914 FXUS62 KTBW 110020 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 820 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 High pressure continues to hold over the region this evening with warm temperatures. Local seabreeze patterns are currently dominating, pushing inwards from both the west and east coasts of Florida. These seabreeze boundaries have collided over the interior and have generated a north/south oriented band of broken showers. Shower activity will dissipate before midnight with skies becoming mostly clear across west central and southwest Florida. The next cold front is set to approach the nature coast tomorrow afternoon. SPC has the northern nature coast in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late tomorrow, although that will be dependent on the band of showers/storms currently well to the north of the area holding together and reaching the nature coast ahead of the cold front as U/L energy will be lifting well to the northeast of the area at that time. The front will push south across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida Friday night with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Gusty west winds will develop ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon...with gusty northwest winds in the wake of the front tomorrow night. This will create a risk for strong rip currents along area beaches. Cooler drier air will advect across the region Friday night and Saturday behind the front as high pressure builds back over the area. && .DISCUSSION... Troughing remains over the eastern part of the country this afternoon while at the surface, Florida sits in between high pressure to the northeast and a trough near the Bahamas. This pattern will keep near-normal temperatures in place through tomorrow with dew points in the 50s keeping conditions rather pleasant. For the afternoon and evening, a cold front will move over the peninsula, with isolated/scattered showers and a few storms expected, mainly over the Nature Coast. SPC is carrying a marginal risk for a severe storm or two for Levy County, though it is worth noting that the risk is rather limited. Moisture is rather low, but whatever does form will be moving in during peak heating hours, so there will be some instability, and this, along with deep-layer shear of 40-50 knots could support isolated large hail and/or damaging wind gusts if a stronger storm develops. For the rest of Friday night, a few showers will could move over the southern half of the forecast area, but chances are generally less than 20% and rain- free conditions are expected by daybreak. High pressure moves in for the weekend, with pleasant and dry weather expected. Temperatures then quickly warm starting Monday and these warmer and drier conditions continue through the week. | && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A few showers this evening just to the east of LAL, RSW, and FWY...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Friday. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the waters today, then a cold front moves through the region Friday afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for a few showers and storms. Winds will increase to exercise caution levels Friday night and remain a bit elevated into Saturday. Conditions then improve for Sunday into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure remains over the region until a cold front moves across the peninsula on Friday, bringing a few showers and storms to mainly the northern part of the forecast area. Behind the front, much drier air will move into the area, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to critical values for the interior Saturday afternoon and for more of the local area Sunday afternoon. For Saturday, winds are forecast to be near Red Flag criteria but then winds subside for for Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 65 81 63 76 / 0 0 20 0 FMY 63 84 64 79 / 10 0 20 0 GIF 61 85 59 78 / 20 0 10 0 SRQ 65 80 65 76 / 0 0 20 0 BKV 56 82 54 75 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 67 79 66 74 / 0 0 20 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn