876 FXUS62 KMFL 080543 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Mid level ridging will hold across the region today as surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends back towards the Florida Peninsula. The surface ridge axis will remain just off to the north of the region today which will allow for the surface synoptic wind flow to remain light with a general easterly direction. As the day progresses, the sea breezes will develop and push inland and they will become the main driver of the wind direction through the afternoon hours. With plenty of subsidence in place due to mid level ridging overhead, a pocket of drier air will remain in place across the mid levels throughout most of today which will help to create a delayed start in convective initiation once again. In general, the latest forecast model soundings show PWAT values ranging between 1.6 and 1.8 across the area this morning before gradually increasing over Southwest Florida heading into the afternoon and evening hours. As the lower level moisture increases and the sea breezes push inland, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again this afternoon. With a prevalent easterly steering flow, most of the activity will develop over the interior and push towards Southwest Florida as the afternoon progresses. With 500mb temperatures hovering between -8 and -8.5C this afternoon combined with ample instability, (SB Cape between 2500 and 3500 J/kg), this will be supportive of a few of the thunderstorms this afternoon becoming strong to marginally severe. DCAPE values look to be slightly higher when compared to yesterday as well, (900-1100 J/kg), especially over Southwest Florida. This would be supportive of strong gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms this afternoon over Southwest Florida where the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide. Small hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest thunderstorms with a sufficient source of relatively colder air aloft. High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over Southwest Florida. While the weather pattern on Wednesday looks to remain rather similar, there will be a subtle change as a weakening mid level disturbance slowly approaches the region from the Bahamas. The latest guidance suite does show that this disturbance is trending weaker and may stay off to the south during this time frame as the mid level ridge tries to hold strong. This scenario would keep convective initiation mainly sea breeze driven once again. With the surface ridge axis remaining nearby just to the north, the synoptic wind flow will remain rather light with a southeasterly component until the sea breezes develop and take over as the day progresses. With not much change in atmospheric instability along with plenty of subsidence aloft due to the mid level ridging creating the pocket of drier air in the mid levels (PWAT values remaining between 1.6 and 1.9 inches), some of the convection may become strong to marginally severe in the afternoon across Southwest Florida. This would be due to sea breeze boundary collisions as well as other mesoscale boundary collisions during peak diurnal heating. The strongest thunderstorms could could once again create strong gusty winds along with heavy downpours. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A more noticeable change will come in the weather pattern heading into Thursday as the weak mid level disturbance starts to turn towards the northwest and push into Southeast Gulf as the day progresses. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered in the Atlantic with South Florida remaining on the western periphery of the high. The synoptic wind flow will remain southeasterly, however, the latest guidance suite remains in good agreement with bringing in an increased surge of moisture over South Florida during this time frame as PWAT values rise above 2 inches across most of the region. Due to the weak mid level disturbance making its closest pass during this time frame as it turns northwestward into the Gulf, 500 mb temperatures look to slightly cool and will range between -8 and -9C throughout most of the day. While the extra moisture in place will help to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms, the extra source of lift due to the mid level disturbance may help to increase the chances of strong to marginally severe thunderstorm development. While the typical diurnal pattern will stay in place, with more moisture surging into the area there may be some additional showers and thunderstorms in the morning closer to the east coast metro areas before activity slides towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours with the southeasterly wind flow. The highest chances of strong to marginally severe convection will remain over Southwest Florida due to the proximity of the weak mid level disturbance combined with sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary collisions. Heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite looks to have come into better agreement with showing the weakening mid level disturbance pushing north out of the area as Friday progresses and eventually washing out and being absorbed by the ridge this weekend. At the surface, the ridge axis from the area of high pressure centered in the Atlantic will remain parked over the Florida Peninsula and will remain just to the north of the region through the end of the week and most of the weekend. This will result in a light southeasterly synoptic wind flow staying in place for Friday and Saturday and convective initiation will be mainly sea breeze driven during this time frame. With the mid level steering flow remaining light out of the east southeast each day, the typical summertime pattern will take place as convection forms along the sea breezes as they develop before pushing towards the interior and Southwest Florida each afternoon and evening through Sunday. An isolated strong thunderstorm or two will be possible over Southwest Florida each day through Sunday where the sea breezes and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures during Thursday through Sunday will not change much and will remain typical for this time of year as they will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s over Southwest Florida each afternoon during this time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the east after 16z and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop near the east coast terminals early this afternoon before pushing towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds increase out of the NW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible in storms near KAPF this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A gentle easterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters today before shifting and become southeast through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may shift and become west southwesterly each afternoon due to the Gulf breeze development. Winds may become moderate over the Atlantic waters towards the end of the week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens up a bit. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30 West Kendall 91 75 90 76 / 30 20 40 30 Opa-Locka 92 79 92 79 / 30 20 40 30 Homestead 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 90 79 89 80 / 40 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 94 81 93 81 / 40 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 90 78 89 78 / 40 20 40 20 Boca Raton 92 78 91 78 / 40 20 40 20 Naples 92 76 92 76 / 50 40 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CWC