750
FXUS62 KTBW 080047
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
847 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
With the ridge located over the southern Gulf and Caribbean, the
southwesterly flow regime will push the remaining and dissipating,
scattered, inland storms to the east coast. Tomorrow, conditions
are similarly anticipated; storms will develop along the west
coast in the late morning and early afternoon and migrate eastward
as the day progresses. This flow will become more neutral as the
ridge meanders northward, resulting in scattered to numerous
showers more centrally concentrated and stagnant within the state.
With that in mind, rain accumulation has more localized
potential. While POPs will broadly remain moderate, models
indicate that they will be lower than previously. As for daytime
temperatures, they will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Presence of a southwesterly flow has migrated the showers inland
for this evening. For Tomorrow, this seabreeze regime has a VCTS
input in the later afternoon for inland LAL and our airports in
the southern forecast area. Winds will remain from a broadly southwesterly
direction at or below 10 kts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly
flow. This will result in onshore flow continuing with morning
showers along the coast that will move inland in the afternoon and
eventually head to the east coast in the evening. This will continue
for our Tuesday.

By Wednesday the ridge looks to lift slightly north and stall
overhead. This will give us a neutral flow regime. In this regime
we typically see the highest concentration of storms along the
west coast in the late afternoon and evening. The main hazard with
this regime is the light flow will cause storms to be very slow
moving which could result in some localized flooding each day.
This pattern looks to stay in place at least through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Ridging to our south will continue our SW flow through
Tuesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will also continue
to see our overnight and early morning shower activity over the
water. Ridging will shift north on Wednesday and stall overnight.
This will give us a light and variable flow with winds around 5
knots through the rest of the week. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  91 /  10  30  20  60
FMY  77  93  76  93 /  10  50  30  60
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  10  50  20  60
SRQ  78  90  76  91 /  10  30  20  50
BKV  73  92  73  92 /  10  40  20  60
SPG  80  90  78  89 /  10  30  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Davis/Ulevicius
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery