169
FXUS62 KMFL 110628
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
As the deep mid-level and upper-level trough swings across the Mid-
Atlantic region today, its attendant cold front will begin to push
southwards through the Florida Peninsula, but likely not arriving
into South Florida before later tonight into Saturday morning. Ahead
of the front, there will be a lack of forcing which will create a
weak flow pattern for today. Moisture availability is not high
(PWATs ~1 inch), but is enough for a few showers to form across the
region. Given the lack of lift forcing, the only mechanism that can
provide that today will be the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze and the
Gulf breeze especially as some convergence occurs among them in the
interior. With the approaching front, showers that form over the
interior would be steered eastward toward the metro areas during the
late afternoon and evening. Significant dry air is present aloft
plus weak mid level lapse rates, so not expecting any thunderstorms
to develop. Taking all of these considerations into account, PoPs
have been increased to generally around 20-30% for interior and east
coast metro areas for this afternoon and evening before the front
arrives tonight.
Behind the front as it passes through and dissipates Saturday
morning, an even more exceptionally dry air mass will settle into
the region with surface high pressure and broad ridging aloft. This
will bring back dry and tranquil weather for Saturday afternoon and
likely beyond.
Temperatures will reach the mid 80s today for most areas except
upper 70s to low 80s along the immediate coastlines and beaches.
Then on Saturday, temperatures decrease by a few degrees in the wake
of the front to around 80 for the entire South Florida region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Fairly quiet weather expected to end the weekend and into much of
next week. On Sunday the trough will exit to our east and upper
level ridging and surface high pressure will build in through early
next week. The next trough and surface front will swing through mid-
week, with little to no moisture associated with the front, but this
will reinforce dry air into the region for the remainder of the
week.
Sunday will be the coolest day of the extended period with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s/60s. We then moderate
next week with highs each day ranging from the low to mid 80s across
the east coast metro, to mid and upper 80s over the interior and SW
FL. Low temps next week will remain in the 50s/60s across South FL,
with the warmest temps being along the Atlantic coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
VFR for all terminals the rest of tonight and through the day on
Friday. Southeasterly winds expected in the afternoon for the
east coast as the Atlantic breeze develops and westerly winds for
KAPF with the Gulf breeze. Winds will gradually veer to a westerly
direction Friday night as a front approaches. There could be a few
showers in the vicinity of east coast terminals later today, but
not high enough to mention at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
Mostly calm conditions return to the local waters to end the week
and heading into the weekend as swell subsides and gentle winds
return for today. Seas will be falling to 2-4 feet in the Atlantic
for today. Over the weekend, cautionary conditions return as winds
will become moderate and seas rise again with a frontal boundary
pushing through the area. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will become possible with the frontal passage this
evening and tonight before dry weather returns in the wake of the
front for Saturday afternoon and the rest of the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
A high risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches and
Broward beaches this morning before subsiding for Broward later this
morning. The high risk will only remain for the Palm beaches the
rest of today as the risk decreases with decreasing swell and winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025
A prolonged period of dry air will settle over South FL this
weekend and into much of next week. This will result in Min RH
values falling at or below critical thresholds each day, which
will lead to elevated fire concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 83 64 82 62 / 30 20 0 0
West Kendall 85 61 82 58 / 30 10 0 0
Opa-Locka 85 63 82 60 / 30 20 0 0
Homestead 83 63 82 60 / 30 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 81 64 80 62 / 30 20 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 83 63 80 62 / 30 20 0 0
Pembroke Pines 86 65 84 62 / 30 20 0 0
West Palm Beach 83 62 80 59 / 20 20 0 0
Boca Raton 84 63 81 61 / 30 20 0 0
Naples 80 64 77 57 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ168.
High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ172.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Redman