, 857 AM Sat, 904 PM Sat, and 946 AM Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  71  87  67 /  10   0  10  10
West Kendall     84  67  88  64 /  10   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        84  69  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        83  69  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  81  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  82  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   84  70  88  66 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  82  70  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
Boca Raton       83  70  86  68 /  10  10   0  10
Naples           85  71  83  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Culver