384
FXUS62 KTBW 110636
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
236 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Upper level troughing to the north weakens and lifts northeastward
over New England by this evening. This will allow for upper ridging
south of Florida to lift northward with the ridge axis centered
through central Florida. On the surface, high pressure located near
Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across north-central Florida and
into the northeastern gulf. This weather pattern will favor an east-
southeast wind flow over the state through the week and into the
weekend. This east-southeast wind flow combined with plentiful
moisture with PWAT values of 1.7-2.2 inches will support daily
scattered showers and storms developing over the east coast and
interior and traversing westward through the afternoon and evening
hours.

By Monday morning, the upper ridge shifts slightly southward as
upper troughing moves through the Mississippi River Valley. The
surface ridge will also shift slightly southward with the ridge axis
extending through south Florida. This will produce a south-southeast
through south-southwest wind flow over the region for the first half
of next week. This pattern will favor development of showers and
storms earlier in the day along the west coast filling in over the
interior during the afternoon and evening hours. Seasonal
temperatures expected with daytime highs in the upper 80`s along the
coast and low to mid 90`s over the interior and overnight lows in
the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots will prevail
outside of showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms
possible after 19Z, so will hold VCTS at all terminals between 19-
03Z and PROB30 between 19-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern
gulf will produce a predominant east-southeast wind flow over the
eastern gulf waters through the end of the week and into the
weekend. A daily sea breeze can also be expected turning winds
onshore near the west coast each afternoon. With this pattern, the
highest rain and storm chances will be during the afternoon and
evening hours with storms moving from east to west. Outside of
thunderstorms, light winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less
can be expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Abundant moisture and light southeast winds will continue through
the week precluding any fire weather concerns. Daily afternoon and
evening showers and storms expected through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  91  78 /  80  60  70  50
FMY  92  75  92  75 /  80  60  70  40
GIF  92  73  91  74 /  80  40  70  20
SRQ  92  74  90  74 /  80  60  70  60
BKV  94  70  93  71 /  80  50  70  40
SPG  90  77  89  78 /  80  60  70  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Wynn