864
FXUS62 KTBW 261152
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
652 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Currently at the surface, broad high pressure ridging north of
Florida is favoring easterly flow today and Friday, with near normal
temperatures gradually warming up through the start of the weekend.
Some patchy fog and low stratus mainly over the Nature Coast will
lift out by mid morning today. A couple of impulses moving into
Florida aloft could allow for a few showers or sprinkles today and
Friday, but otherwise mainly rain free conditions will persist
through the end of the week.

This weekend, an upper level trough will swing into the southeastern
US, sweeping a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico and into the
Florida Peninsula by late Sunday. This will shift the surface ridge
south on Saturday, turning winds to southeasterly and southerly,
allowing atmospheric moisture to increase. Rain chances will build
late Saturday and into Sunday, with chances for some thunderstorms
along the frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will drop slightly behind the front during the first half of the
week, but will generally remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with light winds out of
the east and northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

High pressure will hold north of the waters today and Friday. The
ridge will settle south on Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across the waters Sunday and Sunday night with winds becoming
southeasterly on Saturday and southerly on Sunday, then turning to
northerly behind the front on Monday. Increasing moisture ahead
of the front will produce showers and storms on Sunday, with
locally gusty winds possible. Otherwise, winds will generally
remain below 15 knots through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  64  81  65 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  83  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  80  64  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
SRQ  80  64  82  65 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  78  58  83  60 /  10   0  10  10
SPG  75  65  78  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson