710
FXUS62 KTBW 091752
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
152 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Ridging will remain overhead through the rest of the work week and
into the weekend. This will result in a very weak flow aloft which
will delay thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon and
evening hours. These thunderstorms will form inland before slowly
drifting towards the coast. The main concern with this regime will
be localized flooding as any storms that do form will be slow
moving.

As we look into early next week the ridge will shift slightly north
as a trough starts to head towards the state. This will bring us
a more easterly flow regime as the trough brings additional
moisture. PW currently are forecast to stay above 2.0 both Monday
and Tuesday. This will allow for more widespread shower and
thunderstorms chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Neutral flow today will result in much of our thunderstorm
activity happening inland and in southwest Florida. Small chance
for storms will still be around for PIE and SRQ but to low to add
into TAFs. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Ridging will be overhead through the weekend. This will
result in very light flow aloft and winds saying around 5 knots
through the period. Best chance to see storms will be in late
evening hours as storms push off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  92  79 /  40  20  40  10
FMY  95  77  93  77 /  50  30  60  20
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  60  30  60  10
SRQ  93  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  10
BKV  92  73  93  72 /  50  20  40  10
SPG  90  80  91  78 /  30  20  30  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce