843 FXUS62 KTBW 280548 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Upper-level ridging has continued retrograding from this time yesterday. In response, the surface high is now over the Western FL Panhandle and extends into the North Central Gulf and stretches west out to East Texas. A light NE flow with a SFC-3km average of 5 knots continues to be dominant, delaying sea breeze formation and favoring hot and dry weather overall. The 0Z sounding shows that the atmosphere above approx. 650 mb dries out considerably. Mid-level water vapor imagery further supports this with a large area of dry air wrapping around the large ridge axis from the central CONUS. As pockets of Saharan dust continue to advect in at the lower levels, this once again favors an overall hot, dry day. As has been the theme this weekend, the heat remains the top story. Many records were broken yesterday. That trend looks to continue today. The combination of high temperatures and still relatively humid surface conditions will once again favor heat indices of 106 to 112 across the region, with isolated pockets potentially climbing even higher. A Heat Advisory remains in effect once again today for this hot and mostly dry weather. There could again be some relief for coastal areas late as a few thunderstorms again develop. Any storms that do form will carry an elevated risk for strong winds given the dryness of the atmosphere. The best chances are favored after max heating, though, so the biggest benefit is more likely to be a slightly reduced overnight temperature rather than a meaningfully cooler afternoon. Thus, residents and visitors alike should continue to practice good heat safety. Limit time spent outdoors when possible, wear long sleeves, seek shade, and - most importantly - stay hydrated. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Tuesday looks to be the last day of above average temperatures across the region. This is due to an erosion of the continental high with a longwave trough digging into the Northeast. As the trough propagates eastward, the subtropical ridge can then build back in, bringing deeper moisture along with it to usher back in the return of the more typical daily showers and thunderstorms to carry us through the weekend. However, the subtropical ridge will take some time to build back into the area. Thus the low-level flow is favored to be more WSW. Depending the strength of this flow, thunderstorm timing could be a bit earlier in the day as opposed to later. If the flow ends up being a little stronger, than coastal areas would have the best chance of seeing a storm from close to sunrise through about midday before thunderstorms transition inland. As the weekend approaches, additional upper-level energy in the form of a digging shortwave appears to arrive in the area. When coupled with a deep, tropical atmosphere, this favors enhanced rain chances especially for Sunday and into Monday next week. After the last few days, some days with better rain chances will be a welcome change. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 There is an approximately 25% to 30% chance of thunderstorms developing late today along the FL West Coast. These storms could cause temporary impacts to terminals if they develop and move over or near terminals. With a fairly dry atmosphere, there will be a heightened potential for microbursts with any storms that do form. Over the next couple days, rain chances will begin to increase, leading to a higher potential for impacts at all terminals beginning on Tuesday, and increasing towards the weekend. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored to continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 A few thunderstorms will be possible this evening across nearshore waters especially from Tampa Bay southward. Locally hazardous winds and seas should be expected in the vicinity. Rain chances increase over the next couple days, with scattered to eventually numerous thunderstorms becoming more likely as the weekend approaches. Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain below 15 knots with seas of 2 feet or less as high pressure remains in control. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Today is the final hot and dry day, with rain chances and RH values increasing through the week ahead as a more typical summertime pattern returns. Despite being dry, RH values remain above critical levels, precluding significant fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 96 83 96 82 / 20 20 50 40 FMY 97 79 94 79 / 30 20 50 20 GIF 99 78 99 79 / 20 10 50 20 SRQ 94 79 93 79 / 20 20 40 40 BKV 98 76 96 76 / 20 20 60 30 SPG 94 83 92 81 / 20 20 50 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery