918 FXUS62 KMFL 311551 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1151 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A more active weather pattern begins this weekend as mid-level troughing pushes over the region and a weak frontal boundary progresses southward and stalls. The front is currently positioned just north of Lake Okeechobee and scattered showers and storms are gradually progressing southward and are beginning to impact the Lake Okeechobee region and interior South Florida. The latest HREF model guidance is emphasizing that showers and thunderstorms will have the greatest impact to the north of Alligator Alley (60-75%) on Saturday. The probability for substantial instability to support strong to severe thunderstorms is more favorable to the north of Alligator Alley and declines as activity moves further south across the region, but the northern portions of the CWA remain in a Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center. The line of shower and storm activity is expected to slowly progress southward ahead of the front and weaken through the day becoming more isolated in coverage by the late afternoon and evening. Despite the anticipated weakening trend, the potential for one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out as the front coincides with peak diurnal heating. Any strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon will be accompanied with the potential for gusty winds, brief downpours, and frequent lightning. A lull in shower and storm activity is expected overnight, although CAMs depict a similarly active setup for Sunday as the front remains draped just north of the area. A line of showers and storms will be approaching from the north by the mid to late morning hours and progress southward across the area through the day. Similarly to today, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with heavy downpours, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts all a possibility in the strongest activity. High temperatures today and Sunday will generally rise into the upper 80s along and north of Alligator Alley, and into the lower 90s south of Alligator Alley. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 The unsettled pattern continues into the first half of the new work- week. Mid-level longwave troughing will remain in place. However, a secondary vort max will come down and round the base of the trough on Monday into Monday night which may aid in trough amplification over the region. This secondary vort max plays a big role in the forecast and while the degree of uncertainty is still rather high, trends in the guidance over the past 12 to 24 hours have show signals of shifting to a stronger vort max pushing further south closer to the region. This will add an extra source of lift to the area when combined with the stalled out frontal boundary draped across the region. PWAT values will slowly rise between 1.7-2" by Monday afternoon which will provide additional moisture for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, this will continue to keep the threat for localized urban flooding across the east coast metro areas. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms with the strong shortwave passing through. These storms may have the threat for strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours on Monday afternoon and evening. Exact details and timing will continue to become clearer over the next day but shower and storm activity will potentially favor the eastern portion of South Florida during the afternoon and evening, as surface flow remains south to southwesterly. Heading towards the middle of the week, unsettled conditions continue as moisture lingers across the region. Periods of showers and storms will be possible each day through the remainder of the week with probabilities maximized during the afternoon. This period takes on additional uncertainty as amplifying mid level troughing tries to wrap up into a mid level low off of the Southeast coastline on Wednesday. The latest guidance suite remains in disagreement with the evolution of this low in regard to location and how strong it actually becomes. ECMWF solutions shows a stronger mid level low developing further to the north, while GFS solutions show a weaker mid level low developing further to the south off of the Florida Coastline.At the same time, a plume of Saharan Dust may push into South Florida from the Carribean which could potentially bring some drier air into the region which could affect convection coverage. Overall, higher than usual uncertainty through the long term, although it is leaning towards more unsettled conditions and afternoon/evening showers and storms. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps likely chances of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely at all sites later today as a cold front approaches. Best timing for impacts look to be between 18-22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail before the afternoon with generally westerly winds up to 10-12 kts. Convection will taper off around sunset and winds will relax overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Gentle to moderate winds will gradually become more westerly over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves over the region and stalls out. Chances for showers and storms over local waters remains elevated through the weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across the Florida peninsula. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any thunderstorm that develops may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 78 91 78 / 60 40 60 60 West Kendall 94 75 92 75 / 50 40 60 60 Opa-Locka 94 78 93 77 / 60 40 60 50 Homestead 93 77 91 76 / 40 40 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 N Ft Lauderdale 91 77 90 77 / 70 50 70 50 Pembroke Pines 96 78 94 78 / 70 40 70 50 West Palm Beach 90 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40 Boca Raton 93 75 91 75 / 70 50 80 50 Naples 88 75 87 76 / 60 70 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...ATV