864
FXUS62 KTBW 110750
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
350 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Troughing aloft remains over the E U.S. this morning, while
surface ridging ridges down the E Seaboard across the state into
the Gulf south of a frontal boundary draped across the N Gulf
states. The front will push across the state this evening and
overnight, preceded by showers and storms, a few of which may be
severe accompanied by a large hail and damaging wind gust threat.
SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk across the Nature
Coast, extending south across western Hernando and coastal Pasco
counties to just north and west of Tampa Bay. While guidance does
not indicate widespread coverage of showers and storms, it does
continue to indicate an isolated severe potential with what
convection that does manage to develop. Timing continues to favor
late afternoon through early to mid evening for the greatest
threat across the northern Nature Coast, and late evening into the
early overnight hours further south across areas closer to WCFL.
The storm threat looks to diminish south of the I-4 corridor
although some showers may persist into the interior and SWFL later
into the night before diminishing. Breezy westerly winds are
likely to develop this afternoon across much of the area preceding
the front, with an elevated fire potential likely over the
interior, and Red Flag Warning in effect for Polk County this
afternoon into early evening. Warm conditions expected with highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

High pressure builds into the region on Saturday as the front
departs, with cooler and drier air filtering into the state under
mostly sunny skies and continued occasionally breezy conditions
particularly during the afternoon. Highs generally 5-8 degrees
cooler are expected, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. High Risk of
rip currents expected at area beaches on Saturday, while the
elevated fire risk is likely to persist away from the coast during
the afternoon. Lighter winds expected on Sunday should allow for
improving beach conditions and reduced fire concerns, with a
warming trend ensuing as high pressure settles over the SE U.S.
through early next week. Generally quiet weather conditions
expected through the week as temps warm into the mid to upper 80s,
with a dry front around mid week being the only item of note for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Generally VFR expected through the period. A cold front dropping
south across the peninsula late Friday evening into overnight will
bring a slight chance of showers and a storm with associated brief
restriction chances, and have addressed with PROB30 group for
TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ between 12/02-06Z. Omitted mention for southern
terminals due to even lower confidence on impactful conditions
spreading that far south given the diminishing convective trend
with southward progression. Otherwise expect increasing westerly
winds into afternoon with higher gusts, slightly diminishing late
evening into overnight for most terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A cold front moving across the waters this evening and overnight
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with winds
increasing to exercise caution levels tonight and remaining
elevated through Saturday before subsiding into Sunday. Showers
and storms diminish by Saturday morning with dry conditions
expected into mid week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A cold front will push across the peninsula this evening through
tonight bringing a few showers and storms mainly to northern and
central parts of the forecast area. Breezy westerly winds ahead of
the front this afternoon coupled with relative humidities dropping to
around 30 percent and a moderate significant fire potential have led
to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Polk County, effective
this afternoon into early evening. Cooler and drier air moving into
the area behind the front along with lingering elevated winds will
lead to continued elevated fire potential again on Saturday
afternoon. Winds diminish on Sunday, slightly alleviating overall
fire concerns, however critical minimum RHs during the afternoons
will persist into next week along with moderate significant fire
potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  63  75  59 /   0  30   0   0
FMY  84  63  80  57 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  85  58  77  54 /   0  20   0   0
SRQ  80  64  76  59 /   0  40   0   0
BKV  81  53  74  49 /  10  30   0   0
SPG  78  66  73  62 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Saturday
     night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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