681 FXUS62 KMLB 262324 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Strong ridge of high pressure will persist into early next week, keeping rain chances much below normal and increasing temperatures and heat indices. - Dangerous, long-lasting heat is forecast this weekend into next week. - Heat Advisory conditions for portions of east central Florida through at least Sunday. Near Extreme Heat conditions possible early next week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Rest of Today-Tonight...Hot conditions around the area this afternoon, as a surface ridge remains over the Florida peninsula. A combination of subsidence, warm temperatures aloft (-6C), and dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will greatly limit convection through the afternoon. CAMs do suggest a few showers or storms developing west of Orlando late this afternoon or early this evening, so have maintained a 20% PoP for this area. However, would not be surprised if conditions remain dry area- wide, with an inversion above 950mb in the 15Z XMR sounding. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM due to heat indices up to around 108 degrees. While temperatures will cool off this evening into the overnight, areas from around Melbourne northward, including the Orlando metro are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s overnight, contributing to the major HeatRisk today. Sunday-Monday...Similar conditions are forecast into early next week, while the surface ridge slowly drifts westward along the northern Gulf coast and weak ridging develops across southern Florida. Drier air aloft lingers, along with a diminishing SAL through Monday. Meanwhile, deeper moisture advecting in at the surface will lead to increasingly humid conditions. Hot temperatures will continue, with near-record highs forecast to reach the upper 90s over the interior, mainly from Osceola County northward. A few locations could reach 100, especially Monday. Along the coast, onshore flow in the afternoons is expected to keep highs in the lower to mid-90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued from Noon to 7 PM Sunday for all but the Treasure Coast. Heat indices up to 110 will be possible in the advisory area. Additional Heat Advisories, if not Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed for Monday, as heat indices increase further to up to near 114 degrees. The Treasure Coast is currently forecast to miss out on the hottest conditions, thanks to onshore flow. However, heat indices 100-107 degrees are still forecast there. PoPs will remain below normal (25% or less) through Monday. While convection will be limited, and generally confined to areas near and west of Orlando, any storms that develop could be strong, should they be able to take advantage of drier air aloft. Light and variable winds in the morning will become onshore and increase to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Lower wind speeds will provide minimal relief from the hot temperatures. Overnight lows will also remain very warm, only reaching the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday-Friday (previous)...Shortwave energy dives southward around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily bisects this ridge that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination of slightly decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in moisture should increase rain/storm chances back to more typical coverage (40-60 percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to the heat, but conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any aftn rain/storms. Model guidance shows the mid level ridge rebuilding over the area late week so max temps look to remain well into the 90s with heat indices 105-110. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions through early this week, as high pressure continues to influence the local pattern. Below normal chances for showers and storms through Monday. Then, nearer to normal afternoon convection is expected mid-week, as ridging weakens. However, prevailing onshore steering flow will work to limit offshore-moving showers and storms. Light overnight and early morning flow early this week will become generally southerly into mid-week. Regardless, winds are forecast to become onshore each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15 kts through the period. Seas 1-2 ft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight and Sunday morning shift easterly around 10 kts in the afternoon/evening with the sea breeze, then return to light and variable Sunday night. Below normal rain chances continue, but can`t rule out a brief SHRA/TSRA INVOF of the inland terminals Sunday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 94 76 95 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 77 97 78 98 / 0 20 0 20 MLB 76 92 77 92 / 0 10 0 10 VRB 73 92 74 92 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 78 97 78 97 / 10 20 10 30 SFB 77 97 78 98 / 0 10 0 20 ORL 78 98 78 99 / 10 20 10 20 FPR 71 92 73 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Haley