160
FXUS62 KMLB 141755
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1255 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

- Dangerous surf and poor to hazardous boating conditions
  continue today. Residents and visitors are advised to stay out
  of the ocean due to a high risk of rip currents.

- Minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding will be possible
  through late week and into the weekend around the times of high
  tide, with greatest impacts during Saturday morning`s high
  tide.

- Temperatures remain warmer than normal today, with cooler
  temperatures forecast Friday into Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

No updates needed to the forecast this morning, as things remain
on track. Southeast winds today will veer southerly into this
evening, as a weak cold front approaches the local area. Mostly
dry through the afternoon, though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled
out over the local Atlantic waters. A final above normal day
today, with highs in the lower to mid-80s.

Tonight, the weak front will pass through the area, bringing a
slight chance for showers to areas north of Orlando late tonight
into early Friday morning. Behind the front, northerly winds will
increase, becoming breezy, especially along the coast. Overnight
lows will be slow to respond to the front, remaining in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Today-Tonight...Elongated area of high pressure along the eastern
U.S. coast will will shift offshore through today, allowing low
level onshore flow to weaken and veer to the S/SE. Winds speeds will
be lower today, around 5 to 10 mph across inland areas and up to 10
to 15 mph along the coast. Some isolated onshore moving sprinkles
may continue through early this morning, but as winds continue to
weaken and veer, this activity should diminish as well. Dry
conditions are largely forecast, with above normal highs in the
low 80s along the coast to low to mid 80s across the interior.

A cold front will approach central FL this evening and begin to move
into the area overnight. A broken band of showers may be ongoing
ahead of this boundary as it moves into north Florida. This shower
activity should weaken as the front presses southward, but isolated
light to moderate showers may be able to move into Lake and Volusia
counties southward to Sanford/Orlando area after midnight. Have
therefore added low end rain chances, around 20 percent for northern
portions of east central FL tonight. Lows will fall into the 60s
overnight.

Friday-Sunday...Cold front will continue southward through the area
Friday, clearing south of Lake Okeechobee by late afternoon. There
may be a few lingering showers with this front as it moves through
on Friday, but otherwise mostly dry conditions are expected. Winds
will become northerly and gusty along the coast, up to 20 to 25 mph
behind the front as it progresses southward. It will be noticeably
cooler into Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s across
northern portions of east central Florida, but max temps look to
still reach the low 80s farther south of Orlando. It will be much
cooler into Friday night, yet min temps will only drop to values
that are more normal for this time of year. Lows will range from the
mid to upper 50s across the interior, and remaining in the 60s along
the immediate coast as northerly winds remain elevated.

Into the weekend, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
gradually build southeast and across the area, as a ridge aloft over
the Gulf shifts eastward and over Florida. This will lead to dry
conditions Saturday and Sunday, with a gradual warming trend
forecast. Winds will remain out of the N/NE on Saturday, and then
veer to the E/NE on Sunday with speeds up to around 10 mph each
afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday and
then in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Sunday. Lows will also
slowly rise through the weekend, in the upper 50s to 60s on Saturday
night and then 60s across much of the area into Sunday night.

High astronomical tides will continue late week through the
weekend, which will continue mostly minor coastal flooding impacts
around the times of high tide. Coastal flooding potential will
peak with the Saturday morning`s high tide cycle, around 7 to 8 AM
that morning due to building seas and elevated N/NE flow. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued this morning and continues
through Saturday evening, but this will likely need to be
extended through Sunday as higher astronomical tides continue.

Monday-Wednesday...Latest forecast for what is currently Tropical
Depression Nineteen has the system gradually strengthening into a
Tropical Storm (next name on the list is Sara) before it makes
landfall and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula Monday. Ridge aloft
across Florida will gradually shift east early next week, allowing
this system to lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico into
Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Latest 00Z model runs show a weaker system emerging into the Gulf,
as they show more land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula.
However, there remains some uncertainty on exact track, and how much
land interaction will occur, which could lead to overall intensity
differences after it emerges into the Gulf. It is still too early
to say what impacts, if any, may result across east central
Florida from this system toward the middle of next week. Residents
and visitors across the area should continue to closely monitor
the forecast for updates, and as a reminder, hurricane season
continues through November 30th!

Through at least early in the week, high pressure across the area
will gradually shift eastward, with onshore winds prevailing.
Temperatures will continue a warming trend, with highs in the low
80s on Monday, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Mostly
dry conditions should largely continue, but may begin to see a few
onshore moving showers into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Today-Tonight...Winds will decrease to 10-15 knots as they veer to
the southeast today, but seas will be slower to subside. This will
continue poor to hazardous boating conditions today. Small Craft
Advisory now remains in effect for the entire waters through 10 AM
and then persists just for the offshore waters through 4 PM as 7
foot seas gradually diminish. A cold front will approach and begin
to move into the Volusia County waters late tonight. Winds will be
out of the S/SE ahead of this front, around 10-15 knots, with seas
still up to 6 feet offshore.

Friday-Monday...Cold front will push southward across the waters on
Friday, with winds increasing out of the north behind this boundary.
Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots on Friday, with speeds
gradually decreasing to 10-15 knots late Friday night into Saturday
out of the N/NE. Seas will build behind the front from late week
into early weekend, with wave heights increasing up to 7-9 feet.
This will lead to another round of hazardous boating conditions
across the waters from late Friday morning through at least
Saturday.

Seas will gradually subside through late weekend into early next
week, with winds veering onshore and remaining around 10-15 knots as
high pressure builds down across the area. However, boating
conditions look to remain poor to potentially hazardous into Sunday,
with seas still up to 5-7 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some guidance is wanting to
suggest MVFR CIGs as the front pushes through the local area.
However, confidence is not high this will occur, so have kept VFR
conditions. East winds this afternoon around 10 KT across the
interior and 10-15KT along the coast with gusts up to 20 KT. Winds
will decrease into this evening, becoming light and variable
overnight before veering WNW and increasing to around 10 KT by
Friday morning. Have included VCSH for LEE-DAB starting at 08Z,
and MCO-SFB starting at 12Z along and ahead of the front. VCSH
ends late morning and into early afternoon behind the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  75  61  76 /  20  10   0   0
MCO  68  78  59  78 /  20  20   0   0
MLB  67  79  63  78 /  10  20   0   0
VRB  67  81  64  79 /  10  20   0   0
LEE  66  77  55  78 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  66  77  58  78 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  68  79  59  80 /  20  10   0   0
FPR  67  80  63  79 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson