190
FXUS62 KMFL 162328
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
728 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The dry conditions will continue across South Florida tonight as
a large area of high pressure continues to push across the
Southeast. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the
upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the
upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

GFS/Euro and ensemble solutions all show good agreement in having a
dominant high pressure system descending upon the state in the wake
of a frontal passage today. Latest sfc analyses, satellite imagery
and model data describe a rather diffuse sfc boundary, with no
tangible temperature or moisture gradients associated with its
passage. 12Z MFL sounding show PWATs below 1 inch, along with a
deep and robustly dry layer from 850mb and above. Pressure
gradients will increase behind the FROPA, and by the afternoon
hours, winds veer ENE and becoming gusty as the front clears the
peninsula and moves into the Florida Keys. Latest GEFS MSLP
analyses show a sprawling 1026mb high pressure cell establishing
over the region in the wake of the FROPA, with strong subsidence
keeping rain out of the short term forecast.

With no airmass modification in the wake of the FROPA, expect the
dry and warm conditions to continue through the short term. Expect
afternoon highs in the lower 80s near the coasts, and in the mid-
upper 80s over interior areas of South Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The synoptic setup analyzed by the latest guidance and ensembles for
most of the extended (through Monday) will be characterized by a
trough in the mountain west becoming enhanced under meridional flow
in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere before it propagates
towards the Great Lakes, which in return will amplify a strong ridge
over the southeast US through this weekend. During this time frame
extending from the end of this week through early next week, surface
high pressure will essentially be parked over the western Atlantic
while the ridge advects eastward and presides over the Florida
Peninsula. Under this setup, the strong surface high in the western
Atlantic will create a moderate easterly wind flow as the pressure
gradient strengthens, plus it will keep dry and stable conditions
persisting. Guidance hints at the ridge beginning to break down
early next week between Monday and Tuesday, but even with that
occurring, the air mass is still projected to be too dry for
precipitation. Therefore, expect dry and stable conditions to
continue through early next week with breezy easterly wind flow for
most of it. As the ridge weakens early next week, modest moisture
increases will allow for slight chances for rain to return to the
forecast, but overall this is highly uncertain given it is at the
tail end of the forecast period.

With the strengthening ridge and surface high pressure, a warming
trend is expected through the weekend. Daily high temperatures are
projected to reach the mid to upper 80s each day for most areas.
Exceptions to this will be the immediate east coast and west coast
areas where temperatures are forecast in the low 80s and upper 80s
to near 90 respectively under the easterly flow setup. Locations can
generally expect a daily high increase of 1-2 degrees each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds
will gradually become light and variable across all terminals
later this evening into the overnight hours. These winds will
increase out of the east northeast after 14Z Thursday and will
generally range between 10 to 15 kts through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Winds gradually shift to a northerly direction today, along with
increasing speeds to the 10-15 knot range by this evening behind a
frontal passage. The winds should continue to shift to the northeast
and become breezy/gusty for the end of the work week and into the
weekend. This is likely to result in hazardous boating conditions
over the Atlantic waters for the Friday and Saturday timeframe.

The seas will be 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf
waters today, then increasing to 3 to 5 feet over the Atlantic

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Generally dry air expected to remain over the region today and on
Thursday, allowing for the relative humidities to fall into the low
30s over interior-western areas of SoFlo by Thursday afternoon. Wind
speeds are not expected to reach criteria, however, the situation
will be closely monitored during that time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  83  70  82 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     66  84  67  83 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        68  83  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        68  82  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  69  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  69  82  70  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   69  83  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  67  81  68  81 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       68  82  70  82 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           64  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC