874 FXUS62 KTBW 141210 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 710 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 A cold front is currently located across the central Florida peninsula, and will move southeast across the remainder of the forecast area through the early morning hours. A brief light shower may occur ahead of the front, primarily over southwest Florida. High pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in the wake of the front today with drier cooler air advecting across the region. Skies will become partly cloudy north and central, but considerable cloudiness will likely persist over the southern forecast area. Mid/upper level moisture will overrun the cooler air tonight and Wednesday which will cause increasing cloudiness across west central and southwest Florida. Even given the increased cloud cover, patchy frost will be possible tonight/early Wednesday morning over the extreme northern forecast area. Combination of the increasing moisture and a cold front associated with a weak U/L trough expected to move across the southeast U.S. and Florida on Thursday and Thursday night will create a slight chance of a shower, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front late Thursday night and Friday with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy. The area of high pressure will shift east of the region on Friday with return south to southeast flow developing which will increase temps and low level moisture across the forecast area. Another cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Saturday night and Sunday with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over the northern forecast area. U/L support will likely be lifting away from the area as the front moves across the region...with the best chance for rain north and the least chance for rain south. High pressure will move back over the region in the wake of the front early next week with drier cooler air advecting back across west central and southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 IFR CIGS across the area this morning. However there is a sharp line of clearing to the north of TPA that is moving south. Once this line get to a terminal we will some quick improvements. This will happen mainly in the late morning and early afternoon. After the clearing we can expect VFR conditions for the rest of the period with winds out of the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 SCA conditions expected over the outer northern and central waters through early this afternoon. Winds will subside a bit late today and tonight...but SCEC conditions will persist over portions of the waters tonight. Winds and seas will weaken below SCEC levels Wednesday, and are expected to remain below cautionary levels through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will build ahead of a cold over the weekend with SCA conditions possibly developing across portions of the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will drop to near critical values this afternoon over the northern forecast area. On Wednesday afternoon, northern and interior areas may approach critical values. However, winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 47 66 49 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 73 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 67 46 67 47 / 0 0 0 10 SRQ 69 49 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 65 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 65 50 65 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming