843
FXUS62 KTBW 280548
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Upper-level ridging has continued retrograding from this time
yesterday. In response, the surface high is now over the Western FL
Panhandle and extends into the North Central Gulf and stretches west
out to East Texas. A light NE flow with a SFC-3km average of 5 knots
continues to be dominant, delaying sea breeze formation and favoring
hot and dry weather overall.

The 0Z sounding shows that the atmosphere above approx. 650 mb dries
out considerably. Mid-level water vapor imagery further supports
this with a large area of dry air wrapping around the large ridge
axis from the central CONUS. As pockets of Saharan dust continue to
advect in at the lower levels, this once again favors an overall
hot, dry day.

As has been the theme this weekend, the heat remains the top story.
Many records were broken yesterday. That trend looks to continue
today. The combination of high temperatures and still relatively
humid surface conditions will once again favor heat indices of 106
to 112 across the region, with isolated pockets potentially
climbing even higher. A Heat Advisory remains in effect once again
today for this hot and mostly dry weather.

There could again be some relief for coastal areas late as a few
thunderstorms again develop. Any storms that do form will carry an
elevated risk for strong winds given the dryness of the atmosphere.
The best chances are favored after max heating, though, so the
biggest benefit is more likely to be a slightly reduced overnight
temperature rather than a meaningfully cooler afternoon. Thus,
residents and visitors alike should continue to practice good heat
safety. Limit time spent outdoors when possible, wear long sleeves,
seek shade, and - most importantly - stay hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Tuesday looks to be the last day of above average temperatures
across the region. This is due to an erosion of the continental high
with a longwave trough digging into the Northeast. As the trough
propagates eastward, the subtropical ridge can then build back in,
bringing deeper moisture along with it to usher back in the return
of the more typical daily showers and thunderstorms to carry us
through the weekend.

However, the subtropical ridge will take some time to build back
into the area. Thus the low-level flow is favored to be more WSW.
Depending the strength of this flow, thunderstorm timing could be a
bit earlier in the day as opposed to later. If the flow ends up
being a little stronger, than coastal areas would have the best
chance of seeing a storm from close to sunrise through about midday
before thunderstorms transition inland.

As the weekend approaches, additional upper-level energy in the form
of a digging shortwave appears to arrive in the area. When coupled
with a deep, tropical atmosphere, this favors enhanced rain chances
especially for Sunday and into Monday next week. After the last few
days, some days with better rain chances will be a welcome change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

There is an approximately 25% to 30% chance of thunderstorms
developing late today along the FL West Coast. These storms
could cause temporary impacts to terminals if they develop and
move over or near terminals. With a fairly dry atmosphere, there
will be a heightened potential for microbursts with any storms that
do form. Over the next couple days, rain chances will begin to
increase, leading to a higher potential for impacts at all terminals
beginning on Tuesday, and increasing towards the weekend. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are favored to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

A few thunderstorms will be possible this evening across nearshore
waters especially from Tampa Bay southward. Locally hazardous winds
and seas should be expected in the vicinity. Rain chances increase
over the next couple days, with scattered to eventually numerous
thunderstorms becoming more likely as the weekend approaches.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds remain below 15 knots with seas of 2
feet or less as high pressure remains in control.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Today is the final hot and dry day, with rain chances and RH values
increasing through the week ahead as a more typical summertime
pattern returns. Despite being dry, RH values remain above critical
levels, precluding significant fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  96  83  96  82 /  20  20  50  40
FMY  97  79  94  79 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  99  78  99  79 /  20  10  50  20
SRQ  94  79  93  79 /  20  20  40  40
BKV  98  76  96  76 /  20  20  60  30
SPG  94  83  92  81 /  20  20  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-
     Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery