081 FXUS62 KMLB 081904 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 304 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Isolated to scattered storms are forecast this evening. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. - Coverage of showers and storms will gradually increase later in the workweek as moisture builds over Florida. - Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F, visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...A loose pressure gradient as the ridge axis of the Atlantic high weakly reaches towards Central Florida has resulted in a fairly light and variable wind field. The sea breeze has developed and pushed inland a bit from the Cape south, while being pinned near the coast to the north, due to upper level clouds. Broadly speaking, slightly below normal moisture looks to support isolated to scattered showers (chances 30-50%) initially developing on the sea breezes in the late afternoon, with the highest coverage along the sea breeze collision in the evening over the inland counties. While there`s plenty of instability and decent lapse rates (especially in the low-levels), dry/warm mid- levels have again been a significant hurdle to convection. So far this afternoon have only seen a few short lived, light showers, and a single lightning storm in East Central Florida. Expect a little more destabilization over the next couple hours from daytime heating, which will help some, but for the most part will need boundaries to find pockets of higher low- level moisture to get deeper convection going. Frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 35-45 mph, and locally heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms. Afternoon highs in the L90s combined with humidity will result in peak heat indices 100-106F. Wednesday-Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) No significant changes to the overall pattern Wednesday. Maybe a little more moisture to work with, which could support more scattered than isolated showers and storms (chances 40-60%), especially on the sea breeze collision over the interior in the late afternoon and evening. By Thursday, a modest increase in available moisture, combined with weak south to southwest flow in the lower troposphere as the ridge axis shifts south, will support 50-70% chances for showers and storms in the heat of the afternoon, persisting into the early evening hours. Propagation of some storms toward the coast should be anticipated. Typical July heat and humidity will continue with heat indices maxing out as high as 106 deg F or so. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, the extended duration of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk conditions will increase the risk for heat-related illness, especially for vulnerable individuals with compromised health or insufficient access to air conditioning. Early Next Week...(Previous Discussion) Guidance continues to show dominant ridging over the subtropics, with the caveat of a potential weakness or TUTT off the East Coast. This has some potential to drag higher moisture over the state, leading to continued scattered-numerous coverage of showers and storms. Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure over the Atlantic basin remains in control as a weak surface ridge axis meanders north and south across Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters through the week. A very loose pressure gradient the next couple days will result in light and variable flow, with winds shifting onshore from the afternoon through the early overnight, to offshore from the late overnight through the morning, with the diurnal sea breeze circulation. South to southeasterly flow, backing in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze, becomes more established by late week into the weekend. Winds 5-10 kts, becoming light at times. Seas 1-3 ft. Mostly isolated showers and storms expected across the Atlantic waters today and Wednesday, then chances increase the second half of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Sparse showers initializing along the sea breeze early this afternoon which is significantly lower coverage than observed this time yesterday. Timing of limited convection will generally be pushed beyond 19-20Z, favoring KMCO right along the sea breeze collision. TEMPOs included for interior sites and northern coastal locations for MVFR/IFR in convection with less confidence along the Treasure Coast. Activity ending 00-01Z with variable winds overnight. Sea breeze development again at 16-17Z, with another round of afternoon storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 75 91 / 20 50 30 50 MCO 76 92 75 93 / 30 60 30 60 MLB 76 89 76 90 / 20 40 20 50 VRB 73 90 73 90 / 10 30 20 50 LEE 77 91 75 92 / 20 50 30 60 SFB 77 93 75 93 / 20 60 30 60 ORL 77 92 76 93 / 20 60 30 60 FPR 73 90 74 90 / 10 30 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Schaper