874
FXUS62 KTBW 141210
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
710 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
A cold front is currently located across the central Florida
peninsula, and will move southeast across the remainder of the
forecast area through the early morning hours. A brief light
shower may occur ahead of the front, primarily over southwest
Florida. High pressure will build over the Florida peninsula in
the wake of the front today with drier cooler air advecting across
the region. Skies will become partly cloudy north and central,
but considerable cloudiness will likely persist over the southern
forecast area.

Mid/upper level moisture will overrun the cooler air tonight and
Wednesday which will cause increasing cloudiness across west
central and southwest Florida. Even given the increased cloud
cover, patchy frost will be possible tonight/early Wednesday
morning over the extreme northern forecast area.

Combination of the increasing moisture and a cold front associated
with a weak U/L trough expected to move across the southeast U.S.
and Florida on Thursday and Thursday night will create a slight
chance of a shower, mainly across the southern half of the
forecast area. High pressure will build back over the forecast
area in the wake of the front late Thursday night and Friday with
skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy.

The area of high pressure will shift east of the region on Friday
with return south to southeast flow developing which will
increase temps and low level moisture across the forecast area.
Another cold front will push across west central and southwest
Florida Saturday night and Sunday with showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms over the northern forecast area. U/L support will
likely be lifting away from the area as the front moves across
the region...with the best chance for rain north and the least
chance for rain south.

High pressure will move back over the region in the wake of the
front early next week with drier cooler air advecting back across
west central and southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

IFR CIGS across the area this morning. However there is a sharp
line of clearing to the north of TPA that is moving south. Once
this line get to a terminal we will some quick improvements. This
will happen mainly in the late morning and early afternoon. After
the clearing we can expect VFR conditions for the rest of the
period with winds out of the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
SCA conditions expected over the outer northern and central waters
through early this afternoon. Winds will subside a bit late today
and tonight...but SCEC conditions will persist over portions of
the waters tonight. Winds and seas will weaken below SCEC levels
Wednesday, and are expected to remain below cautionary levels
through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will build ahead
of a cold over the weekend with SCA conditions possibly
developing across portions of the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
Minimum relative humidity values will drop to near critical values
this afternoon over the northern forecast area. On Wednesday
afternoon, northern and interior areas may approach critical
values. However, winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  47  66  49 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  73  52  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  67  46  67  47 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  69  49  70  51 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  65  39  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  65  50  65  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming