710 FXUS62 KTBW 091752 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 152 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Ridging will remain overhead through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. This will result in a very weak flow aloft which will delay thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon and evening hours. These thunderstorms will form inland before slowly drifting towards the coast. The main concern with this regime will be localized flooding as any storms that do form will be slow moving. As we look into early next week the ridge will shift slightly north as a trough starts to head towards the state. This will bring us a more easterly flow regime as the trough brings additional moisture. PW currently are forecast to stay above 2.0 both Monday and Tuesday. This will allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorms chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Neutral flow today will result in much of our thunderstorm activity happening inland and in southwest Florida. Small chance for storms will still be around for PIE and SRQ but to low to add into TAFs. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Ridging will be overhead through the weekend. This will result in very light flow aloft and winds saying around 5 knots through the period. Best chance to see storms will be in late evening hours as storms push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 40 10 FMY 95 77 93 77 / 50 30 60 20 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 60 30 60 10 SRQ 93 77 91 76 / 30 20 30 10 BKV 92 73 93 72 / 50 20 40 10 SPG 90 80 91 78 / 30 20 30 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce