418 FXUS62 KMFL 071127 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 727 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Overall synoptic regime won`t change much today, at least from the latest model consensus perspective. The lingering/decaying frontal boundary over the Florida panhandle area will drift a little southward, a little closer to central Florida by late this morning. Meanwhile, weak U/L ridging over central Florida continues to gradually erode as an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas/west Atlantic becomes better organized. The ridge axis migrates further west into the central Gulf region, but still keeping the area under weak pressure gradients and weak L/L flow. Periods of light and variable winds are still expected today, which will again allow for sea breezes to dominate convection development. 00Z MFL weather balloon sounding data and model soundings depict increasing deep moisture advection with PWATs over 2 inches through the next several days. This will help in pushing highest POPs/Wx coverage into the 90 percent range by Friday afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day. The weak easterly flow should allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to dominate and push the highest POPs into the western half of SoFlo late in the afternoon. However, mid-late morning showers/storms are also possible around the Atlantic coast, then pushing inland with the sea breeze. DCAPE values remain around 750 J/kg, but the lifting provided by the sea breeze boundaries, along with outflow boundary collisions from convection, could provide enough support for a few strong to severe cells. Main hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large hail. Also, potential for localized flooding will increase as the weak synoptic flow may allow for slow-moving downpours and training of cells. The increased weather activity and cloud cover should keep afternoon high temps a little bit cooler in the low 90s each day. This may not be much, but probably enough to preclude heat advisory conditions. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid-upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s closer to the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Models continue to keep a weather pattern dominated by the diurnal heating cycle, with sea breezes becoming the main source for L/L instability, lifting and deep convection. Ensembles and long range globals are trending towards keeping the frontal boundary over northern Florida lingering for a little longer, at least through the end of the weekend or early next week. Meanwhile, two areas of low pressure will also linger at either side of the Florida peninsula. The moisture field associated with these features will continue to drive shower and thunderstorm activity over SoFlo through early next week. The bulk of convective activity is still expected during the afternoon hours and into the early evening hours each day. POPs/Wx coverage will remain in the 60-80 percent range, higher over west SoFlo. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher will support localized heavy showers, especially with slow-moving thunderstorms. Therefore, the unsettled weather pattern will prevail through much of the long term. Main hazards will again be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large hail. By Tuesday, the boundary finally breaks down and high pressure expands across the SE CONUS. This will finally begin modifying the regional air mass and allow for a downward trend in POPs. But at least scattered showers and thunderstorms should still develop Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures remain in the low 90s near the coasts, and mid- upper 90s for inland and western areas. Nighttime lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Not much change for the 12z TAF package. Still expect showers to transition to storms along the east coast mid-morning through the early afternoon. Then, storms should move west into the interior and towards the west coast. Transitioned from TEMPOs to PROB30s down the east coast to show slightly lower confidence in storms impacting a terminal as they may develop further inland. Kept the TEMPO at APF as confidence is much higher in impacts late in the afternoon along the west coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Light to moderate east-northeast winds continue today, shifting more easterly during the weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Rip current risk will remain moderate across the West Palm Beach coastal waters for the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 91 81 / 90 60 80 50 West Kendall 90 76 90 78 / 90 60 80 60 Opa-Locka 91 79 92 79 / 90 60 80 50 Homestead 89 77 89 79 / 80 60 80 60 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 90 80 / 90 60 70 60 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 91 81 / 90 60 70 50 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 81 / 90 60 70 50 West Palm Beach 90 79 92 79 / 80 50 70 50 Boca Raton 92 79 92 79 / 90 60 70 50 Naples 93 77 92 77 / 80 60 90 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...Harrigan