837 FXUS62 KMLB 251853 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - A strong high pressure ridge will persist into next week, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures and heat indices. - Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into early next week. - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and Orange counties on Saturday from 11am-7pm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers have developed near I-4 early this afternoon. Activity is forecast to lift northwest through the remainder of the day with peak coverage (~40%) occurring across and near Lake county as the west coast sea breeze approaches. Dry air building above 700mb has kept activity shallow with only isolated lightning strikes observed so far today. Lingering showers will be possible around Lake county through 10pm with dry conditions forecast overnight. Muggy and mild conditions hold tonight with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Monday... Strong mid-level high pressure continues to build over the southeast U.S. Associated subsidence and compressional warming will promote a period of dangerous heat locally, and this heat wave looks to be the most significant so far this summer. High temperatures warm a few degrees each day, widely ranging the mid to upper 90s across the north interior with low to mid 90s elsewhere. Monday remains forecast as the hottest day though the period with highs forecast just below 100F near, north, and west of I-4. Above normal temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat index values up to 110F across the I-4 urban corridor this weekend, ranging 105-109F further south. An increase in moisture early next week will further produce heat index values near 112F north and west of I-4 on Monday. While the most significant heat impacts will occur during the afternoon, expect only gradual relief through the evening with temperatures slow to fall through the 80s, especially near urban centers. Due to prolonged periods of daily heat, a Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast near and north of I-4, particularly on Monday. Low temperatures range the mid to upper 70s across the north with low to mid 70s across the south. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and Orange counties from 11am-7pm Saturday. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for portions of east central Florida late this weekend and into early next week with near Extreme Heat conditions possible. Residents and visitors are encouraged to follow the forecast and plan to take the proper heat safety actions to prevent heat stress and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. A drier airmass will keep rain chances low with a 10% chance along the coast each day and a 20-30% chance west of I-95. Winds often become light and variable through the weekend in vicinity of surface ridging. A weak sea breeze will shift winds onshore around 5-10 mph. Tuesday-Thursday... A mid-level shortwave digs across the western Atlantic, nudging high pressure westward. Moisture begins to rebuild as a weak surface trough sinks across the southeast U.S. and adjacent Atlantic waters. However, surface ridging becomes reinforced locally as a nose of high pressure extends across south Florida. Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with temperatures and heat index values finally beginning to decline mid next week. Highs on Tuesday climb again into the mid to upper 90s across the interior, ranging the low to mid 90s closer to the coast, and the increased moisture should push Heat Index values toward Heat Advisory criteria for at least northern portions of east central Florida. While still hot, temperatures noticeably decrease Wednesday and Thursday with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s. Increasing rain chances (40-60%) will bring some relief from the heat, particularly from Wednesday onward. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 High pressure centered over the southwest Atlc will push westward across the FL peninsula and into the Gulf this weekend, maintaining favorable boating conditions. SE winds 10 knots today should become light and variable this weekend with a weak sea breeze near the coast. A weak, reinforcing ridge axis will nose westward across south Florida early next week. Seas 2-3 ft today, diminishing to 1-2 ft through Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 VFR continues for most sites, outside of brief VCTS/SHRA impacts at SFB/MCO/ISM/LEE. Currently, no VC is included at DAB but may need to be introduced for a brief time this afternoon. ESE winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kt, especially at the coast. Then, calmer overnight with clearer conditions. Variable winds become easterly after 15z Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 92 76 93 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 75 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 20 MLB 76 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 72 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 76 95 78 96 / 30 20 0 20 SFB 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 0 20 ORL 76 97 78 97 / 10 10 0 20 FPR 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ041-044>046- 141-144. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Schaper