333
FXUS62 KMLB 020540
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening for
areas south of I-4, with a low chance (5-14%) of wind gusts of
60+ MPH and coin-sized hail.
- Scattered to numerous storms through midweek, peaking along the
Treasure Coast today and across all of East Central Florida
Wednesday. Frequent lightning and localized flooding in urban or
poorly drained areas are the primary hazards.
- As patchy Saharan dust arrives and lingers later this week,
storm chances dip closer to normal for early June. Increasing
heat risk by the weekend, with highs in the low/mid 90s and peak
heat indices near 105 F.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
-----------Synoptic Overview-----------
GOES WV imagery and the 02/00Z RAOB analysis reveal a deep trough
over Quebec with its axis extending southward to Florida. On the
southwest flank of the trough, a shortwave is diving through the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Weak shortwave ridging resides ahead of
this feature, generally over Florida early this morning. A diffuse
frontal boundary and impressive moisture discontinuity remain
situated over the Florida Peninsula.
Over the next few days, ensemble guidance shows the shortwave
drifting overhead and stalling as ridging builds north of Florida.
Coincident jet stream diffluence near and to the east of the feature
will place much of Florida in a zone of broad synoptic ascent. In
response, members suggest the old surface boundary sharpens slightly
and gradually lifts northward through the middle of the week,
drawing the reservoir of anomalous tropical moisture back over
Central Florida through at least Wednesday or Thursday. A weak
surface low could develop along the boundary by Wednesday. This
feature is forecast to lift north of Florida from late Thursday
through the weekend.
By Friday and Saturday, mid-level ridging is expected to take its
place as a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lifts from the Greater Antilles
toward Florida. Moisture values are anticipated to fall to near or
even slightly below normal, especially over the southern half of the
state. Late next weekend, guidance shows a trough moving back into
the Great Lakes causing a weakness in the ridge over Florida.
Regardless, a surface high pressure axis should become centered
near Central or South Florida late this week and through the
weekend. 5 KFT temperatures are forecast to rise above normal
beginning Wednesday through the end of the forecast period.
-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------
Today - Tonight...
The approaching disturbance and associated lift should be on our
doorstep this afternoon into tonight. Its interaction with the sea
breeze, a leftover surface trough, and high moisture necessitates 60-
80% coverage of showers and storms south of Kissimmee to Melbourne,
decreasing to 20-50% along the I-4 corridor. The highest chance for
showers and storms is from 2 PM until around midnight. Within the
higher coverage area (southern half of the district), proximity
soundings indicate a moderately unstable environment with slightly
colder-than-normal mid-level temperatures and modest bulk shear.
Expect prolific rainfall from storms, with at least a low (5-14%)
chance for excessive rainfall amounts causing flooding in poorly
drained and/or urban locales. Reasonable high-end rainfall amounts
are 3-5" today from southern Brevard and Osceola Counties
southward. There is also a less than 15% chance for a few strong
storms with wind gusts to around 60 mph and coin-sized hail.
Seasonably warm to hot temps are forecast with the warmest readings
(low 90s) from I-4 northward.
Tuesday - Thursday...
Remaining quite unsettled as the upper disturbance sharpens the old
front and lifts it northward through Central Florida. Showers and
storms remain in the forecast for much of the period. However, the
highest chances for rain/storms (widespread 60-80%) appear to be on
Wednesday as the boundary is passing overhead. While the threat of
severe weather appears relatively low on Tue/Wed due to the nearly
saturated column, a few gusty storms still cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, the presence of a low-level boundary supports a non-
zero risk for a brief tornado, though the threat remains low.
Locally heavy rain from repeated storms continues to be a focus for
this timeframe, with a continued low chance for some brief flooding
of urban and poorly drained locations.
As the boundary slowly shifts toward N Fla on Thursday, rain and
storm chances subtly decrease for our southern communities, with 50-
70% coverage forecast from south to north. Drier air begins to
filter in from the south as the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) impinges
from the Bahamas. Any stronger storms that develop in this
environment could produce strong outflow winds due to elevated
downdraft CAPE (dCAPE) values.
Due to the clouds and showers, most places will hold in the
mid/upper 80s for highs each day.
Friday - Next Weekend...
The stubborn disturbance finally gets kicked north of here, leaving
an axis of high pressure nearby through the weekend. Daily 40-60%
chances for showers and storms continue, but these should be more of
the typical summertime afternoon and evening variety.
Less cloud cover, high dew points, and warm boundary-layer temps
raise concern for excessive heat impacts this weekend. Currently,
our forecast calls for low/mid 90s beginning Saturday, with peak
heat indices of 100-105 deg F anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
A weak, stalled front remains over the local Atlantic waters.
Slowly, this front begins to retreat northward from late Tuesday
into Wednesday before lifting out of the local area. Scattered to
numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast through at least
the middle of the week. High pressure then builds over the waters
late this week and into next weekend.
Generally light winds today should allow for a robust sea breeze
along the coast. Winds freshen from the E 10-15 KT on Tuesday before
shifting to the SE on Wednesday and Thursday. Seas 2-3 FT through
Tuesday, then 2-4 FT Wed/Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Scattered to
numerous afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop along
the sea breeze today, mainly from MCO/TIX southward. Development is
forecast to begin around 20Z, with tempos included from 21/22-23/1Z.
Convection looks to persist the longest over the interior (near
MCO/ISM), where the sea breeze collision is expected. A few storms
could be strong to marginally severe. Light southerly winds in the
morning hours will back onshore as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland, with winds 8-10 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Daily chances for lightning storms persist through the week, highest
late today over the Treasure Coast and again by Wednesday for all
areas. RH values remain above critical thresholds but approach 35-
40% over northern Lake and Volusia counties this afternoon. Moisture
increases over all areas for the remainder of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 71 85 72 / 20 20 50 40
MCO 89 71 87 72 / 50 40 60 40
MLB 88 71 85 73 / 60 60 70 60
VRB 89 69 84 72 / 80 70 80 60
LEE 90 71 88 72 / 30 20 60 30
SFB 91 71 88 72 / 30 30 60 40
ORL 90 71 88 73 / 40 40 60 40
FPR 87 68 83 70 / 80 70 80 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Leahy