287 FXUS62 KMFL 261118 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 718 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 High pressure surface and aloft extending from the Carolinas to just off the NE Florida coast will be the dominant weather feature over the area this weekend. As advertised over the past few days, unusually dry air associated with the high and a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) led to a record-daily-low precipitable water (PWAT) value of 1.14" in the Miami sounding from 00z (mean value for this time of year is 1.8 inches). The high pressure area will expand this weekend as it moves west, with the center of the high across the SE United States and NE Gulf waters late Sunday. A NE wind flow on the back/east side of the high will maintain the dry air mass across South Florida, with PWAT values ranging from 1.2 to 1.3 inches today increasing to 1.4 to 1.6 inches on Sunday as the core of the dry air moves west of the area. Latest and forecast soundings show a solid inversion in the 900 mb layer which will result in minimal convection today outside of perhaps one or two late afternoon showers attempting to form along the Gulf sea breeze over southern and eastern Collier County. The slight increase in moisture on Sunday may be able to support a few more showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf sea breeze Sunday afternoon over SW Florida, and we`re keeping Sunday PoPs in the 20-30% range over these areas. With the lack of precipitation/cloud cover, temperatures will be able to soar this weekend, especially over the Everglades where max temperatures this weekend will top in the upper 90s. The NBM seems to be handling temperatures well, and even shows greater than 50% probabilities of max temps exceeding 99F over eastern Collier County. Highs in the lower to mid 90s will be common everywhere else, except near 90F at the Atlantic beaches where E/NE winds will modify temperatures. A favorable aspect of the dry air over the region is lower surface dewpoints resulting from mixing of the dry air to the surface. Dewpoints are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s over portions of the Everglades, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere, which should prevent heat index values from reaching advisory criteria over a large enough area for the required duration. Nevertheless, heat index values over 100-105F for a good portion of the day are enough to lead to heat illness if precautions are not taken. Be sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the AC, and always look before you lock your vehicle for pets and children. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The large high pressure will continue to shift west early next week, eventually allowing for a weak 850-500 mb trough/shear axis over the central subtropical Atlantic to approach South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature, combined with a TUTT low, will shift the mean wind flow out of the SE beginning on Tuesday and continuing through most of next week. This will open up a bit more of a moisture channel into South Florida as we progress through the week, however ensemble mean PWAT values only modestly increase into the 1.7-1.9 inch range, near normal for late July. The trend of diurnal showers and thunderstorms will follow suit, with convection gradually increasing in coverage from Monday onward. The prevailing E/SE wind flow will favor morning showers across SE Florida and afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across interior and SW Florida areas. Interestingly, models show lingering SAL over the Bahamas and Florida through mid-week, an indication that there may still be a decent amount of stability in the low/mid levels. This is reflected in PoPs that stay below normal over SE Florida (20-40%) and increasing to 50-60% interior and Gulf coast. Wouldn`t be surprised if PoPs may end up having to be increased over SE Florida at times during the week depending on any patches of higher low- level moisture embedded in the E/SE flow transiting through the area. Temperatures will continue above normal, well in the 90s over most areas for the majority of the long term. In fact, the NBM is showing max temps in the mid to upper 90s over a fairly large area from west of Lake Okeechobee to the eastern Everglades during much of the week. This is supported by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) showing temperatures close to the upper end of the forecast distribution of the ensembles. This combined with dewpoints slowly increasing to more seasonable levels will elevate heat concerns and we`ll continue to monitor temperature and humidity trends over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Generally VFR through the period with easterly winds today at the east coast terminals. A Gulf sea breeze is forecast to develop and turn APF onshore. Wind will become lighter and more variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 High pressure over Florida today will shift west into the Gulf Sunday and Monday, and weaken during next week into a ridge across Central Florida. This will keep winds generally 10 knots or less, except near the Atlantic and Gulf coasts during the afternoons when a seabreeze will cause periods of winds of 10-15 knots. Seas are expected to remain 3 feet or less through the period. Little in the way of showers and thunderstorms is expected through the weekend, with a gradual increase next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The rip current risk will remain somewhat elevated at the Atlantic beaches today, then decrease Sunday through next week. Little to no precipitation is expected this weekend, with a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms next week following a pattern of morning/midday along the Atlantic beaches and afternoon/evening at the Gulf beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 78 92 79 / 10 0 10 10 West Kendall 92 75 92 76 / 0 0 10 20 Opa-Locka 93 78 94 79 / 0 0 10 10 Homestead 90 77 91 77 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 78 91 79 / 0 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 92 79 / 0 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 95 80 96 80 / 0 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 92 77 92 78 / 0 0 10 0 Boca Raton 93 78 93 78 / 0 0 10 10 Naples 95 78 95 79 / 10 0 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Molleda LONG TERM....Molleda AVIATION...RAG