190 FXUS62 KMFL 162328 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 728 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The dry conditions will continue across South Florida tonight as a large area of high pressure continues to push across the Southeast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 GFS/Euro and ensemble solutions all show good agreement in having a dominant high pressure system descending upon the state in the wake of a frontal passage today. Latest sfc analyses, satellite imagery and model data describe a rather diffuse sfc boundary, with no tangible temperature or moisture gradients associated with its passage. 12Z MFL sounding show PWATs below 1 inch, along with a deep and robustly dry layer from 850mb and above. Pressure gradients will increase behind the FROPA, and by the afternoon hours, winds veer ENE and becoming gusty as the front clears the peninsula and moves into the Florida Keys. Latest GEFS MSLP analyses show a sprawling 1026mb high pressure cell establishing over the region in the wake of the FROPA, with strong subsidence keeping rain out of the short term forecast. With no airmass modification in the wake of the FROPA, expect the dry and warm conditions to continue through the short term. Expect afternoon highs in the lower 80s near the coasts, and in the mid- upper 80s over interior areas of South Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The synoptic setup analyzed by the latest guidance and ensembles for most of the extended (through Monday) will be characterized by a trough in the mountain west becoming enhanced under meridional flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere before it propagates towards the Great Lakes, which in return will amplify a strong ridge over the southeast US through this weekend. During this time frame extending from the end of this week through early next week, surface high pressure will essentially be parked over the western Atlantic while the ridge advects eastward and presides over the Florida Peninsula. Under this setup, the strong surface high in the western Atlantic will create a moderate easterly wind flow as the pressure gradient strengthens, plus it will keep dry and stable conditions persisting. Guidance hints at the ridge beginning to break down early next week between Monday and Tuesday, but even with that occurring, the air mass is still projected to be too dry for precipitation. Therefore, expect dry and stable conditions to continue through early next week with breezy easterly wind flow for most of it. As the ridge weakens early next week, modest moisture increases will allow for slight chances for rain to return to the forecast, but overall this is highly uncertain given it is at the tail end of the forecast period. With the strengthening ridge and surface high pressure, a warming trend is expected through the weekend. Daily high temperatures are projected to reach the mid to upper 80s each day for most areas. Exceptions to this will be the immediate east coast and west coast areas where temperatures are forecast in the low 80s and upper 80s to near 90 respectively under the easterly flow setup. Locations can generally expect a daily high increase of 1-2 degrees each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will gradually become light and variable across all terminals later this evening into the overnight hours. These winds will increase out of the east northeast after 14Z Thursday and will generally range between 10 to 15 kts through Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Winds gradually shift to a northerly direction today, along with increasing speeds to the 10-15 knot range by this evening behind a frontal passage. The winds should continue to shift to the northeast and become breezy/gusty for the end of the work week and into the weekend. This is likely to result in hazardous boating conditions over the Atlantic waters for the Friday and Saturday timeframe. The seas will be 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters today, then increasing to 3 to 5 feet over the Atlantic && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Generally dry air expected to remain over the region today and on Thursday, allowing for the relative humidities to fall into the low 30s over interior-western areas of SoFlo by Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds are not expected to reach criteria, however, the situation will be closely monitored during that time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 70 83 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 66 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 81 70 80 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 69 82 70 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 81 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 64 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC