503
FXUS62 KMFL 130643
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Cold front is moving across South FL this morning, with surface high
pressure over the eastern US building into the region. ACARS
soundings from PBI and MIA show just enough moisture below 850 MB to
squeak out some occasional shallow showers off the E/NE breeze,
especially around the lake region and in Palm Beach county. Overall,
it`ll be a dry day across much of South FL, albeit breezy with a
tightening pressure gradient across the area. Wind gusts of 20-30
mph are expected from mid morning through late this evening. With
the drier air filtering into the area, expect dewpoints to slowly
fall into the upper 60s by late in the day. High temps today will be
in the low to mid 80s across the east coast metro and around the
lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL.

Outside of an isolated coastal shower overnight, mainly dry and
comfortable tonight with lows in the upper 60s inland and SW FL, to
lower 70s over the east coast metro. Mostly dry conditions expected
on Thursday and less breezy as the pressure gradient slackens.
Dewpoints in the low to middle 60s will make it a very pleasant day.
Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

As the mid-level trough traverses the eastern CONUS at the end of
this week, it will continue to deepen as it enters the offshore Mid-
Atlantic waters. As this occurs, an associated cold front will
progress southwards and make its away through the Florida Peninsula
between Friday night and Saturday morning. This frontal boundary
will provide a source of lift as it advects south, although the
local air mass will be fairly dry at that point. Therefore,
conditions should stay predominantly dry as the front moves through,
but have left in a slight chance for a few showers Friday night and
Saturday morning as there should be just enough low level moisture
to support isolated showers with lift provided by the front.

After the front passes by Saturday morning, mid-level ridging will
rebuild over the SE CONUS and drier air will settle into South
Florida. Dew points will fall into the low 60s and even upper 50s in
some spots during this time frame. Thus, dry weather will be
observed for the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and then fall into the low
80s as the front passes for the weekend. Overnight lows will drop
into the 60s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period. Isolated showers
possible this morning as a frontal boundary crosses the area. E/NE
winds around 10 kts increasing to around 15 kts with gusts of
20-25 kts after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Hazardous marine conditions expected today and tonight in the wake
of a frontal passage. NE winds increase to 20-25 kts this morning
over the Atlantic waters, and this afternoon into this evening for
Biscayne Bay, Lake Okeechobee, and the Gulf waters. Seas will build
to 5 to 9 ft in the Atlantic and 2 to 5 ft in the Gulf.
Conditions will gradually improve overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 119 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Moderate northeasterly flow will result in a high risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches through at least Thursday.
Improving conditions are expected on Friday, however an elevated
risk will remain for the Palm Beaches.

King tides will result in minor coastal flooding today along the
Atlantic coast, with moderate flooding possible beginning Thursday
and lasting through at least Saturday during periods of high tide.
Minor coastal flooding is possible beginning Thursday along the
Collier and Mainland Monroe coasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  73  83  71 /  20  20  10   0
West Kendall     84  71  84  66 /  10  20  10   0
Opa-Locka        84  72  83  69 /  20  20  10   0
Homestead        84  73  83  69 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  81  71 /  20  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  82  74  82  71 /  20  20  10   0
Pembroke Pines   85  72  85  70 /  20  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  83  73  82  69 /  20  20  10   0
Boca Raton       84  73  83  70 /  20  20  10   0
Naples           87  69  85  70 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF