348 FXUS62 KMFL 101849 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 As the mid-level trough deepens across the CONUS eastern seaboard, activity amps up today as the southeasterly winds escort more moisture into the region with the help of the sea breezes. After a busy morning with isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms across the east coast, the showers and thunderstorms will begin to zone in on the interior and Gulf Coast as the Atlantic sea breeze kicks in. For the remainder of the day, the most robust convection is likely across the interior throughout the afternoon and as the evening progresses. Potential hazards include heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will all be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. As the day concludes, most activity will remain over local waters, with winds declining over land. On Wednesday, as we await the return of the western Atlantic high and ridging, the models are continue to indicate there will be surge of moisture into South Florida, as PWATs are forecast to climb to 2.0 to 2.2 inches. With strong southeasterly flow, this will promote increased convective development, especially across southwest Florida where the prevailing flow will meet the Gulf breeze. Deterministic models have QPF values ranging from 2-3 inches of rain across that region Wednesday afternoon. However, SPC`s HREF continues to show LPMM bulls-eyes of up to 4-5 inches of rain across portions of the interior and southwest Florida. With the forecast for total rainfall tomorrow, the WPC has all of South FL with a marginal risk (at least 5%) for excessive rainfall. While much of this area remains in severe to extreme drought conditions and could use the rain, there remain some concerns that repeated rounds of rain associated with this system could result in localized flooding, especially in the communities and urban hubs across southwest Florida. There will be a cooling trend due to cloud coverage and convective activity, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 80s across the east coast, and barely hitting the 90s across southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Mid-level ridging will begin to build back, as the surface high from the western Atlantic moves back into the FL Peninsula on Thursday and remain in place for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Therefore, any afternoon convective activity will be fueled by afternoon sea breeze processes. There continues to indicate the return of drier air, due to the arrival of more Saharan dust (SAL), by the end of next week in increasing easterly deep layer flow. However, the timing and magnitude of this drier air is still uncertain and will be monitored going forward. PWAT forecasts continue to support the arrival of drier air, with models showing below normal levels of moisture, as values drop from the impressive 2.0"+ we`re sitting at now. Convective activity each afternoon may help moderate temperatures through the long term period but conditions will still be warm, with highs in the lows 90s each afternoon. Lows each night will also remain balmy, only dropping to the upper 70s along the coastlines and lower 70s over the interior. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms across South FL with the coverage progressing further interior and the Gulf coast by late afternoon. Chances for SCT showers and storms early afternoon across east coast terminals will diminish by late afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions possible with passing storms due to poor CIGS/VIS. Gusty winds, up to 20-25 KT, possible with showers/storms. After 02Z, most activity will remain over the water and winds become light overnight. Active weather returns tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds expected this week as high pressure continues to sit over the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, seas over the next several days generally 2 ft or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Rip current risks will become elevated along the Atlantic coast as onshore winds increase through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 88 79 88 / 50 80 40 70 West Kendall 77 88 76 89 / 40 80 40 70 Opa-Locka 80 89 78 89 / 40 70 40 70 Homestead 79 87 78 88 / 50 80 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 87 79 87 / 50 70 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 80 87 79 88 / 40 70 40 70 Pembroke Pines 81 91 81 92 / 40 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 79 87 78 89 / 40 70 30 70 Boca Raton 80 89 78 89 / 40 70 40 70 Naples 74 89 74 88 / 50 80 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...JS