544
FXUS62 KTBW 280011
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Record heat this afternoon with Tampa recording its first ever
triple digit reading of 100...and now a few strong/severe
thunderstorms are pushing down Tampa Bay and across southern
Pinellas. The showers/storms will push offshore and end by
midnight, with skies becoming mostly clear overnight.
The strong U/L ridge will hold over the forecast area tomorrow
with another day of record heat and extremely high apparent
temperatures...which will likely end again with scattered strong
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
High pressure over the southeast U.S. at the surface and aloft
will continue to slowly drift west over the next few days, but
remain close enough through Monday to keep the rather hot and dry
conditions across the area. Enough moisture, precipitable water
1.6 to 1.7 inches, has returned though to allow for isolated to
scattered convection to develop later this afternoon and evening
and again during Monday afternoon and evening. By midweek deeper
moisture will return allowing for higher rain chances, but then
the low level ridge axis will have sunk to across south Florida
with a southwesterly flow (Regime 4) setting up. Therefore, the
highest rain chances during the second half of the week will shift
to the interior.
Temperatures will continue to climb to near record values again on
Monday and Tuesday with heat indices climbing to around 112. A few
isolated locations could see heat indices a little higher like
today, but not expected to be widespread enough for an Excessive
Heat Warning. For now have issued another Heat Advisory for
Monday, and may end up needing another one for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms mainly vcnty SRQ/TPA
with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs ending by midnight. Skies will
become mostly clear at all terminals after midnight with VFR
conditions expected into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Hot and dry weather continues into the work week as strong high
pressure remains in control. There could be some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay area late this
afternoon, pushing offshore this evening. A similar setup will
take place each evening before greater rain chances return later
in the work week. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain
below 15 knots with seas of around 2 feet or less.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
The hot and rather dry pattern will continue early this week with
moisture gradually increasing during midweek. Relative humidities
will remain above critical levels with winds generally less than
10 mph, so no fire weather concerns are expected. Winds however
could be gusty and erratic in the vicinity of any showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Tampa has reached 99 degrees today setting a new daily and monthly
record for July. This also ties the highest temperature ever
recorded at Tampa set on June 26, 2020 and June 5, 1985. Records
at Tampa go back to April 1, 1890.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 97 82 95 / 20 20 20 50
FMY 78 97 78 95 / 10 30 20 50
GIF 78 100 78 99 / 10 20 10 50
SRQ 78 96 79 93 / 20 20 30 40
BKV 76 98 76 97 / 10 20 20 50
SPG 82 95 82 93 / 20 20 30 50
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for Coastal Citrus-
Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana