837
FXUS62 KMLB 251853
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
- A strong high pressure ridge will persist into next week,
lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures and heat
indices.
- Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into
early next week.
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and
Orange counties on Saturday from 11am-7pm.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers have developed near
I-4 early this afternoon. Activity is forecast to lift northwest
through the remainder of the day with peak coverage (~40%) occurring
across and near Lake county as the west coast sea breeze approaches.
Dry air building above 700mb has kept activity shallow with only
isolated lightning strikes observed so far today. Lingering showers
will be possible around Lake county through 10pm with dry conditions
forecast overnight. Muggy and mild conditions hold tonight with lows
mostly in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday-Monday... Strong mid-level high pressure continues to
build over the southeast U.S. Associated subsidence and
compressional warming will promote a period of dangerous heat
locally, and this heat wave looks to be the most significant so
far this summer. High temperatures warm a few degrees each day,
widely ranging the mid to upper 90s across the north interior with
low to mid 90s elsewhere. Monday remains forecast as the hottest
day though the period with highs forecast just below 100F near,
north, and west of I-4. Above normal temperatures combined with
humidity will produce peak heat index values up to 110F across the
I-4 urban corridor this weekend, ranging 105-109F further south.
An increase in moisture early next week will further produce heat
index values near 112F north and west of I-4 on Monday. While the
most significant heat impacts will occur during the afternoon,
expect only gradual relief through the evening with temperatures
slow to fall through the 80s, especially near urban centers. Due
to prolonged periods of daily heat, a Major to Extreme HeatRisk is
forecast near and north of I-4, particularly on Monday. Low
temperatures range the mid to upper 70s across the north with low
to mid 70s across the south.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and Orange
counties from 11am-7pm Saturday. Additional Heat Advisories will
likely be needed for portions of east central Florida late this
weekend and into early next week with near Extreme Heat conditions
possible. Residents and visitors are encouraged to follow the
forecast and plan to take the proper heat safety actions to prevent
heat stress and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed.
A drier airmass will keep rain chances low with a 10% chance along
the coast each day and a 20-30% chance west of I-95. Winds often
become light and variable through the weekend in vicinity of surface
ridging. A weak sea breeze will shift winds onshore around 5-10 mph.
Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level shortwave digs across the western
Atlantic, nudging high pressure westward. Moisture begins to rebuild
as a weak surface trough sinks across the southeast U.S. and
adjacent Atlantic waters. However, surface ridging becomes
reinforced locally as a nose of high pressure extends across south
Florida. Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with temperatures and
heat index values finally beginning to decline mid next week.
Highs on Tuesday climb again into the mid to upper 90s across the
interior, ranging the low to mid 90s closer to the coast, and the
increased moisture should push Heat Index values toward Heat
Advisory criteria for at least northern portions of east central
Florida. While still hot, temperatures noticeably decrease
Wednesday and Thursday with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
Increasing rain chances (40-60%) will bring some relief from the
heat, particularly from Wednesday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
High pressure centered over the southwest Atlc will push westward
across the FL peninsula and into the Gulf this weekend,
maintaining favorable boating conditions. SE winds 10 knots today
should become light and variable this weekend with a weak sea
breeze near the coast. A weak, reinforcing ridge axis will nose
westward across south Florida early next week. Seas 2-3 ft today,
diminishing to 1-2 ft through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
VFR continues for most sites, outside of brief VCTS/SHRA impacts
at SFB/MCO/ISM/LEE. Currently, no VC is included at DAB but may
need to be introduced for a brief time this afternoon. ESE winds
10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt, especially at the coast.
Then, calmer overnight with clearer conditions. Variable winds
become easterly after 15z Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 92 76 93 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 75 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 20
MLB 76 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 76 95 78 96 / 30 20 0 20
SFB 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 0 20
ORL 76 97 78 97 / 10 10 0 20
FPR 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ041-044>046-
141-144.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Schaper