375
FXUS62 KJAX 261057
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
557 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A shortwave trough will lift across the region today while weakening
and pushing northeastward. The shortwave will move north of the
area tonight. The precip associated with this system is currently
located over the FL panhandle and southern AL and southwest GA.
Given the presentation of the system on radar and the current
guidance opted to include some low-end rain chances of about 20
percent for my west and northwest zones as isentropic ascent
moves through. At the sfc, high pressure is north of the area and
sfc analysis shows an inverted trough off the coast, more so over
the offshore waters or a bit further out. The guidance keeps that
trough over the coastal waters today and expect that some
scattered showers and potential thunderstorm or two will be
located there later today and into tonight. The trough may edge
slightly closer to the coastline late tonight. With the sfc trough
moving closer to the coast, leaned toward slightly higher rain
chance than the NBM was showing for the coastal areas.

Otherwise, highs today will be muted by the cool north-northeast
flow and the abundance of clouds for a good part of the day. Nudged
temps down shown by the NBM guidance. Lows tonight expected to
cool into the 50s most areas with mostly cloudy skies across the
area.

The other forecast challenge is the fog forecast, which we expect
patchy to areas of fog mainly in northeast FL this morning. Some
locally dense fog will be possible toward Gainesville and Ocala/I-75
corridor. Patchy to areas of fog are expected again tonight as
low stratus develops again. The fog may be locally dense in
generally the same area early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday as a trough
begins to lift out of the area, easterly winds will allow for
isolated showers near the coast on Friday. Cloud cover will
gradually thin out during the day, and highs will reach the 70s
for northeast Florida and mid 60s to low 70s across southeast
Georgia. As winds shift more southeasterly on Saturday,
temperatures will warm up further, with all of northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia reaching above 70 degrees. Rain chances will
sit at 20-30% area-wide on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front from the northwest, which will pass through the region on
Sunday. Low temperatures both nights will be mild in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

The cold front will make it`s way through Georgia and northeast Florida
on Sunday, with sufficient moisture and decent instability, PWATs
will be near 1.5 inches for most of the area. Locally heavy
downpours are possible, however with the quick moving system,
storm total rainfall amounts are fairly low, less than 0.5 inches.
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the instability
and dynamics support, with the highest chances being in the
afternoon. The NBM currently is highlighting inland southeast
Georgia for the highest (30-50%) chances of Surface CAPE > 1000
J/kg, and the GFS is showing Bulk Shear near 35 knots, we will
need to monitor the model progression closely for timing and
strong to potentially marginally severe thunderstorm development.

Behind the front, drier air will briefly move in on Monday,
however by Tuesday showers return as another front is forecast to
pass through, prompting low rain chances across southeast Georgia.
Temperatures will be able to stay warm through mid-week with highs
reaching the 70s each day, until a cold front moves through
Tuesday night, leaving New Years Day temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Widespread IFR and occasional LIFR expected this morning. We will
see some improvement for GNV later today to MVFR cigs and possibly
brief VFR cigs, but for the rest of the TAFs there is a chance
IFR to low- end MVFR will stick around during the afternoon hours.
We will see cigs lower again tonight to widespread IFR and then
likely lower into LIFR for most of the TAFs by about 06z. North to
northeast sfc winds today up to 8-14 kt, strongest at SSI. Winds
will likely decrease tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Breezy northerly winds over mainly the north marine zones today at
about 15-20 kt, due to a inverted sfc trough off the southeast U.S.
coast. Latest reading at ~2:40 AM from buoy 41008 showed 21 kt and
seas near 7 ft. The forecast calls for small craft advisory conditions
for the southeast GA waters with winds of about 15-20 kt and seas
upwards of 5-7 ft. Supporting the stronger winds was the HREF
showing winds of at least 20 kt with at least a 60 percent probability
through today over the GA waters. A Small Craft Exercise Caution
(SCEC) headline was placed in for today for northeast FL waters.
Winds and seas will slowly come down later tonight and into
Friday, but remain elevated to support SCEC headlines especially
for the offshore waters. Winds and seas may drop a bit Saturday
but still look to be near SCEC headlines offshore waters. South
winds increase Sunday ahead of a cold front, with the cold frontal
passage is forecast late Sunday/Sunday night. High pressure will
build in early next week behind the front.

Rip Currents: Seas upward of 4-5 ft and strengthened north-
northeast winds will support a high risk of dangerous rip
currents today. Elevated risk, at least in the moderate range,
(and possibly high at times), is expected again Friday through
the weekend due to rough surf and the onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  48  68  60 /  20  10  10  10
SSI  59  54  66  60 /  30  30  30  20
JAX  64  55  72  60 /  10  20  20  10
SGJ  67  58  71  61 /  10  30  30  10
GNV  70  55  76  61 /  10  10  20   0
OCF  74  57  78  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ450-470.

&&

$$