306
FXUS62 KMFL 171108
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
608 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

  - Mainly dry conditions continue today with the exception of a
    brief isolated shower or two mainly along the east coast.

  - Chances of showers will increase heading into Thursday
    afternoon into Friday as a weakening cold front approaches and
    moves through the region.

  - A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
    Coast beaches through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Weak mid level ridging will generally remain in place across South
Florida today, however, the ridge axis will shift off into the
western Atlantic as the day progresses out ahead of an amplifying
trough pushing into the western Gulf from the Southern Plains. This
will help to create a wind shift aloft as the winds gradually
become west then southwesterly as the day progresses. At the
surface, high pressure centered off to the northeast will continue
to shift further eastward into the Atlantic. South Florida will
remain on the southwestern periphery of this ridge today and
tonight. This shift will allow for the pressure gradient at the
surface to decrease across the region as winds will remain
easterly into this afternoon into tonight. Some moisture advection
will begin to occur throughout the column as mid level winds
become southwesterly today. While PWATs will still remain low
enough today to support mainly dry conditions, they could rise and
range from 1.0 to 1.2 inches this afternoon across Southwest
Florida as well as locations south of Alligator Alley. The will be
just enough moisture to support isolated shower development along
the easterly breeze today and tonight. Any shower development
will remain rather low topped and short lived as the dry air layer
in the mid to upper levels will be very slow to erode. High
temperatures today will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s
while low temperatures tonight range from around 60 west of Lake
Okeechobee to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

Heading into Thursday, mid level ridging gets shunted further to
the east as the approaching mid level shortwave trough pushes
eastward across the Gulf. At the surface, an elongated frontal
boundary will extend southwestward from the Great Lakes region
through the Midwest and down into the Deep South as well as into
the northern Gulf. These two features will help to increase
moisture across the region as southwesterly winds continue aloft
and winds at the surface begin to veer and become southeasterly as
the day progresses. The global and ensemble guidance suite shows
PWATs rapidly increasing on Thursday and eventually ranging
between 1.5 to 1.7 across most of the area by the afternoon hours.
This will be enough to allow for a low end chance of showers area
wide mainly during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Most of the
activity will be isolated to scattered in nature, however, a rouge
thunderstorm or two cannot be entirely ruled out later in the
day. High temperatures on Thursday will rise into the lower 80s
across most areas, however, mid 80s are possible across the
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Heading into Thursday night and Friday the mid level shortwave
trough sweeps eastward across most of the Florida Peninsula and then
northeastward into the western Atlantic. The latest global and
ensemble model suite has shifted the passage of the trough axis a
bit further south, however, that doesnt really change the impacts of
the sensible weather much as the best mid to upper level support
still remains well off to the north. At the surface, this will
cause the frontal boundary to rapidly weaken as it slowly moves
southeastward into the region later on Friday. This will keep just
enough lower level moisture in place out ahead of the front to
support a low end chance of showers especially across the eastern
areas through Friday. Chances of thunderstorm development will
remain on the low side as the best lifting mechanisms in the mid
to upper levels remain up to the north. With southwesterly winds
developing ahead of the front on Friday, high temperatures will
remain warm as they rise into the lower to mid 80s across most of
the region.

For the upcoming weekend, uncertainty in the forecast rises a bit
as mid level ridging tries to build back in from the south, and a
strong area of high pressure tries to build in from the north at
the surface. The question in place will be what happens with the
dissipating frontal boundary as guidance continues to show some
lingering moisture pooling over the area with the front stalled
out nearby or just to the south. This scenario keeps the really
dry air locked in place further away from the region across
Central and Northern Florida. Winds will remain east northeasterly
through the weekend and with just enough moisture in place, a
slight chance of showers cannot be ruled out especially during the
afternoon hours during peak diurnal heating. High temperatures
over the weekend will generally remain in the lower 80s across
most areas, however, mid 80s will be possible across interior
sections of Southwest Florida.

Early next week, the latest ensemble guidance shows a rather strong
mid level ridge expanding northeastward across the Southern Plains
and into the Southeast. With a large surface area of high pressure
centered off to the northeast, this will help to keep mainly dry
conditions in place during this time frame. The only exception to
this will be the slight chance of a shower or two along the east
coast with the east northeasterly wind flow in place. High temperatures
will be near or slightly above climatological normals during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Light and variable winds early this morning becoming easterly
around 10 kts. A mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze is likely for
a brief time at APF. Light and variable winds expected tonight and
overnight. A few widely scattered light showers possible today
across the east coast metro.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

A moderate easterly breeze will continue across most of the local
waters today before shifting and become southeasterly on Thursday.
These winds may become occasionally fresh across the Atlantic waters
during this time frame. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range
from 3 to 5 feet today before diminishing and ranging between 2 to 4
feet on Thursday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 1 to 3
feet through Thursday. Chances of showers will increase across all
local waters on Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches and
moves over the region from the northwest. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out on Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Due to persistent onshore flow, a high risk of rip currents will
continue through Thursday across the Atlantic Coast beaches. The
risk of rip currents will gradually diminish on Friday as winds
shift and become southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  70  82  71 /  10  10  30  30
West Kendall     79  66  83  68 /  10  10  30  30
Opa-Locka        79  69  83  71 /  10  10  30  30
Homestead        79  69  82  71 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  70  80  71 /  10  10  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  77  70  81  71 /  10  10  30  30
Pembroke Pines   79  68  83  70 /  10  10  30  30
West Palm Beach  78  69  82  71 /  10  10  30  40
Boca Raton       79  69  83  71 /  10  10  30  40
Naples           82  64  83  69 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF