478
FXUS62 KJAX 231803
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
103 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

With a persistent coastal trough and coastal low just offshore
and the system hanging in overnight will see low ceilings and a
few showers for the coastal areas overnight. Clods may briefly
break up over interior north Florida this afternoon before the
cloud deck reestablishes itself overnight. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except along
the immediate beaches were we will bottom out near 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1256 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Dry weather conditions on Tuesday as high pressure conditions and
a cool mostly westerly flow remains in place through the day.
Flow will shift to become more out of the southwest by Wednesday
as high pressure ridging moves off to the northeast, resulting in
slightly warmer temperatures and increased chances for
precipitation for areas along the coast and east of the I-75
corridor. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in
the 60s for southeast Georgia and most of northeast Florida, with
temps rising into the lower 70s over north central Florida.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 40s and 50s
through midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Chances for showers will increase for the later part of the week
and into the weekend as high pressure ridging situated to the
northeast results in a more moist easterly-southeasterly flow over
the region with a potential inverted surface trough off the coast
for Thursday and into Friday. A cold front will press in from out
of the northwest and affecting our area ahead of it by the end of
the weekend, with a more southerly flow developing along with an
increased likelihood for showers to develop. Slightly above
average temperatures are expected for the end of the week and
through the weekend with daily max temps reaching into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

MVFR ceilings will impact all the TAF sites within the next few
hours, with gusty northeasterly winds picking up this morning as
well. Lower ceilings (IFR) and isolated showers will move onshore
this afternoon for the coastal sites, with ceilings near 400-500
feet moving in later this evening around 05Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

A coastal low will remain just offshore this evening and begin to
slowly lift out to the northeast after midnight. High pressure
will build in to the west on Tuesday with northerly flow over the
waters. The flow will become more onshore on Wednesday as the
ridge moves to our north causing a return of showers over the
coastal waters. By Thursday morning yet another in a series of
coastal troughs/lows will have developed over the coastal waters
with bands of rain and increasing winds and seas. The onshore flow
will continue on Friday with Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions over the offshore waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  62  37  63 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  44  61  47  62 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  43  64  45  66 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  49  64  51  68 /  10   0   0  10
GNV  44  66  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  70  49  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ450-452-
     472.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470.

&&

$$