984 FXUS62 KMLB 110024 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 824 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - A cold front will move across east central Florida Friday night but rain chances are low (20% or less) with dry conditions forecast much of next week. - Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast Friday and Saturday with gusty winds and low humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Sea breeze collision occurring along the Lake/Sumter county line at 8 pm. Isolated showers will occur along this convergent zone and will drift eastward into the late evening, possibly into west Orange county before dissipating. Have a small (20%) rain chance to account for this but thunder is not forecast. Winds will become light and variable by midnight as the sea breeze circulation diminishes. No other changes to current forecast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows isolated to widely scattered showers mainly over eastern St. Lucie and Martin counties, in addition to the adjacent Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows partly cloudy to partly sunny skies over east central Florida. High pressure (1024mb) is situated over the Gulf of America. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the upper 50s to 60s. Winds are generally from the east-northeast at 5-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph. Isolated showers over the Treasure Coast are forecast to diminish into the late afternoon. The potential exists for an isolated shower (20%) over Lake, NW Osceola, and W Orange counties into this evening (7pm-11pm) as the west coast sea breeze converges with east-northeast winds. Dry weather is forecast overnight with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Mostly dry weather is forecast through the afternoon on Friday before a cold front is expected to move east-southeast over east central Florida which is expected to extend from low pressure (1008mb) over the Carolinas, in addition to the adjacent Atlantic waters. The front is expected to weaken as it moves east-southeast over central Florida before moving east-southeast over the Treasure Coast Saturday morning. Isolated showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop into Friday evening (after 4pm) over the coastal counties as west-southwest flow converges with the east coast sea breeze with PWAT values in the 0.9"-1.25" range. Isolated showers and lightning storms (20%) are also forecast to develop along and ahead of the cold front mainly from Cape Canaveral northward after 5PM and into Saturday morning before the front weakens to the south of Cape Canaveral. A limited potential for lightning exists Friday evening into Saturday morning with MUCAPE between 500-1,200 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear between 40-60kts. The main hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 40mph. West-southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. The weekend... Dry weather is forecast this weekend as high pressure (1020mb) builds over the southeastern US and PWATs decrease into the 0.25"-0.75" range. Northwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph on Saturday are forecast to weaken and veer generally northeast into Sunday at 5-10mph. Cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the 70s Saturday and the mid 70s to low 80s on Sunday. Lows in the mid 50s to low 60s are forecast Saturday morning with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Sunday. Monday-Wednesday... High pressure (1020mb) is forecast to build over the state of Florida on Monday before a cold front is expected to move east-southeast over central Florida Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Dry weather is expected with PWAT values in the 0.25-0.80" range through Tuesday. East-southeast winds at 6-12mph are forecast into the afternoon east of the Orlando metro with west-southwest winds to the west before west- southwest flow increase into Tuesday at 10-15mph. Above normal temperatures are expected with highs 80s before cooler air on Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s behind the aforementioned cold front. Lows in the 50s are expected Monday with the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Currently-Friday... Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are expected to improve into Friday morning before becoming poor to hazardous into Friday afternoon as a cold front moves east- southeast over the waters Friday night. Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers (20-60%) and lightning storms are forecast after 4pm and into Saturday morning. The main hazards will be occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 40mph. Light winds at 5-10kts are expected to increase from the south-southeast into the afternoon at 10-20kts. Seas to 7-10ft (except for nearshore Volusia county where seas to 4-6ft are forecast) are expected to gradually decrease into Friday at 2-4ft nearshore and 4-6ft over the Gulf Stream. Saturday-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions on saturday are expected to improve into Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered (20-30%) offshore moving showers are forecast offshore (20-60nm) Saturday into Sunday morning. North-northwest winds at 10-20kts are expected to decrease into Sunday from the east- northeast at 5-10kts and from the south-southeast on Monday. Seas to 4-6ft over the Gulf Stream and 2-4ft nearshore are expected to decrease into Sunday at 2-4ft with up to 5ft over the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 VFR conditions forecast through the TAF period. East winds this evening will become light and variable overnight. On Fri, WSW winds will increase 10-15 knots gusting around 20 knots aft 14Z across northern terminals. Offshore flow not as strong across southern terminals so a SE wind shift is forecast to develop VRB- SUA by 18Z behind a sea breeze. A similar wind shift may affect MLB later in the afternoon but confidence is lower. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Sensitive to near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated to develop on Friday and continue through the weekend and into the middle of next week as drier air behind a reinforcing cold front settles across east central Florida. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 35 percent and lower across the interior most afternoons. Winds reach 10 to 15 mph and gusty Friday and Saturday, then decreasing below 10 mph through the remainder of the weekend and into the middle of next week. Rain chances also fall below 10 percent into the weekend which will allow for the drying of fuels locally. Based on current forecasted conditions, Red Flag criteria could be met on Friday and Saturday, but it is too early to make any definitive decisions on whether to issue products. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 57 83 57 75 / 10 20 20 10 MCO 61 85 58 77 / 10 10 20 0 MLB 62 84 58 78 / 10 20 20 0 VRB 61 84 58 78 / 10 20 20 0 LEE 59 83 57 76 / 20 20 20 0 SFB 61 85 58 77 / 10 20 20 0 ORL 62 85 60 77 / 10 10 20 0 FPR 61 84 57 78 / 10 20 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly