624 FXUS62 KMFL 102219 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 619 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 South Florida remains under the influence of surface and mid-level ridging which will act to maintain southeasterly flow across the area through today and tomorrow. An upper level disturbance (TUTT) remains just south of Cuba which is aiding in the transfer of tropical moisture across the region. PWATs remain between 1.9 to 2.1 inches which is very slightly above average for this time of year. Convection is ongoing across interior South Florida as the east coast sea breeze is in the midst of its daily westward progression. This activity is expected to continue pushing towards the northwest and will simultaneously become more numerous as it does so. 500mb temperatures remain between -7C to -9C which could support an isolated strong cell later this afternoon, although the bulk of thunderstorms should remain the of the `garden variety` in regards to intensity. Despite this, there is still the chance for heavy downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning within the strongest activity, but this is pretty standard for a typical South Florida July afternoon. The pattern remains largely unchanged for Friday with a chance for morning showers and isolated thunderstorms for east coast metro areas. Shower and thunderstorm activity will push inland with the sea breeze and become more robust in intensity and coverage as daytime heating increases. Greatest chance for showers and storms && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 For the upcoming weekend, large scale high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern with a ridge aloft and surface high pressure nearby as well. Ultimately, this will result in a typical summertime pattern continuing across South Florida with convection being mainly driven by sea breeze development. The usual diurnal pattern of convection for this time of year will remain in place as shower and thunderstorm activity starts to develop over the local waters and the east coast during the morning hours before shifting towards the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could still become strong each afternoon mainly over Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide and lift is maximized. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures through the weekend will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Moving into the early to middle portions of next week, the forecast starts to become a little bit more uncertain as the mid level ridge pushes northwestward into the Gulf and expands northward into the Midwest as well as the Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, another mid level and upper level disturbance to the east will begin to push towards the Southeast coast. While the general diurnal pattern of convection will look to remain in place, with rather light steering flow aloft combined with light winds trying to become more southerly at the surface, this may help increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The exact details still need to be ironed out and will depend heavily on the track and evolution of this mid level disturbance as it pushes towards the Southeast coast. Guidance is not in good agreement regarding its strength and evolution at this time. For now, the latest forecast increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame, however, the highest chances each afternoon are kept over the interior and Southwest Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Light and variable flow overnight with increasing southeasterly flow by the late morning hours. Chance for a few thunderstorms beginning Friday morning, although most activity should remain inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A gentle to moderate southeasterly flow will be present across the Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a lighter and more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters through this same time frame. Seas across all of the local waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 80 90 / 40 60 10 50 West Kendall 76 90 77 90 / 40 60 10 50 Opa-Locka 79 92 80 92 / 40 60 10 50 Homestead 79 90 79 90 / 40 50 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 80 89 / 30 70 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 90 81 90 / 30 70 10 50 Pembroke Pines 81 94 82 94 / 40 70 10 50 West Palm Beach 79 90 78 90 / 30 70 10 40 Boca Raton 79 92 79 92 / 30 70 10 50 Naples 76 92 76 92 / 30 80 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto