725
FXUS62 KMFL 162235
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
535 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

  - Mainly dry and breezy conditions will remain in place across
    most of South Florida today.

  - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic
    waters through tonight as winds and seas remain elevated.

  - A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
    Coast beaches through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

A mid level trough will gradually slide offshore into the western
Atlantic today which will allow for a mid level ridge to gradually
build back over the region tonight into Wednesday. At the surface, a
rather strong area of high pressure centered over the Southeast will
gradually slide to the east off into the Atlantic today through
Wednesday. As a dissipating frontal boundary continues to slide
further to the south across the Florida Straits, the pressure
gradient across South Florida will slowly begin to decrease as
today progresses. While breezy conditions may persist especially
across the east coast through this afternoon, east northeasterly
wind flow will gradually subside heading into tonight and
Wednesday.

The combination of a northwesterly wind flow aloft combined with
strong surface high pressure continuing to build into the region
from the northeast will allow for a much drier air mass to work
into South Florida today. The latest forecast model soundings
show PWAT values continuing to fall and these values will drop to
around 0.6 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region to 0.9 inches
across the far southern areas of the Peninsula. As the wind flow
becomes more easterly heading into Wednesday, a slight increase in
moisture advection may take place, however, most areas across
South Florida will see PWAT values remain below an inch during
this time frame. While most areas will remain rain free today and
Wednesday, an isolated passing shower cannot be entirely ruled out
especially across the immediate east coast during this time
frame. Any shower that does develop will be low topped and rather
short lived.

High temperatures today will generally rise into the mid to upper
70s across most areas while low temperatures tonight range from the
mid 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid to upper 60s across the
east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
slightly warmer as the wind flow become more easterly and they
will rise into the upper 70s across the east coast and into the
lower 80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mid level ridging holds strong across the region on Thursday,
however, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite remains in
relatively good agreement with bringing a quick moving mid level
trough across most of the Eastern Seaboard heading into Friday.
This mid level trough will briefly flatten out the ridge over
South Florida during this time frame, however, guidance also
remains in good agreement with keeping the trough axis off to the
north across Northern and Central Florida. At the surface, a
cold front will extend across the Great Lakes region and into the
Deep South on Thursday. This front will quickly sweep across the
Eastern Seaboard and extend into the Florida Peninsula as Friday
progresses.

With the best dynamics remaining to the north of the region, this
front will be in a weakening state as it approaches the area
during the end of the week. Uncertainty does rise a bit during the
end of the week in regards to the timing of the frontal passage
as the GFS guidance suite shows a faster moving front then the
ECMWF guidance suite. In any event, moisture advection will be
taking place across the region as winds veer and become south
southeasterly on Thursday, and then eventually southwesterly
heading into Friday. With the best instability remaining well to
the north, thunderstorm chances will remain very limited out ahead
of the front. However, a low end chance of showers will be
introduced on Thursday and these chances could linger through the
the end of the week depending on the exact timing and location of
the front during this time frame. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures through the
end of the week will be rather warm out ahead of the front and
will range between the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid
80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging looks to
reestablish itself across South Florida as high pressure builds back
into the region from the north on Saturday and Sunday. With the
dissipating frontal boundary still nearby or just off to the south,
there will be still some lingering lower level moisture in place
which could spark off some isolated shower activity as the
pressure gradient increases and winds become east northeasterly
again. These chances would remain on the lower end of things and
they would be mainly confined to the eastern half of the region.
High temperatures over the weekend will generally remain in the
lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period with consistent easterly
flow. Winds could gust to around 20kts over the next hour or so,
but should weaken overnight. Slight chance for a shower along the
east coast sites, although not nearly enough confidence or
coverage expected to mention in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
today as a fresh to strong east northeasterly breeze remains in
place along with a lingering northeasterly swell. The winds and the
swell will gradually subside over the Atlantic waters towards the
middle of the week. Across the Gulf waters, a moderate to fresh east
northeasterly breeze will remain in place through the middle of the
week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 6 to
9 feet through this afternoon before gradually diminishing by
Wednesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally remain between
3 to 5 feet today before diminishing tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 125 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through Thursday as persistent onshore flow continues.
With a northeasterly swell lingering today, the surf especially
across Palm Beach County could remain elevated as 4 to 6 foot waves
remain possible in the surf zone today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            67  78  70  82 /   0   0  10  20
West Kendall     62  80  66  83 /   0   0  10  20
Opa-Locka        66  80  68  83 /   0  10  10  20
Homestead        66  79  69  82 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  67  77  69  81 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  67  78  69  81 /  10  10  10  30
Pembroke Pines   65  80  68  83 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  66  78  69  82 /  10   0  10  30
Boca Raton       67  79  69  83 /  10  10  10  30
Naples           61  82  64  83 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...99