380
FXUS62 KTBW 021214
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
814 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

In the upper levels, a deep trough axis is stretched out from
eastern Canada through the Mid-Atlantic states, while a developing
short wave over the Mississippi Delta is rounding the base of the
trough and will reach the eastern Gulf by this evening. This
shortwave will then cutoff from the main flow and linger through at
least Wednesday night in the vicinity of Florida before lifting out
to the north during the second half of the week. At the surface,
weak and somewhat variable westerly flow is holding in place today.
With deep moisture remaining across southwest Florida from the
remnants of a stalled front, scattered showers and storms are
developing over the eastern Gulf early this morning and shifting
east into the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of the Tampa Bay.
By mid afternoon, these storms over the waters will be fading out,
with the focus of convection shifting into the interior through
the late afternoon, but high resolution models are hinting that
storms could build back west into the coast during the early
evening hours.

By Tuesday, broad surface high pressure will setup north of Florida,
favoring southeast to east flow that will hold through at least
Thursday. As moisture increases from the southeast, the previously
mentioned shortwave will drop temperatures aloft, increasing
instability, while developing a weak surface wave. As a result,
scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday
through Wednesday night before the shortwave and surface wave lift
out.

Thursday through the weekend, the surface high will ridge across
the central Florida Peninsula, resulting in light southeast to
southerly flow. This pattern will bring scattered to numerous
showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A messy forecast today as an old boundary moves out of the area
and an upper level low dives south. For out TAF site south of TPA
showers will be on and off through the next 24 hours. I have
tried my best to highlight the most likely time to see
thunderstorm at TAF locations but can`t rule out as isolated
thunderstorms outside of those hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

High pressure will gradually build in north of Florida today and
Tuesday, with light and variable flow today becoming southeasterly
and easterly Tuesday through Thursday, then more southerly by
Friday. Showers and storms developing over the eastern Gulf early
this morning will shift onshore through the rest of the morning and
early afternoon, mainly from around the Tampa Bay south. The rest of
the week, the highest rain chances will be in the afternoon and
early evening as storms push west into the coastal waters from the
Florida Peninsula. Wind speeds and sea heights will generally remain
less than headline criteria, but daily thunderstorms will produce
locally hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Drier air over the Nature Coast will drop relative humidity
percentages into the upper 30s this afternoon, but widespread
critically low humidity is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  90  75 /  50  50  70  50
FMY  89  73  86  73 /  80  70  90  60
GIF  89  72  87  72 /  60  50  80  40
SRQ  87  73  89  73 /  60  60  80  60
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  40  30  70  40
SPG  86  75  87  75 /  60  50  80  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close