602 FXUS62 KMLB 061026 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 626 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - An active weather pattern persists across east central Florida today, with storm threats including lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy downpours. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through the work week as a result of a persistent moist airmass across the peninsula. - As temperatures warm back to the lower 90s, tropical humidity will make for oppressive peak heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees most afternoons. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Today-Tonight...Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast to move onshore this morning along the South Carolina coast, continuing northward through the day as it weakens. This will allow the Atlantic ridge axis to gradually lift north through the Keys and towards south Florida, resulting in prevailing southwesterly flow across east central Florida from the surface through the mid-levels. While the east coast sea breeze may attempt to develop this afternoon, progression inland will be limited, ultimately resulting in a sea breeze collision that favors the eastern portions of the peninsula. Shower and storm coverage increases late this afternoon, with 70 percent PoPs focused across the I-4 corridor and areas northward. The Treasure Coast and areas near Lake Okeechobee may only see isolated to scattered coverage, so have maintained a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain and storms. Modest MUCAPE and low-level lapse rates will help support storm development across the area, with frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes likely with any development. Additionally, PWATs near 2 inches and even greater will continue to support the threat of heavy downpours and localized flooding in well-saturated areas from previous days of rainfall as well as low-lying and urban areas with poor drainage. Greater mid-level flow will help support a slightly higher wind threat today, with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible in the strongest storms. Activity is generally forecast to move offshore into the late evening and overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions anticipated through the overnight hours. As the holiday weekend comes to a close today, heat continues to be a concern for sensitive groups and those spending extended periods of time outdoors. While temperatures remain near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s, peak heat indices are still forecast to reach 100 to 105F due to greater humidity. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, be sure to remain well hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building. Muggy conditions persist into the overnight hours, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Monday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge axis is forecast to continue its slow drift northward across the Florida peninsula through the start of the work week, with the Atlantic high gradually building as Chantal continues northward and diminishes into Monday. Winds remain south to southwesterly, resulting in a pinned east coast sea breeze and a greater chance for the sea breeze collision across the eastern portion of the peninsula. By Tuesday, the ridge axis will lift a bit farther north across central Florida, with winds remaining lighter. There will be a greater chance for a more central sea breeze collision. Have maintained a 50 to 65 percent chance of rain both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, with up to a 60 percent chance of storm development. Storms will continue to be capable of lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours, with activity diminishing into the overnight hours. Highs remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday...The surface ridge axis is forecast to remain draped across the Florida peninsula mid week through the weekend, with a sea breeze collision forecast to occur each afternoon. This will result in increasing rain chances each afternoon into the evening hours. Whether the sea breeze favors the eastern or western portion of the peninsula will remain dependent on the exact location of the ridge axis, and it is still a bit too far out to say with confidence where it will reside. Maintained a 60 to 70 percent chance of rain and up to a 60 percent chance of storms due to increasing moisture across the peninsula through the end of the work week, with PWATs once again climbing above 2 inches. Outside of convection, warm and muggy conditions will continue through the work week and into the weekend, with near normal highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The Atlantic high is forecast to move gradually move northward and build across the local waters today into early this week as Tropical Storm Chantal continues northward towards the Carolinas and weakens. Boating conditions will continue to improve locally, with seas of 3 to 5 feet today falling to around 1 to 3 feet Monday through Friday. South to southwest winds prevail through the period, forecast to remain below 15 knots. Areas closer to the coast may become a bit more southeasterly in the afternoons as the east coast sea breeze develops, but will return to south to southwest flow late evening into the overnight hours. Despite the area of high pressure building across the local Atlantic waters, a moist airmass is forecast to remain in place, leading to a persistent active pattern locally. Activity will trend towards the more typical summertime convective pattern, with PoPs generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent. Showers and storms will primarily be focused in the late evening and overnight hours across the local waters as activity from the peninsula moves offshore due to the prevailing southwesterly flow. Lightning strikes, gusty winds in excess of 34 knots, and heavy downpours will be the primary concerns with any storms that do develop. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Some MVFR/IFR conds to start the day around the Orlando/Daytona areas, but that will lift quickly through the morning. Expect S/SW winds 5-12 KT with few gusts to 20 KT prevailing by early afternoon. TS development expected beyond 18-20Z through around sunset; activity will be moving SW to NE. Convective gusts to 35 KT seem more attainable today due to stronger background winds, but overall coverage is more in doubt compared to previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 91 75 / 60 20 50 10 MCO 91 75 92 76 / 70 20 60 10 MLB 91 75 91 76 / 60 20 50 20 VRB 92 71 91 72 / 50 20 40 20 LEE 89 76 90 76 / 70 20 60 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 60 10 ORL 91 76 92 76 / 70 20 60 10 FPR 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil