610 FXUS62 KJAX 271744 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 144 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)... Temperatures are working through the 90s as of 1 PM with highs potentially reaching triple-digits in some areas by the mid afternoon. Dangerous levels of heat are expected with heat index values up to 112F. Temperatures will be cooler at the coast due to the sea breeze but due the associated humidity spike, not much relief will be felt. Inland temps will peak around 4-5 PM and then slowly cool from there, reaching the mid 70s overnight under mostly clear skies. Due to the strong influence of ridging aloft, convective development will be very limited in coverage, if any development occurs at all. The focus for any development would be interactions between the Atlc sea breeze and the mesoscale boundaries (river/lake breezes) which is most likely to occur across north- central FL; however, as mentioned, only isolated chances are expected (PoP < 20%). && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Monday and Tuesday will be very hot, with high temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s inland, and mid 90s along the east coast. Apparent temperatures will reach dangerous values, maxing out near 108-113 degrees both days. For Monday, a Heat Advisory is now in effect for all of northeast Florida and for inland southeast Georgia, there max heat indices of 108-112 are expected. For the immediate southeast Georgia coast, there is an Extreme Heat Warning, where apparent temperatures may reach at or just above 113. Precipitation chances remain fairly low on Monday, with about a 20-30% chance of showers and storms across inland areas in the afternoon as high pressure slowly drifts away. By Tuesday, rain chances bounce back up to 50-70% inland and 30-50% near the coast as moisture increases ahead of an upper level disturbance. Convection will being to simmer down after sunset Tuesday, with a few lingering storms likely through midnight. With weak southerly flow and enhanced moisture, heavy downpours and localized flooding will be a concern. Despite increased rainfall potential Tuesday, high temperatures will still be well above average. Max apparent temperatures are forecast to reach at least Heat Advisory criteria, but not enough confidence to issue an Extreme Heat Watch with this package given precipitation potential and borderline 113 degree heat indices. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Weak ridging will allow for above average temperatures to continue, with daily rain and storm chances sitting at about 40-50% area-wide through Friday. Heat indices at this time are expected to just near Heat Advisory criteria (105-110 degrees) so headlines will continue to be evaluated for each day. By Saturday, precipitation chances will increase ahead of an approaching front from the north, lowering temperatures a bit to near normal. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Westward moving high pressure and weak troughing to the northeast has lead to northerly flow at airfields north of I-10 and northeasterly to the south. These trends will be dominant until the Atlc sea breeze reaches the coastal terminals during th mid to late afternoon hours, turning winds easterly at similar speeds (at or below 10 knots). Little chance for thunderstorm impacts at any of the TAF terminals but the best chance (<10%) will be at KGNV between 21z-00z. That said, dry and VFR conditions are expected. Light to calm winds return overnight and then become predominantly northerly during the morning hours Monday before the afternoon Atlc sea breeze/TSRA development. && .MARINE... High pressure continues to shift west of our local waters with weak troughing sharpening to the north through Tuesday. There will be increasing chances for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the week as troughing shifts to the west of our local waters and Atlantic high pressure builds westward towards the Florida peninsula. Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase by Friday and next weekend as a frontal boundary pushes towards our local waters from the north. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to keep a lower end moderate rip current risk in place at area beaches through at least Monday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures at our local climate sites... SUN 7/27 MON 7/28 TUE 7/29 Jacksonville, FL 100/1872 104/1872 100/1875 Gainesville, FL 101/1893 97/2010 99/1896 Craig Airport, FL 99/2010 98/2016 101/2016 Alma, GA (AMG) 99/2014 100/2006 99/2016 Daily Record High Minimum Temps at our local climate sites... SUN 7/27 MON 7/28 TUE 7/29 Jacksonville, FL 85/1872 80/1885 80/1877 Gainesville, FL 77/2010 77/2014 77/1899 Craig Airport, FL 80/2010 80/2014 79/2017 Alma, GA (AMG) 77/2018 78/2014 77/2017 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 100 77 101 76 / 0 0 20 20 SSI 96 82 96 81 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 100 78 100 78 / 10 0 20 10 SGJ 95 78 96 79 / 10 0 10 10 GNV 100 77 100 77 / 10 0 20 10 OCF 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030- 031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236- 237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233- 236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$