552
FXUS62 KMLB 261122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
622 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Temperatures turn warmer late this week. Long stretches of dry
  weather are anticipated, but low shower chances remain in the
  forecast through Saturday.

- Our next cold front arrives Sunday with a 40 to 50% chance of
  showers and a few lightning storms.

- Behind the weakening front, drier weather returns but no
  significant cold temperatures are forecast through New Year`s
  Day.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Currently...Dense fog has developed this morning across portions
of Lake, Seminole, Orange, and Volusia counties. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for visibility reductions down to one
quarter mile or less. If out driving, be sure to slow down, use
low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following distance
between vehicles. Conditions are forecast to improve near to
shortly after sunrise, with the Dense Fog Advisory ending at 8 AM.

Today-Tonight...Mid level ridging remains in place across the
peninsula, with the associated broad area of high pressure
situated near the Mid Atlantic region. Locally, this will result
in light east-northeast winds today at the surface, helping to
advect warm, moist air from the Atlantic across the peninsula.
Light to isolated shower chances remain low across east central
Florida for today, though CAM guidance continues to hint at
development this afternoon. If any showers do develop, 700 mb
winds out of the southwest will cause activity to move
northeastward. By tonight, guidance is indicating that activity
will increase across the local Atlantic waters, though some
isolated showers cannot fully be ruled out along the coast.
Lightning is not expected with activity.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist today as a result of
higher moisture present across the area. Despite this,
temperatures are still forecast to warm into the mid to upper 70s,
with some areas near Lake Okeechobee potentially reaching 80 this
afternoon. Cloud coverage will then build overnight, limiting the
ability of temperatures to cool slightly. Lows are forecast to
fall into the upper 50s across far northern Lake and Volusia
counties, with areas southward only falling into the 60s.

Friday-Sunday...The aforementioned mid level ridging moves
eastward Friday into Saturday, allowing for a series of shortwave
troughs to quickly lift from the Ark-La-Tex region towards the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, this will translate to the surface
high being kicked eastward out across the Atlantic Friday and
Saturday, leading to veering winds locally and increasing moisture
across the peninsula that, when aided by the shortwave energy
aloft, could lead to some isolated to scattered showers. The next
best chance for rain and storms, however, is on Sunday, as
troughing aloft sweeps across the eastern U.S., lifting a surface
low northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex region towards the Mid
Atlantic. The attendant cold front is forecast to push
southeastward across the Florida peninsula, bringing increasing
rain and storm chances to east central Florida. There continues to
be some discrepancies between the longer range models about rain
chances, so stuck with the NBM for Sunday rain chances (40 to 50
percent). A low chance (20 percent) for isolated thunderstorms
also cannot be ruled out on Sunday with the frontal passage.
Conditions are forecast to gradually improve into Sunday night as
the front shifts southward, with the highest rain chances then
confined to the local Atlantic waters.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s.

Monday-Wednesday...Behind the front, quasi-zonal flow sets up
aloft, allowing for a weak area of high pressure to develop across
the southeastern U.S. early next week into mid week. Conditions
locally are forecast to remain mostly dry, with skies forecast to
stay mostly clear as we head towards the new year. Some isolated
showers across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out
entirely, though confidence remains low this far out. The cold
front will do little to cool temperatures, with highs forecast to
remain in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

High pressure north of the local Atlantic waters is forecast to
remain in place into the weekend, slowly drifting eastward.
Northeast winds today are forecast to veer onshore and increase
to 10 to 20 knots on Friday, and will then shift southeastward on
Saturday. Seas respond by building to 4 to 6 feet across the local
waters, with poor boating conditions forecast especially across
the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible across the local waters through Saturday. By Sunday, a
cold front is forecast to push southeastward across the waters,
with increasing rain and storm chances expected. Southerly winds
10 to 20 knots become light and variable at 5 to 10 knots behind
the front into Monday, with seas falling to 2 to 4 feet by Monday.
Generally good boating conditions are forecast early next week,
though some isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the local
waters through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Fog at terminals along and north of the I-4 corridor continues to
clear, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail by 13Z. Until then,
TEMPOs have been included for MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS reductions.
Otherwise, a few showers will be possible, mainly along the coast,
today. VCSH has been included for the Treasure Coast after 15Z,
though confidence in timing or additional impacts is too low to
include mention at this time. Easterly flow through the period,
remaining around 10kts or less. Patchy fog/low stratus will be
possible once again overnight after 7Z. Will continue to monitor
for future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  61  75  63 /  20  30  30  10
MCO  77  62  78  63 /  20  20  30  10
MLB  76  65  77  65 /  20  30  40  20
VRB  78  66  78  66 /  20  30  40  20
LEE  75  60  79  62 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  76  61  78  63 /  10  20  30  10
ORL  77  62  78  63 /  20  20  30  10
FPR  78  66  78  65 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-144.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson