984
FXUS62 KMLB 110024
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
824 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- A cold front will move across east central Florida Friday night
  but rain chances are low (20% or less) with dry conditions
  forecast much of next week.

- Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast
  Friday and Saturday with gusty winds and low humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Sea breeze collision occurring along the Lake/Sumter county line
at 8 pm. Isolated showers will occur along this convergent zone
and will drift eastward into the late evening, possibly into west
Orange county before dissipating. Have a small (20%) rain chance
to account for this but thunder is not forecast. Winds will become
light and variable by midnight as the sea breeze circulation
diminishes. No other changes to current forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows isolated to widely
scattered showers mainly over eastern St. Lucie and Martin
counties, in addition to the adjacent Atlantic waters. GOES-16
satellite imagery shows partly cloudy to partly sunny skies over
east central Florida. High pressure (1024mb) is situated over the
Gulf of America. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low
80s with dew points in the upper 50s to 60s. Winds are generally
from the east-northeast at 5-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph.
Isolated showers over the Treasure Coast are forecast to diminish
into the late afternoon. The potential exists for an isolated
shower (20%) over Lake, NW Osceola, and W Orange counties into
this evening (7pm-11pm) as the west coast sea breeze converges
with east-northeast winds. Dry weather is forecast overnight with
low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s under mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies.

Mostly dry weather is forecast through the afternoon on Friday
before a cold front is expected to move east-southeast over east
central Florida which is expected to extend from low pressure
(1008mb) over the Carolinas, in addition to the adjacent Atlantic
waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves east-southeast
over central Florida before moving east-southeast over the
Treasure Coast Saturday morning. Isolated showers and lightning
storms are forecast to develop into Friday evening (after 4pm)
over the coastal counties as west-southwest flow converges with
the east coast sea breeze with PWAT values in the 0.9"-1.25"
range. Isolated showers and lightning storms (20%) are also
forecast to develop along and ahead of the cold front mainly from
Cape Canaveral northward after 5PM and into Saturday morning
before the front weakens to the south of Cape Canaveral. A limited
potential for lightning exists Friday evening into Saturday
morning with MUCAPE between 500-1,200 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
between 40-60kts. The main hazards will be occasional lightning
strikes and wind gusts up to 40mph. West-southwest winds at
10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph Afternoon highs in the low to mid
80s are expected.

The weekend... Dry weather is forecast this weekend as high
pressure (1020mb) builds over the southeastern US and PWATs
decrease into the 0.25"-0.75" range. Northwest winds at 10-15mph
with gusts to 20mph on Saturday are forecast to weaken and veer
generally northeast into Sunday at 5-10mph. Cooler temperatures
are expected with highs in the 70s Saturday and the mid 70s to low
80s on Sunday. Lows in the mid 50s to low 60s are forecast
Saturday morning with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday... High pressure (1020mb) is forecast to build
over the state of Florida on Monday before a cold front is
expected to move east-southeast over central Florida Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning. Dry weather is expected with PWAT
values in the 0.25-0.80" range through Tuesday. East-southeast
winds at 6-12mph are forecast into the afternoon east of the
Orlando metro with west-southwest winds to the west before west-
southwest flow increase into Tuesday at 10-15mph. Above normal
temperatures are expected with highs 80s before cooler air on
Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s behind the
aforementioned cold front. Lows in the 50s are expected Monday
with the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Currently-Friday... Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are
expected to improve into Friday morning before becoming poor to
hazardous into Friday afternoon as a cold front moves east-
southeast over the waters Friday night. Isolated to scattered
offshore moving showers (20-60%) and lightning storms are forecast
after 4pm and into Saturday morning. The main hazards will be
occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 40mph. Light
winds at 5-10kts are expected to increase from the south-southeast
into the afternoon at 10-20kts. Seas to 7-10ft (except for
nearshore Volusia county where seas to 4-6ft are forecast) are
expected to gradually decrease into Friday at 2-4ft nearshore and
4-6ft over the Gulf Stream.

Saturday-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions on
saturday are expected to improve into Sunday. Isolated to widely
scattered (20-30%) offshore moving showers are forecast offshore
(20-60nm) Saturday into Sunday morning. North-northwest winds at
10-20kts are expected to decrease into Sunday from the east-
northeast at 5-10kts and from the south-southeast on Monday. Seas
to 4-6ft over the Gulf Stream and 2-4ft nearshore are expected to
decrease into Sunday at 2-4ft with up to 5ft over the Gulf
Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

VFR conditions forecast through the TAF period. East winds this
evening will become light and variable overnight. On Fri, WSW
winds will increase 10-15 knots gusting around 20 knots aft 14Z
across northern terminals. Offshore flow not as strong across
southern terminals so a SE wind shift is forecast to develop VRB-
SUA by 18Z behind a sea breeze. A similar wind shift may affect
MLB later in the afternoon but confidence is lower.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
to develop on Friday and continue through the weekend and into the
middle of next week as drier air behind a reinforcing cold front
settles across east central Florida. Minimum RH values are
forecast to fall to 35 percent and lower across the interior most
afternoons. Winds reach 10 to 15 mph and gusty Friday and
Saturday, then decreasing below 10 mph through the remainder of
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rain chances also
fall below 10 percent into the weekend which will allow for the
drying of fuels locally. Based on current forecasted conditions,
Red Flag criteria could be met on Friday and Saturday, but it is
too early to make any definitive decisions on whether to issue
products.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  83  57  75 /  10  20  20  10
MCO  61  85  58  77 /  10  10  20   0
MLB  62  84  58  78 /  10  20  20   0
VRB  61  84  58  78 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  59  83  57  76 /  20  20  20   0
SFB  61  85  58  77 /  10  20  20   0
ORL  62  85  60  77 /  10  10  20   0
FPR  61  84  57  78 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly