455 FXUS62 KJAX 101734 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 134 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Less amplified trough resides north of region over northern GA and South Carolina as the Bermuda High remains to our west. As a result, deep layer southwesterly flow continues to support a transportation of moisture into SE GA and NE FL. PWATs this morning was 1.97 inches per 12Z JAX sounding, just exceeding the 75th percentile for this time of year. Limited convection this early afternoon over the I-75 corridor, where showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered to numerous in coverage by the late afternoon/evening as it advects eastward, particularly north of I-10 into SE GA. The aforementioned convective activity will expand toward the east into the late afternoon and early evening where the sea breeze merger is expected near and east of the St. Johns River basin. Across SE GA, rain chances increase late afternoon into the evening with the approach of a weak vort lobe and south of a lingering frontal boundary. Focused the higher rain chances across inland SE GA mid afternoon into the early evening (near 60%) where deeper moisture (PWATS about 2.1 inches) will coincide south of a passing short wave, with lower rain chances south of I-10 where 30-50% rain chances are progged across NE FL this afternoon as "drier" air limits rainfall coverage compared to yesterday. WSW steering flow about 8 to 10 knots will mean that storms will move less slower than yesterday, thus the flooding risk today is lower where nuisance and localized flooding/ponding of low lying and urban areas can occur with stronger and slower moving storms with a marginal risk of excessive rain for SE GA. Convection slowly wanes through the evening and decreases through midnight, with an encroachment of Gulf Coast showers toward the southern Suwannee Valley toward daybreak Friday morning. Muggy overnight lows will range in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Southwesterly winds will help bring the Gulf coast sea-breeze well inland Friday allowing for rain to start popping up along and west of I-75 in the late morning/early afternoon hours. Coverage and intensity will increase into the afternoon as temperatures increase and the Gulf sea-breeze continues to push further inland with higher chances staying west of I-95 and east of I-75. Daytime high temperatures will get into the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking around 100-105 degrees. Showers and storms linger after sunset over southeast Georgia, and will slowly dissipate into the late evening. Overnight temperatures will cool over inland locations into the low to mid 70s with temperatures staying slightly warmer along the coast. Saturday, PWAT values drop below 2" bringing afternoon Pop chances below 40% over most of the area. Winds continue out of the southwest, carrying the Gulf sea-breeze well inland, creating scattered showers and isolated storms as it pushes across. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range once again. Temperatures cool overnight, dipping into the low to mid 70s inland and staying slightly warmer along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Weak steering flow and the return of PWAT values above 2" Sunday will create slow moving and heavy rain producing storms concentrated south of I-10 in the late afternoon to evening hours. This will increase the chances for localized flooding, especially in urban and poorly draining areas. Next week, diurnal heating and sea-breeze convergence will create daily rain and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures will be toasty Sunday and Monday with temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 100 to 105 over most of the area. Winds shift towards mid-week, bringing cooler air through the end of the period. This will bring daytime highs back down to the seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The Atlantic sea breeze will slowly shift inland with coastal TAF sites shifting winds to SSE 18-20z. Less showers and storms compared to yesterday with the best chances over SSI and the JAX metro sites. Have TEMPO groups to cover potential thunderstorms. Showers and storms will slowly diminish between 23z and 02z, with VFR conditions during most of the nocturnal hours and morning daylight hours Friday with perhaps some light misty fog at VQQ between 09z and 12z reducing sfc vsbys to 4sm. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 High pressure extending across central Florida and a surface trough across Georgia will bring prevailing southwest winds, shifting onshore each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for both SE GA and NE FL beaches this afternoon. Moderate risk expected for FL beaches Friday and Low headlined for SE GA beaches at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Winds increase slightly over the next couple of days, improving daytime dispersion to fair to generally good over northeast Florida and generally good to very good over southeast Georgia for the next few days. Marginal risk for severe storms today in the late afternoon, focused mainly over southeast Georgia, with storms capable of producing frequent lightning, localized flooding rainfall and wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Friday and through the weekend, general afternoon rain and thunderstorms expected with the highest chances west of I-95 with the dominating Gulf sea- breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 94 73 95 / 30 60 30 30 SSI 77 92 78 92 / 40 50 20 20 JAX 75 96 75 97 / 30 60 20 30 SGJ 75 94 75 94 / 20 40 10 30 GNV 74 96 73 96 / 10 50 10 30 OCF 74 94 73 94 / 10 50 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$