918
FXUS62 KMFL 311551
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1151 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

A more active weather pattern begins this weekend as mid-level
troughing pushes over the region and a weak frontal boundary
progresses southward and stalls. The front is currently positioned
just north of Lake Okeechobee and scattered showers and storms are
gradually progressing southward and are beginning to impact the Lake
Okeechobee region and interior South Florida. The latest HREF model
guidance is emphasizing that showers and thunderstorms will have the
greatest impact to the north of Alligator Alley (60-75%) on
Saturday. The probability for substantial instability to support
strong to severe thunderstorms is more favorable to the north of
Alligator Alley and declines as activity moves further south across
the region, but the northern portions of the CWA remain in a
Marginal Risk for severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center.
The line of  shower and storm activity is expected to slowly
progress southward ahead of the front and weaken through the day
becoming more isolated in coverage by the late afternoon and
evening. Despite the anticipated weakening trend, the potential for
one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out as the front coincides
with  peak diurnal heating. Any strong to severe thunderstorms each
afternoon will be accompanied with the potential for gusty winds,
brief downpours, and frequent lightning.

A lull in shower and storm activity is expected overnight, although
CAMs depict a similarly active setup for Sunday as the front remains
draped just north of the area. A line of showers and storms will be
approaching from the north by the mid to late morning hours and
progress southward across the area through the day. Similarly to
today, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with heavy downpours,
frequent lightning and strong wind gusts all a possibility in the
strongest activity.

High temperatures today and Sunday will generally rise into the
upper 80s along and north of Alligator Alley, and into the lower 90s
south of Alligator Alley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

The unsettled pattern continues into the first half of the new work-
week. Mid-level longwave troughing will remain in place. However, a
secondary vort max will come down and round the base of the trough
on Monday into Monday night which may aid in trough amplification
over the region. This secondary vort max plays a big role in the
forecast and while the degree of uncertainty is still rather high,
trends in the guidance over the past 12 to 24 hours have show
signals of shifting to a stronger vort max pushing further south
closer to the region. This will add an extra source of lift to the
area when combined with the stalled out frontal boundary draped
across the region. PWAT values will slowly rise between 1.7-2" by
Monday afternoon which will provide additional moisture for more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. While the exact details
still need to be ironed out, this will continue to keep the threat
for localized urban flooding across the east coast metro areas.
There is potential for a few strong to severe storms with the strong
shortwave passing through. These storms may have the threat for
strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours on Monday
afternoon and evening. Exact details and timing will continue to
become clearer over the next day but shower and storm activity will
potentially favor the eastern portion of South Florida during the
afternoon and evening, as surface flow remains south to
southwesterly.

Heading towards the middle of the week, unsettled conditions
continue as moisture lingers across the region. Periods of showers
and storms will be possible each day through the remainder of the
week with probabilities maximized during the afternoon. This period
takes on additional uncertainty as amplifying mid level troughing
tries to wrap up into a mid level low off of the Southeast coastline
on Wednesday. The latest guidance suite remains in disagreement with
the evolution of this low in regard to location and how strong it
actually becomes. ECMWF solutions shows a stronger mid level low
developing further to the north, while GFS solutions show a weaker
mid level low developing further to the south off of the Florida
Coastline.At the same time, a  plume of Saharan Dust may push into
South Florida from the Carribean which could potentially bring some
drier air into the region which could affect convection coverage.
Overall, higher than usual uncertainty through the long term,
although it is leaning towards more unsettled conditions and
afternoon/evening showers and storms. The latest forecast takes a
blend of the models and keeps likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely at all sites later today as a
cold front approaches. Best timing for impacts look to be between
18-22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail before the afternoon
with generally westerly winds up to 10-12 kts. Convection will
taper off around sunset and winds will relax overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Gentle to moderate winds will gradually become more westerly over
the weekend as a frontal boundary moves over the region and
stalls out. Chances for showers and storms over local waters remains
elevated through the weekend as a frontal boundary lingers across
the Florida peninsula. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
remain at 3 feet or less through the weekend while seas across
the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Any thunderstorm that
develops may produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  78  91  78 /  60  40  60  60
West Kendall     94  75  92  75 /  50  40  60  60
Opa-Locka        94  78  93  77 /  60  40  60  50
Homestead        93  77  91  76 /  40  40  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  91  77  90  77 /  70  50  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  91  77  90  77 /  70  50  70  50
Pembroke Pines   96  78  94  78 /  70  40  70  50
West Palm Beach  90  75  88  74 /  70  60  80  40
Boca Raton       93  75  91  75 /  70  50  80  50
Naples           88  75  87  76 /  60  70  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV