418
FXUS62 KMFL 102325
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
625 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Shallow moisture combined with a breezy easterly to southeasterly wind
flow have allowed for light rain from Atlantic showers that come
ashore across South Florida. Surface high pressure centered over
the mid-Atlantic, a backdoor front over Central Florida, an
inverted trough moving through the Bahamas and the Greater
Antilles, and Rafael in the Gulf are the nearby synoptic-scale
features here on this Sunday. The northern extent of the inverted
trough will enter the region tonight as the mid-Atlantic high
slides eastward into the northern Atlantic, the surface wind over
southern Florida will become more southeasterly and lighten
slightly. The loss of the drier air and ridge aloft will allow for
an uptick in convection and a small chance for thunderstorms to
reenter the forecast tonight and Monday with a focus around the
Atlantic waters.

Overnight low temperatures will remain warm with 70s across much
of the area. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s on
Monday afternoon across most of the area. Heat index values should
remain in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

As the mid level and surface inverted trough pushes westward and
continues to weaken on Monday night, mid level ridging currently
over the Gulf of Mexico will push over the region heading into
Tuesday. This will promote a dry northwesterly wind flow aloft
across the region. Farther to the north, a weakening frontal
boundary at the surface will continue to slide into Central
Florida during this time frame. With the pocket of mid level dry
air advecting into the region, this will help to limit the chances
of showers during the day on Tuesday. However, there will be just
enough lower level moisture in place to support a slight chance
of a brief fast moving shower across the east coast. High
temperatures will be warm out ahead of the approaching front as
they will range from the mid 80s across the east coast to around
90 across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Mid level ridging will flatten out later on Wednesday as an
amplifying trough digs southeastward through the midwest and into
the Gulf Coast states. This will allow for the surface front to
push through the region later on Wednesday and a substantially
drier air mass will push into the region heading into Thursday.
With little moisture available across the region out ahead of the
front, many areas will remain dry as it passes across the region,
however, there will be just enough lower level moisture to
support a brief fast moving shower as it moves through. High
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will generally range from
the lower 80s along the east coast to the mid 80s over Southwest
Florida. Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning could
drop into the mid 60s west of the Lake to around 70 across the
east coast metro areas.

As the end of the week approaches, the uncertainty in the forecast
increases as model guidance is hinting at the possibility of a
secondary frontal boundary pushing through the region. If this
front were to pass through South Florida, this could bring a
reinforcing shot of drier and cooler air to the area heading into
the first part of the weekend. This will continue to be monitored
as the week progresses. The current forecast take a blend of the
guidance and has high temperatures rising into the lower 80s
across most areas during this time frame. Overnight lows could
potentially drop to around 60 west of the Lake and into the upper
60s across portions of the east coast metro areas to start the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Scattered showers continue in the vicinity of the east coast
terminals this evening with bouts of MVFR cigs possible as showers
pass near or over area terminals. Some uncertainty remains
regarding coverage for the remainder of the night; if confidence
increases in SHRA coverage, VCSH may need to be extended through
the early morning hours. Easterly winds will lessen and become
light and variable at all terminals by 07-09z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Easterly winds will remain elevated today around 20 kts for the
Atlantic waters with seas of 4-6 ft. Breezy winds around 15 kts
will continue for the rest of the local waters. Conditions are
expected to improve in the first half of this week as the pressure
gradient weakens.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Easterly flow will persist through the first half of this week,
keeping a high risk for rip currents ongoing. Winds will weaken a
bit in the early week period, but likely not enough to eliminate
the high risk. Additionally, we look to be entering another period
of king tides towards the middle of this week which could bring
back some coastal flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  87  75  87 /  30  20  10  10
West Kendall     73  88  72  89 /  30  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        75  88  74  88 /  30  20  10  10
Homestead        75  87  74  87 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  86  75  85 /  30  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  76  86  75  87 /  30  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   75  89  74  89 /  30  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  76  86  74  85 /  20  20  20  10
Boca Raton       76  87  75  87 /  30  20  20  10
Naples           71  86  72  88 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Hadi