757
FXUS62 KJAX 141732
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1232 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track for scattered showers to push into the region
this afternoon and evening ahead of upcoming frontal passage later
tonight. With near record highs into the lower to middle 80s ahead
of this feature, there may be enough instability to kick off a few
isolated thunderstorms with brief gusty winds along this feature
late this afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Otherwise the main impact today will be the Minor to locally
Moderate coastal/tidal flooding taking place with this morning`s
high cycle along the Atlantic Coast that will progress down the
St. Johns River Basin through the afternoon hours. Similar impacts
are expected with tonight`s and Friday`s high tide cycle as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Strong high pressure stretching down the east coast from the
St Lawrence Valley is slowly retreating away as a low pressure
system develops to the west along the Gulf coast into southern AL.
East to southeasterly winds remain elevated along the coast around
10-15 mph to 5-10 mph inland under multi-layer cloud cover. Our
temperatures range in the 60s across inland NE FL and SE GA with
low 70s along the coast and the St Johns river and should remain
so through sunrise.

A strong, negatively tilted mid/upper level trough over the TN
and OH valleys will move east to the Mid Atlantic states by this
evening and cause the surface low to track eastward across central
GA towards the GA/SC coast later this afternoon. Winds will turn
southerly today ahead of a cold front extending from the low that
will move into the area by early evening to 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph. We should see more partly cloudy skies over NE FL this
afternoon with more clouds over SE GA closer to the low and highs
will reach the low 80s as a result for places south of Waycross
into NE FL with upper 70s north of Waycross. This evening, a
broken band of heavier showers will move east to southeast across
our area with skies turning cloudy after sunset. While the
probability is low, isolated T`storms could form along the Gulf
coast to near I-75 as dewpoints rise briefly into the upper 60s
in this locations, but otherwise there does not appear to be
enough instability for T`storms over most of our area. A wetting
rainfall (0.25 inches) is possible from the showers, but most
locations will see amounts under a tenth of an inch in total.

Showers will end after midnight except for places south and east
of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Behind the front, high
pressure will begin to build in from the northwest and winds will
stay elevated 8-12 mph overnight inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast. The cool air advection arriving will allow low temperatures
to cool into the low/mid 50s over SE GA and the Suwannee Valley,
but remain in the upper 50s for rest of NE FL west of the St Johns
river with low 60s over the NE FL coast and the St Johns river
basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Behind the cold front, drier and cooler conditions expected
Friday to Friday night with cool advection on northerly flow near
15G25 mph along the coast but about 10G20mph inland. The sfc high
originally over AR will move to the Great Lakes by Sat morning.
Low level winds will slowly veer during the period. Some partly
cloudy skies briefly around Friday, but skies should be clear by
the aftn with the dry airmass. Max temps from upper 60s to lower
to mid 70s anticipated Friday with lows dropping into the upper
40s to lower to mid 50s Friday night.

Saturday, the high pressure over the Great Lakes expected to migrate
southeastward with a mid level ridge expected to sit over the northeast
GOMEX. This will continue to ensure dry and stable conditions and
mostly clear skies, with some exception for a few stratocu clouds
advancing onshore for northeast FL. Low level wind will continue
to veer to more easterly by late Sat night. Lighter winds, clear
skies and a moderating northeast-east flow will ensure some warmer
max temps Saturday to mostly in the lower to mid 70s. Light winds
and clear skies Sat night should bring temps down into the upper
40s north zones to lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Deep layer ridge will be over the region Sunday with quiet weather
conditions continuing. Meanwhile, a significant mid/upper level
trough will move through Baja CA and nrn Mexico and shift
northeastward. Max temps will continue to moderate with highs in
the 70s to near 80 under mostly clear skies and light winds with
the sfc high over the region. Monday, we will see the trough lift
northeast into the central U.S. while another shortwave moves
through the Rockies. This should cause the deep layer ridging to
shift eastward into the western Atlantic causing a gradual warm-up
for the area Monday and Tuesday. In fact, record highs are once
again possible Tuesday with most of the area seeing at least 80
degrees, with climate section below noting records on Tuesday.
With the mid to upper level troughing advancing eastward, a
surface cold frontal boundary will move into the southeast states
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Model guidance continues to indicate tropical moisture and disturbance
moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. This moisture
and disturbance would likely track northeast ahead of the cold front
given deep layer troughing located over the central U.S into Mexico.
It`s still far too early to determine impacts, if any, given that
the system remains a poorly defined disturbance at this time in
the west Caribbean. At this time, moisture is forecast to increase
Tue into Wed so we have chance showers in the forecast.

Continue to stay up to date with the latest forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- the Atlantic Tropical Season continues through the rest of
November!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conds with scattered diurnal Cu clouds at low levels and a mid
level Alto-Cu deck pushing across around 10Kft, otherwise a breezy
south wind at 10-12 knots the remainder of the afternoon. Rain
chances increase tonight with narrow band of scattered showers
pushing through the region from 03-08Z at SSI, 04-09Z at JAX/CRG
and VQQ/GNV, and 05-10Z at SGJ. Models in agreement with MVFR CIGS
and with TEMPO IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS with the frontal passage, the
improving conds after sunrise (12Z) Friday morning becoming VFR at
all locations by 13-14Z time frame. Gusty NW winds 10-12G15-18
knots with the frontal passage, then becoming North and remaining
in the 10-13G15-20 knot range and gusty through the late morning
hours with SKC at all TAF sites by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

High pressure will retreat to the north northeast today as a low
pressure system to the west moves just north of the waters through
tonight. A cold front will move through the waters tonight as the
low moves off to the northeast. Southerly winds today will turn
westerly tonight and then north to northwesterly Friday morning.
There will be a lull in small craft advisory conditions after this
afternoon as winds and seas decrease to exercise caution levels
ahead of the low today, then increase again on Friday morning as
high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will remain to
the north Saturday with north northeasterly winds and elevated
seas persisting, then settle over the waters Sunday into Monday
with light winds and dry conditions.

Rip Currents: A high risk of Rip currents is in effect for all area
beaches today through Friday evening due to surf heights 4-5 ft
lingering through this afternoon, then north to northeast onshore
winds increasing Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Minor coastal flooding issues are ongoing with the onshore flow
pattern and the higher astronomical tides associated the approach
of full moon on 11/15. Going back to Wed, water levels reached
about 1.6 to near near 2 ft. Noting guidance has been slightly
too high along the coast and too low for the St Johns River,
though error on the order of just a few tenths of a foot.

The water levels for this morning`s high tide expected to be about
2 ft MHHW along the coast, and about 1.6 to 1.9 ft in the St Johns
River Basin. Given good confidence, we have the advisory extended
into Friday through Saturday aftn, with the high tide expected
Saturday morning near the coast and within the St Johns River in
the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Record High Temperatures Today, November 14th:

KJAX: 84/2008
KCRG: 84/2008
KAMG: 85/1993
KGNV: 86/1955

Record High Temperatures for Tuesday, November 19th:

KJAX: 84/1958
KCRG: 82/1984
KAMG: 82/1942
KGNV: 90/1906

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  51  69  45 /  50  50   0   0
SSI  79  56  71  54 /  30  40   0   0
JAX  82  56  72  51 /  20  40   0   0
SGJ  83  60  71  59 /  20  40   0   0
GNV  84  57  72  49 /  20  40   0   0
OCF  85  60  75  50 /  20  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for FLZ033-038-
     124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$