848
FXUS62 KJAX 172300
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
600 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early Thursday Morning. Local
Visibilities of Less than  Mile Possible

- Isolated Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening

- Light Freeze and Widespread Frost Possible for Inland

- Southeast GA Late Friday Night and Early Saturday Morning. Frost
Possible for the Suwannee Valley and Interstate 10 Corridor

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 50s and near
60 within the St Johns river basin, with heavy cloud cover and
showers over the local waters. A few isolated light showers may
make it onshore near the immediate coast overnight, near
northeast Florida around midnight and closer to southeast
Georgia towards early morning. Patchy fog is likely to develop
nearly area-wide tonight, but inland northeast Florida has the
highest chances for localized dense fog in the early morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A complex but disorganized frontal system starts to take shape
throughout the day on Thursday, which will start with a
developing psuedo warm front lifting north of the area by
Thursday Evening. The cold front lags behind only slightly,
crossing our region from northwest to southeast around late
Thursday Night and through the first half of Friday. Showers
begin over the Atlantic waters early Thursday before filling in
gradually throughout the day as moisture increases off the Gulf
with a south to southwesterly breeze. Both the highest PoPs and
QPF is expected to be over interior GA before much of the
synoptic scale elements and therefore frontal boundary and rain
chances gradually decrease as the front moves across the area
Thursday Night. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
especially late in the evening and into the early Morning hours
Friday as we get a slight uptick in instability. However, strong
to severe t`storms are not expected at this time. Temps will
run a bit above normal overall in the warm sector, though
increasing clouds the further north you go will generally help
to strengthen this gradient. Temps will range from the upper 60s
to low 70s north, mid 70s surrounding I-10, and upper 70s to
near 80 south.

Lingering isolated to widely scattered showers/t`storms will tend to
come to a gradual end towards morning on Friday with the loss of any
daytime heating and more favorable upper level dynamics. Since the
front lags behind and a sufficient amount of moisture will remain
across much of the area Thursday Night, some patchy fog will be
possible, especially closer to the I-75 corridor. However, main
limiting factor will be if southwesterly breezes remain strong
enough overnight for this fog potential to become more of a low
cloud potential. Thursday Night will be generally mild with mostly
cloudy skies and temps ranging from the mid to upper 50s over
southeast GA to the low to mid 60s over northeast FL.

Cooler and drier conditions expected Friday as the flow turns more
northwesterly, though certainly not as a cold as the previous arctic
airmass from earlier this week. Cooler air also does not make as
much of a push south and east, with high temps topping out generally
near normal and only around 5 degrees or so lower than Thursday.
Generally looking at 60s over southeast GA and the Upper Suwannee
Valley, and low to mid 70s elsewhere with a few readings in the
upper 70s possible over areas like Marion/Putnam/Flagler Counties.
These readings will also depend on how quickly cloud cover clears
out throughout the day, which could lead to less of a temperature
gradient. Friday Night will be clear to partly cloudy with lows
ranging from the low to mid 30s over interior GA to the 40s the
closer you get to the St. Johns River Valley and Coast. Patchy frost
will be likely over interior GA where the lightest winds are
expected, as well as isolated temperatures near or just below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rather weak surface high pressure ridging will continue to settle
over the region on Saturday and remain in place through Sunday as
well as the flow aloft will be mainly zonal. The high will be mainly
north of the area Saturday before sliding eastward into the Atlantic
Sunday and breaking down ahead of the next frontal boundary that
will move through sometime around Sunday Night and Monday. This
looks to be another dry front at this time, with high pressure
building quickly building in from the north again Monday before once
again sliding off to the east Tuesday and into mid week. The pattern
looks overall dry moving towards the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
holidays, with temperatures overall close to or slightly above
normal during the majority of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Fog and stratus are expected to develop overnight, which will yield
restrictions at most area TAF sites. Conditions will improve to VFR
Thursday morning. Showers will move into the area early in the
afternoon, with chances continuing through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure situated along the southeastern seaboard will shift
offshore today, allowing coastal troughing over the northeast
Florida waters to lift northward tonight. This feature will develop
scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over our local
waters later this afternoon and tonight, mainly for the offshore
waters. A warm front will then develop over southeast Georgia late
tonight and Thursday, bringing increasing chances for showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms to our local waters through Thursday
night. Southwesterly winds will strengthen to Caution levels for the
offshore waters ahead of this storm system`s approaching cold front
on Thursday night, with winds shifting to northwesterly while
gradually diminishing in the wake of the frontal passage on Friday.
Weakening high pressure will then settle over our local waters
during the weekend. A weakening frontal boundary will then approach
our region from the north on Monday as strong high pressure builds
over the Mid- Atlantic states, with this feature potentially wedging
down the southeastern seaboard on Monday night and Tuesday as
another coastal trough develops over our local waters.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY & THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA,
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND THE COAST...



Dry weather will continue along with widespread low dispersions will
continue through this evening thanks to plenty of cloud cover and
light low level winds. This will continue through Thursday as well
for most of the area as periods of showers will be expected ahead of
an approaching cold front. Parts of the lower Suwannee Valley and
Ocala National Forest will see the highest transport winds and
dispersions where the lowest rain chances/cloud cover is expected.
Slightly cooler and dry air mass will once again build into the
regioin Thursday Night and Friday as the cold front pushes through,
with a breezy northwesterly flow and better mixing. Expected to
remain dry through the weekend, with low level flow weakening once
again as high pressure weakens overhead.


FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of locally dense
fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours Thursday
Morning for inland portions of northeast and north central Florida.
A light freeze and widespread frost will be possible across inland
portions of southeast Georgia during the predawn and early morning
hours on Saturday, with patchy frost potentially extending into the
Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  69  55  63 /  10  70  80  10
SSI  55  69  59  68 /  30  70  70  10
JAX  54  75  59  72 /  20  50  50  10
SGJ  58  76  62  74 /  20  50  50  10
GNV  56  78  62  75 /  10  30  50   0
OCF  57  79  62  76 /  10  30  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$