541 FXUS62 KMLB 102351 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 751 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Coverage of showers and storms gradually returning to more typical summertime pattern this week - With slightly lower rain chances this week, temperatures approach the low to mid 90s with heat index values 102 to 107+ degrees && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Now-Tonight...Quick-hitting showers and occasional storms are beginning to develop this afternoon over east central Florida. This activity will continue to move from south to north while gradually becoming more favored west of Interstate 95, as westward-moving outflow and the sea breeze slowly track inland. GOES-derived PW are well over 2" areawide, so even though activity is moving today, a quick 1-3" of rain accumulation (where repeated bands of rain occur) remains possible. Earlier CAM guidance indicated a low probability of 3-4" totals but has more recently backed off of that idea in recent model runs. Brief wind gusts of 40-45 mph may also accompany the most organized activity. Drier weather is forecast to resume after 10-11 PM as daytime heating is lost and mid level energy departs to the north and west of the area. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, just in time for increasing cloud cover. By incorporating a consensus blend of the short-term models, high temperatures were nudged down a degree or so in spots. For a number of locations, especially those that experience rain, 1-2 PM temps likely represent today`s high. Lows retreat into the 70s overnight as comparatively drier air arrives. Slightly less muggy conditions may be noticed heading into early Monday morning as a result. Monday-Tuesday...Southeasterly surface flow is forecast to continue for the first part of the new week with afternoon gusts around 20 mph at the coast. The pressure gradient weakens further on Tuesday, keeping wind speeds around 10 mph or less inland (10-15 mph at the coast). Temperatures overall will be on an upward trend this week as more typical afternoon storm chances resume. In the absence of deeper moisture and return of drier mid/upper levels, coverage of afternoon and evening showers/storms is more consistent with the 40- 60% range (highest chances inland). 500mb temps around -5C are likely to inhibit more robust convection, but steep low-level lapse rates and some dry air entrainment may lead to some gustier storms, alongside frequent lightning strikes. Daytime highs move closer to the NBM 50th-75th percentile, especially on Tuesday, reaching the low 90s Monday with more interior locations pushing the mid 90s on Tuesday. NBM dew points remain above most statistical guidance so this forecast leans closer to deterministic consensus. As a result, maximum heat indices range from 101 to 105 degrees Monday and increase to 102 to 107 degrees by Tuesday. Wednesday-Saturday (previous)...The general weak pressure pattern continues across the region with light, mostly onshore flow, which could veer offshore each overnight and early morning. Fairly deep moisture continues with PWATs 1.80-2.00 inches, possibly increasing again well in excess of 2 inches areawide by Fri/Sat. Aloft, mid- level ridging centers across the peninsula on Wed, further retrograding into the ERN Gulf Wed night/Thu, then focusing towards the N/NW Gulf late in the period. Mid-level temps a bit warmer at -4.5C to -5.5C on average into late week. Generally keep 40-50pct on Wed, then 50-60pct Thu-Sat, but there could be some argument for slightly lower PoPs these days. Max temps forecast continue in the L-M90s each day, with peak heat indices generally 102-107F, though could have some isolated higher values which we will have to monitor. Still warm/humid at night with lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Southeast winds 10-15 kt thru Monday slacken from Tuesday onward to around 10 kt or less. Seas generally remain 2-3 ft but occasionally reach 4 ft offshore as a small, persistent long period swell continues thru at least Tuesday. Rain chances return closer to normal this week, with the highest coverage forecast well inland. Any storms that do occur over the local waters will be capable of heavy downpours, lightning strikes, and occasionally gusty winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Lingering -RA through 02Z-03Z at DAB/SFB/MCO but VFR conds forecast through the night with light S-SE breeze. These S-SE winds increase after 13Z, becoming gusty (18-22 knots) in the afternoon at coastal terminals. Lower coverage of showers/storms is forecast Mon south of MLB but near 60% probs for interior terminals. So have VCTS aft 19Z at MCO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 77 91 / 40 50 20 50 MCO 75 92 76 94 / 40 60 20 70 MLB 77 90 78 91 / 50 50 20 50 VRB 76 91 77 92 / 50 50 20 50 LEE 76 92 77 93 / 40 70 20 60 SFB 75 92 77 93 / 40 60 20 60 ORL 75 93 77 94 / 40 60 20 60 FPR 74 91 75 92 / 50 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Kelly