750 FXUS62 KTBW 080047 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 847 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... With the ridge located over the southern Gulf and Caribbean, the southwesterly flow regime will push the remaining and dissipating, scattered, inland storms to the east coast. Tomorrow, conditions are similarly anticipated; storms will develop along the west coast in the late morning and early afternoon and migrate eastward as the day progresses. This flow will become more neutral as the ridge meanders northward, resulting in scattered to numerous showers more centrally concentrated and stagnant within the state. With that in mind, rain accumulation has more localized potential. While POPs will broadly remain moderate, models indicate that they will be lower than previously. As for daytime temperatures, they will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Presence of a southwesterly flow has migrated the showers inland for this evening. For Tomorrow, this seabreeze regime has a VCTS input in the later afternoon for inland LAL and our airports in the southern forecast area. Winds will remain from a broadly southwesterly direction at or below 10 kts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly flow. This will result in onshore flow continuing with morning showers along the coast that will move inland in the afternoon and eventually head to the east coast in the evening. This will continue for our Tuesday. By Wednesday the ridge looks to lift slightly north and stall overhead. This will give us a neutral flow regime. In this regime we typically see the highest concentration of storms along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening. The main hazard with this regime is the light flow will cause storms to be very slow moving which could result in some localized flooding each day. This pattern looks to stay in place at least through the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Ridging to our south will continue our SW flow through Tuesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will also continue to see our overnight and early morning shower activity over the water. Ridging will shift north on Wednesday and stall overnight. This will give us a light and variable flow with winds around 5 knots through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 20 60 FMY 77 93 76 93 / 10 50 30 60 GIF 76 93 76 93 / 10 50 20 60 SRQ 78 90 76 91 / 10 30 20 50 BKV 73 92 73 92 / 10 40 20 60 SPG 80 90 78 89 / 10 30 20 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Davis/Ulevicius DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery