348
FXUS62 KMFL 101849
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
249 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

As the mid-level trough deepens across the CONUS eastern seaboard,
activity amps up today as the southeasterly winds escort more
moisture into the region with the help of the sea breezes. After a
busy morning with isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the east coast, the showers and thunderstorms will begin to
zone in on the interior and Gulf Coast as the Atlantic sea breeze
kicks in. For the remainder of the day, the most robust convection
is likely across the interior throughout the afternoon and as the
evening progresses. Potential hazards include heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds will all be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms. As the day concludes, most activity will
remain over local waters, with winds declining over land.

On Wednesday, as we await the return of the western Atlantic high
and ridging, the models are continue to indicate there will be surge
of moisture into South Florida, as PWATs are forecast to climb to
2.0 to 2.2 inches. With strong southeasterly flow, this will promote
increased convective development, especially across southwest
Florida where the prevailing flow will meet the Gulf breeze.
Deterministic models have QPF values ranging from 2-3 inches of rain
across that region Wednesday afternoon. However, SPC`s HREF
continues to show LPMM bulls-eyes of up to 4-5 inches of rain across
portions of the interior and southwest Florida. With the forecast
for total rainfall tomorrow, the WPC has all of South FL with a
marginal risk (at least 5%) for excessive rainfall. While much of
this area remains in severe to extreme drought conditions and
could use the rain, there remain some concerns that repeated
rounds of rain associated with this system could result in
localized flooding, especially in the communities and urban hubs
across southwest Florida.

There will be a cooling trend due to cloud coverage and convective
activity, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 80s across the east
coast, and barely hitting the 90s across southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Mid-level ridging will begin to build back, as the surface high from
the western Atlantic moves back into the FL Peninsula on Thursday
and remain in place for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
Therefore, any afternoon convective activity will be fueled by
afternoon sea breeze processes. There continues to indicate the
return of drier air, due to the arrival of more Saharan dust
(SAL), by the end of next week in increasing easterly deep layer
flow. However, the timing and magnitude of this drier air is still
uncertain and will be monitored going forward. PWAT forecasts
continue to support the arrival of drier air, with models showing below
normal levels of moisture, as values drop from the impressive
2.0"+ we`re sitting at now.

Convective activity each afternoon may help moderate temperatures
through the long term period but conditions will still be warm, with
highs in the lows 90s each afternoon. Lows each night will also
remain balmy, only dropping to the upper 70s along the coastlines
and lower 70s over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across South FL with the
coverage progressing further interior and the Gulf coast by late
afternoon. Chances for SCT showers and storms early afternoon
across east coast terminals will diminish by late afternoon.
MVFR/IFR conditions possible with passing storms due to poor
CIGS/VIS. Gusty winds, up to 20-25 KT, possible with showers/storms.
After 02Z, most activity will remain over the water and winds
become light overnight. Active weather returns tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds expected this week as high pressure
continues to sit over the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection,
seas over the next several days generally 2 ft or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Rip current risks will become elevated along the Atlantic coast
as onshore winds increase through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  88  79  88 /  50  80  40  70
West Kendall     77  88  76  89 /  40  80  40  70
Opa-Locka        80  89  78  89 /  40  70  40  70
Homestead        79  87  78  88 /  50  80  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  87  79  87 /  50  70  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  80  87  79  88 /  40  70  40  70
Pembroke Pines   81  91  81  92 /  40  70  40  70
West Palm Beach  79  87  78  89 /  40  70  30  70
Boca Raton       80  89  78  89 /  40  70  40  70
Naples           74  89  74  88 /  50  80  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...JS