301
FXUS62 KTBW 241821
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
121 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024


.DISCUSSION...
Upper shortwave in the Gulf of Mexico getting cut off from main
trough in the W Atlantic as ridging is building down from the
Great Lakes into the Deep South though Monday. Surface high
pressure remains settled over the FL Peninsula as temps continue
to slowly warm and moderate. With clear skies, calm winds and
increased low level moisture expect patchy fog to develop
overnight especially in fog prone and inland areas.

Gulf shortwave to move into the W Atlantic by Tuesday with zonal
flow aloft through mid week while weak high pressure remains over
the area for generally benign sensible weather conditions.

By late week, a digging upper trough swings from the N Plains
into New England with an attendant surface low pressure system
well N of the region but associated cold front will move into the
SE U.S. and across the FL Peninsula Friday but moisture and
dynamics remain limited for very low PoPs and QPF. Strong
Canadian high pressure to build into the region bringing another
cold and dry air mass to the state next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
SKC and VFR conditions continue with light onshore winds near the
coast thru 00Z then light/variable winds tonight in Mon morning.
Patchy fog is possible overnight, but uncertainty exists on exact
areas of certain and will leave out of TAFs at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will remain over the region through mid week with
light winds and slight seas. A mainly dry cold front is expected to
move through the region Friday with strong high pressure building
into the region with breezy NW-N winds and elevated choppy seas into
next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over the region has weakened with dry conditions
continuing and a gradual warming trend through mid week as light
winds may produce low daytime dispersion values. Patchy fog is
possible overnights as well. A mainly dry cold front is expected
to move through the region Friday with cold and dry high pressure
building into the region with gusty winds into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  54  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  52  79  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  42  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  58  76  62  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RDavis