610
FXUS62 KJAX 271744
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
144 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Temperatures are working through the 90s as of 1 PM with highs
potentially reaching triple-digits in some areas by the mid
afternoon. Dangerous levels of heat are expected with heat index
values up to 112F. Temperatures will be cooler at the coast due to
the sea breeze but due the associated humidity spike, not much
relief will be felt. Inland temps will peak around 4-5 PM and then
slowly cool from there, reaching the mid 70s overnight under
mostly clear skies.

Due to the strong influence of ridging aloft, convective
development will be very limited in coverage, if any development
occurs at all. The focus for any development would be interactions
between the Atlc sea breeze and the mesoscale boundaries
(river/lake breezes) which is most likely to occur across north-
central FL; however, as mentioned, only isolated chances are
expected (PoP < 20%).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Monday and Tuesday will be very hot, with high temperatures
reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s inland, and mid 90s along the
east coast. Apparent temperatures will reach dangerous values,
maxing out near 108-113 degrees both days. For Monday, a Heat
Advisory is now in effect for all of northeast Florida and for
inland southeast Georgia, there max heat indices of 108-112 are
expected. For the immediate southeast Georgia coast, there is an
Extreme Heat Warning, where apparent temperatures may reach at or
just above 113.

Precipitation chances remain fairly low on Monday, with about a
20-30% chance of showers and storms across inland areas in the
afternoon as high pressure slowly drifts away. By Tuesday, rain
chances bounce back up to 50-70% inland and 30-50% near the coast
as moisture increases ahead of an upper level disturbance.
Convection will being to simmer down after sunset Tuesday, with a
few lingering storms likely through midnight. With weak southerly
flow and enhanced moisture, heavy downpours and localized flooding
will be a concern. Despite increased rainfall potential Tuesday,
high temperatures will still be well above average. Max apparent
temperatures are forecast to reach at least Heat Advisory
criteria, but not enough confidence to issue an Extreme Heat Watch
with this package given precipitation potential and borderline 113
degree heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Weak ridging will allow for above average temperatures to
continue, with daily rain and storm chances sitting at about
40-50% area-wide through Friday. Heat indices at this time are
expected to just near Heat Advisory criteria (105-110 degrees) so
headlines will continue to be evaluated for each day. By Saturday,
precipitation chances will increase ahead of an approaching front
from the north, lowering temperatures a bit to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)

Westward moving high pressure and weak troughing to the northeast
has lead to northerly flow at airfields north of I-10 and
northeasterly to the south. These trends will be dominant until the
Atlc sea breeze reaches the coastal terminals during th mid to late
afternoon hours, turning winds easterly at similar speeds (at or
below 10 knots). Little chance for thunderstorm impacts at any of
the TAF terminals but the best chance (<10%) will be at KGNV between
21z-00z. That said, dry and VFR conditions are expected.

Light to calm winds return overnight and then become predominantly
northerly during the morning hours Monday before the afternoon Atlc
sea breeze/TSRA development.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure continues to shift west of our local waters with
weak troughing sharpening to the north through Tuesday. There will
be increasing chances for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday and
continuing through the rest of the week as troughing shifts to the
west of our local waters and Atlantic high pressure builds
westward towards the Florida peninsula. Thunderstorm coverage will
likely increase by Friday and next weekend as a frontal boundary
pushes towards our local waters from the north. Seas of 2 to 3
feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next
several days.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours
will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to keep a
lower end moderate rip current risk in place at area beaches
through at least Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites...

                     SUN 7/27   MON 7/28   TUE 7/29

Jacksonville, FL     100/1872   104/1872   100/1875
Gainesville, FL      101/1893   97/2010    99/1896
Craig Airport, FL    99/2010    98/2016    101/2016
Alma, GA (AMG)       99/2014    100/2006   99/2016

Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites...

                     SUN 7/27   MON 7/28   TUE 7/29

Jacksonville, FL     85/1872    80/1885    80/1877
Gainesville, FL      77/2010    77/2014    77/1899
Craig Airport, FL    80/2010    80/2014    79/2017
Alma, GA (AMG)       77/2018    78/2014    77/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  77 101  76 /   0   0  20  20
SSI  96  82  96  81 /   0   0  10  10
JAX 100  78 100  78 /  10   0  20  10
SGJ  95  78  96  79 /  10   0  10  10
GNV 100  77 100  77 /  10   0  20  10
OCF  98  77  99  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-
     236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$