418
FXUS62 KMFL 071127
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
727 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Overall synoptic regime won`t change much today, at least from the
latest model consensus perspective. The lingering/decaying frontal
boundary over the Florida panhandle area will drift a little
southward, a little closer to central Florida by late this morning.
Meanwhile, weak U/L ridging over central Florida continues to
gradually erode as an area of disturbed weather over the
Bahamas/west Atlantic becomes better organized. The ridge axis
migrates further west into the central Gulf region, but still
keeping the area under weak pressure gradients and weak L/L flow.

Periods of light and variable winds are still expected today, which
will again allow for sea breezes to dominate convection development.
00Z MFL weather balloon sounding data and model soundings depict
increasing deep moisture advection with PWATs over 2 inches through
the next several days. This will help in pushing highest POPs/Wx
coverage into the 90 percent range by Friday afternoon, with
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day.

The weak easterly flow should allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to
dominate and push the highest POPs into the western half of SoFlo
late in the afternoon. However, mid-late morning showers/storms are
also possible around the Atlantic coast, then pushing inland with
the sea breeze. DCAPE values remain around 750 J/kg, but the lifting
provided by the sea breeze boundaries, along with outflow boundary
collisions from convection, could provide enough support for a few
strong to severe cells. Main hazards will be frequent lightning
strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large
hail. Also, potential for localized flooding will increase as the
weak synoptic flow may allow for slow-moving downpours and
training of cells.

The increased weather activity and cloud cover should keep afternoon
high temps a little bit cooler in the low 90s each day. This may not
be much, but probably enough to preclude heat advisory conditions.
Nighttime lows will remain in the mid-upper 70s inland, and in the
low 80s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Models continue to keep a weather pattern dominated by the diurnal
heating cycle, with sea breezes becoming the main source for L/L
instability, lifting and deep convection. Ensembles and long range
globals are trending towards keeping the frontal boundary over
northern Florida lingering for a little longer, at least through the
end of the weekend or early next week. Meanwhile, two areas of low
pressure will also linger at either side of the Florida peninsula.
The moisture field associated with these features will continue to
drive shower and thunderstorm activity over SoFlo through early next
week. The bulk of convective activity is still expected during the
afternoon hours and into the early evening hours each day. POPs/Wx
coverage will remain in the 60-80 percent range, higher over west
SoFlo. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher will support localized
heavy showers, especially with slow-moving thunderstorms. Therefore,
the unsettled weather pattern will prevail through much of the long
term. Main hazards will again be frequent lightning strikes,
damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large hail.

By Tuesday, the boundary finally breaks down and high pressure
expands across the SE CONUS. This will finally begin modifying the
regional air mass and allow for a downward trend in POPs. But at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms should still develop
Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures remain in the low 90s near the coasts, and mid-
upper 90s for inland and western areas. Nighttime lows should remain
in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Not much change for the 12z TAF package. Still expect showers to
transition to storms along the east coast mid-morning through the
early afternoon. Then, storms should move west into the interior
and towards the west coast. Transitioned from TEMPOs to PROB30s
down the east coast to show slightly lower confidence in storms
impacting a terminal as they may develop further inland. Kept the
TEMPO at APF as confidence is much higher in impacts late in the
afternoon along the west coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Light to moderate east-northeast winds continue today, shifting
more easterly during the weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift
to west-southwesterly winds over the west coast each afternoon.
Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around thunderstorms,
which could produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Rip current risk will remain moderate across the West Palm Beach
coastal waters for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  91  81 /  90  60  80  50
West Kendall     90  76  90  78 /  90  60  80  60
Opa-Locka        91  79  92  79 /  90  60  80  50
Homestead        89  77  89  79 /  80  60  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  80 /  90  60  70  60
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  91  81 /  90  60  70  50
Pembroke Pines   93  80  93  81 /  90  60  70  50
West Palm Beach  90  79  92  79 /  80  50  70  50
Boca Raton       92  79  92  79 /  90  60  70  50
Naples           93  77  92  77 /  80  60  90  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Harrigan