405 FXUS62 KMLB 141240 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 840 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 - Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to persist across east central Florida through much of this week. - High pressure dominates across the area through most of the period, keeping rain chances below 10 percent. - A warming trend commences early this week. High temps reach the mid/upper 80s by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 An area of surface high pressure is anchored over the peninsula, where it will remain through the rest of today and into the overnight hours. Conditions remain dry, with the 10Z XMR sounding measuring a 0.69" PWAT value this morning. Skies remain mostly clear, though there could be some minor cloud development across the local Atlantic waters and Treasure Coast through today. No mentionable rain chances for today across all of east central Florida. Light south-southwest winds early this morning will back to out of the southeast along the coast as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Slightly above normal temperatures forecast today, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s, especially across the interior. Overall, the forecast remains on track for east central Florida. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Current-Tonight...Mid/upper trough pushes further seaward from the northeast U.S. Weakly amplified ridging will push toward the Eastern Seaboard. Light/variable mid-level flow across the FL peninsula. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging slips slowly southward from central FL. Light/variable morning winds become light S/SSW, then transition onshore in the afternoon with sea breeze development and push inland (10-13 mph near the coast). Winds later this evening/overnight revert back to light WRLY. PWATs remain unimpressive at under one inch areawide. Another day with MSunny skies and MClear conditions tonight. Conditions remain dry. Warming trend ensues after a cool morning with afternoon maxes in the L80s at the coast and M-U80s inland/interior. Overnight lows tonight into Tue morning range from the M-U50s across the interior and Volusia coast, with near 60F to L60s across the Orlando Metro and Space/Treasure coasts. Heightened fire sensitivity continues with dry conditions and rapidly drying fuels. Proper fire safety precautions should be taken, including avoiding open flames or sparks, keeping vehicles off of dry grass, and properly discarding any cigarettes. Tue-Tue Night...A weak troughy pattern at 500 mb across the Atlc Seaboard and FL peninsula as winds overhead strengthen a bit and become W/NW. Weak surface high pressure breaks down with the approach of a weak (dry) cold front that will slide down the FL peninsula during the evening and overnight. WRLY winds 10-15 mph and we might witness sea breeze development late in the day along the Space/Treasure coasts, but minimal movement inland, if any. PoPs remain below 10pct thru the period as PWATs remain rather pathetic. Pre-frontal max temps continue in the 80s. Lows Tue night/Wed morning will fall into the U50s to L60s. Still MSunny conditions during the day and we may see a few more clouds associated Tue night with frontal passage. Sensitive fire weather conditions continue on Tue due to the dry air and slightly higher winds. Wed-Sun...Aloft, the weak troughy pattern slides seaward as shortwave ridging pushes eastward across the Gulf and over the FL peninsula (Sat) and points further eastward into Sun. At the surface, the weak cold front continues to slide down the peninsula Wed, with high pressure returning Wed afternoon/Thu, then pushing into the western Atlc with associated east-west oriented ridge axis remaining just north of central FL into the weekend. Not a "lick" of rain in sight thru the extended. Briefly cooler Wed/Thu with U70s along the coast and L80s (few "mid") across the interior. The warming trend continues Fri-Sun with 80s nearly areawide, perhaps a few L90s well inland Sat/Sun. The latest cold front will reinforce drier air, with low afternoon min RH each day, which will continue to present a heightened fire danger, esp into the interior. Overnight lows pleasant Thu morning (post-frontal) - 50s most everywhere, then M-U50s to L60s Fri/Sat mornings & generally 60s just about areawide Sun/Mon mornings. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Today thru mid-week...High pressure ridging across the central peninsula today weakens with the approach of a weak cold front that will pass southward across the local waters Tue night into early Wed morning. High pressure returns to the area, once again, Wed/Thu. Light/variable winds early today will transition onshore at the coast in the afternoon with sea breeze development and push well inland. SW/W winds develop tonight with speeds increasing 10-15 kts, except 15-18 kts offshore north of Sebastian Inlet (overnight). S/SW winds on Tue, except a sea breeze pinned along the Space/Treasure coasts in the afternoon late Tue. Winds veer NW/N Tue overnight reaching 15-20 kts across the Volusia waters by daybreak Wed morning. Winds gradually weaken during thru the day on Wed while veering NNE/NE late. Winds continue below 15 kts thru Thu while gradually veering ERLY. Mostly dry thru the period but we may see ISOLD showers well offshore (Volusia/Brevard waters) Tue night in association with the boundary. Seas mostly 2-3 ft thru Tue, then build 4-5 ft offshore Tue overnight - Wed morning continuing thru Wed evening, then subsiding 2-4 ft into Thu. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 No significant weather through the TAF period. High pressure settles offshore, with light winds influenced by the sea breezes this afternoon. Coastal terminals becoming ESE 10-15 KT after midday. Orlando area terminals SSW light, becoming variable this evening. Gulf breeze turns winds westerly at LEE by around 21-22Z. SKC essentially throughout. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Generally dry conditions continue for much (if not all) of the upcoming week into the weekend. The only frontal passage (dry) is scheduled for Tue night/early Wed and this will act to reinforce the drier conditions. Sensitive fire weather conditions basically each day as fuels continue to dry. Minimum afternoon RH values fall into the 25 to 40 percent range across the interior each afternoon. Winds look to remain generally below 15 mph through much of the period, however, stronger winds (SW/W 10-15 mph) on Tue could lead to our next best chance for a Red Flag Warning across the interior. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 87 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 82 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 83 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 86 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 87 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 87 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 82 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil