681
FXUS62 KMLB 262324
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Strong ridge of high pressure will persist into early next week,
  keeping rain chances much below normal and increasing
  temperatures and heat indices.

- Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into next
  week.

- Heat Advisory conditions for portions of east central Florida
  through at least Sunday. Near Extreme Heat conditions possible
  early next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Hot conditions around the area this
afternoon, as a surface ridge remains over the Florida peninsula.
A combination of subsidence, warm temperatures aloft (-6C), and
dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will greatly
limit convection through the afternoon. CAMs do suggest a few
showers or storms developing west of Orlando late this afternoon
or early this evening, so have maintained a 20% PoP for this area.
However, would not be surprised if conditions remain dry area-
wide, with an inversion above 950mb in the 15Z XMR sounding. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM due to heat indices
up to around 108 degrees. While temperatures will cool off this
evening into the overnight, areas from around Melbourne northward,
including the Orlando metro are forecast to remain in the mid to
upper 70s overnight, contributing to the major HeatRisk today.

Sunday-Monday...Similar conditions are forecast into early next
week, while the surface ridge slowly drifts westward along the
northern Gulf coast and weak ridging develops across southern
Florida. Drier air aloft lingers, along with a diminishing SAL
through Monday. Meanwhile, deeper moisture advecting in at the
surface will lead to increasingly humid conditions. Hot
temperatures will continue, with near-record highs forecast to
reach the upper 90s over the interior, mainly from Osceola County
northward. A few locations could reach 100, especially Monday.
Along the coast, onshore flow in the afternoons is expected to
keep highs in the lower to mid-90s. A Heat Advisory has been
issued from Noon to 7 PM Sunday for all but the Treasure Coast.
Heat indices up to 110 will be possible in the advisory area.
Additional Heat Advisories, if not Excessive Heat Warnings will
likely be needed for Monday, as heat indices increase further to
up to near 114 degrees. The Treasure Coast is currently forecast
to miss out on the hottest conditions, thanks to onshore flow.
However, heat indices 100-107 degrees are still forecast there.

PoPs will remain below normal (25% or less) through Monday. While
convection will be limited, and generally confined to areas near
and west of Orlando, any storms that develop could be strong,
should they be able to take advantage of drier air aloft. Light
and variable winds in the morning will become onshore and increase
to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Lower wind speeds will
provide minimal relief from the hot temperatures. Overnight lows
will also remain very warm, only reaching the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday-Friday (previous)...Shortwave energy dives southward
around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily
bisects this ridge that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination
of slightly decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in
moisture should increase rain/storm chances back to more typical
coverage (40-60 percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to
the heat, but conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any
aftn rain/storms. Model guidance shows the mid level ridge
rebuilding over the area late week so max temps look to remain
well into the 90s with heat indices 105-110.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through early this week, as
high pressure continues to influence the local pattern. Below
normal chances for showers and storms through Monday. Then, nearer
to normal afternoon convection is expected mid-week, as ridging
weakens. However, prevailing onshore steering flow will work to
limit offshore-moving showers and storms. Light overnight and
early morning flow early this week will become generally southerly
into mid-week. Regardless, winds are forecast to become onshore
each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under
15 kts through the period. Seas 1-2 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds tonight and Sunday morning shift easterly around 10 kts in
the afternoon/evening with the sea breeze, then return to light
and variable Sunday night. Below normal rain chances continue,
but can`t rule out a brief SHRA/TSRA INVOF of the inland terminals
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
MCO  77  97  78  98 /   0  20   0  20
MLB  76  92  77  92 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  73  92  74  92 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  78  97  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  77  97  78  98 /   0  10   0  20
ORL  78  98  78  99 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  71  92  73  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley