215 FXUS62 KMFL 270508 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 108 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Surface high pressure over the northern Gulf and upper level high pressure over the SE US today will continue to gradually shift to the west today and Monday. This will continue to keep plenty of dry air across the region with PWAT values running well below normal. The 00Z MFL sounding showed a PWAT value of only 1.14 inches. Forecast soundings show gradual improvement to around 1.3-1.4 inches today and then 1.5-1.7 inches on Monday. Today will be the last day of Saharan dust influence before conditions begin to improve starting on Monday. Expecting mainly dry conditions today with just a slight chance of some late day showers or storms over SW FL along the Gulf coast sea-breeze. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s across the east coast metro, and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Despite the well above normal temps, lower than normal dewpoints in the low 70s this afternoon will prevent heat indices from reaching advisory criteria for the necessary duration. As low level moisture starts to increase overnight, some coastal showers will be possible towards Monday morning, otherwise dry conditions expected for inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the lower 70s over inland South FL to upper 70s closer to the coast. We`ll start to see a return to a more summer-like pattern on Monday as moisture continues to slowly increase. While PWAT values will remain below normal at least through the first part of the day, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea- breezes during the afternoon into early evening. High temps will remain hot with lower 90s over the east coast metro and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL. With dewpoints starting to creep up into the mid and upper 70s, max heat indices of 105-110 are expected. Will need to monitor closely over the next day to see if headlines will be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 A weak mid level trough and upper level TUTT will move across the Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will have a peripheral impact on South FL, mainly continuing to increase PWAT values to near or slightly above climatological norms. These features will move off to the west and then upper level high pressure builds into the western Atlantic for the end of the upcoming week and into the beginning of next weekend reinforcing the low level E/SE flow and keeping moisture levels at or slightly above normal. Convection each day will primarily follow a typical summertime pattern, with PoPs increasing during the afternoon and early evening hours along the sea-breezes and favoring inland and SW FL, and coastal showers possible during the overnight hours each day. Temperatures through the week and into the beginning of next weekend will remain above normal with highs in the lower 90s across the east coast metro, and mid/upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Max heat indices will linger near advisory criteria each day, especially in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Collier counties. Low temps each night will be in the mid to upper 70s, and around 80 near the Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 VFR to start the 06Z TAF period. Light NE winds this morning increase to around 10 kts after 15Z. A mid afternoon Gulf breeze is likely at APF. An isolated late day thunderstorm is possible at APF, while the east coast terminals should remain dry. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Gentle NE flow expected today shifting to an easterly flow on Monday. Seas in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters will be 2 ft or less. An isolated thunderstorm is possible today with scattered storms possible on Monday which may result in locally higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 79 92 79 / 10 20 20 10 West Kendall 93 76 93 76 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 94 78 94 79 / 10 20 20 10 Homestead 91 78 91 78 / 10 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 91 79 / 10 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 92 79 / 10 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 95 81 95 81 / 10 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 78 92 78 / 10 0 10 10 Boca Raton 93 78 93 78 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 95 78 95 79 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...CMF