680 FXUS62 KMFL 051102 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 702 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Tropical Depression Three currently off of the Northern Florida and Georgia coastline will continue to slowly drift north northwest as today progresses. The weakening frontal boundary that this system has formed along will remain draped off to the north across Northern and Central Florida. This will allow for the surface wind flow to remain southwesterly across the region today. Plenty of deep layer moisture will remain in place across the region today and this is reflective in the latest model soundings which show PWAT values generally ranging between 1.8 and 2.1 inches over most areas through most of the morning and into a good portion of the afternoon. This will be sufficient moisture to support more scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. With moderate southwesterly wind flow in place today, the Gulf breeze will be able to push further inland while the east coast sea breeze gets pinned close to the coast. This will result in convective activity developing along the sea breezes during the mid morning into the early afternoon hours with the highest focus remaining over the interior and east coast through the early evening hours. With plenty of deep layer moisture lingering through most of the day, heavy downpours with enhanced rainfall rates could lead to localized flooding especially in the low lying and poor drainage areas. High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. The second half of the weekend will start to show slow signs of a transition as a mid level ridge pushes westward towards the region as the day progresses. At the surface, TD 3 will continue to pull further away from the region and the frontal boundary that has been draped off to the north for the past several days will gradually wash out. At the same time, the western edge of a surface area of high pressure will gradually push towards South Florida as the day progresses. While surface winds will generally remain southwesterly throughout the day as the front to the north washes out, the pressure gradient across the region will start to relax which will allow for the wind flow to gradually diminsh as the day progresses. As the mid level ridge starts to push over the area, this will cause the mid level steering flow to shift and become more southerly. This will shift the focus of convection up to the Lake Okeechobee region as well Palm Beach County. The chances of strong thunderstorm development will remain low, however, there will be enough instability in place to support an isolated strong thunderstorm or two mainly over the Lake Okeechobee region. With less cloud cover in place compared to the last several days, high temperatures on Sunday will generally be able to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. With the winds diminishing combined with more sunshine, there may be some heat concerns as heat index values could approach 105 over the interior and east coast metro areas on Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 During the early portion of the week, mid level ridging will build over the region and surface high pressure centered in the Atlantic will continue to build westwards towards the area. This will result in a return to more of a typical summertime pattern during this time frame as winds will generally remain light and sea breeze driven. With a lack of any mid to upper level support, convective initiation will be driven by the sea breeze boundaries each day. Shower and thunderstorm development will start out along the east coast in the morning before shifting towards the interior and west coast each afternoon and evening. While conditions will generally not be favorable for strong thunderstorm development early next week, an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out over the interior during peak diurnal heating in the afternoon where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures early next week will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. During the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty in the forecast starts to rise a bit as the latest guidance suite is showing signs of another Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) approaching and moving through the area. While global and ensemble guidance remains in generally good agreement with showing this feature affecting the region during this general time frame, there remains some disagreement in regards to the evolution of this feature. The GFS solutions are a bit faster and more pronounced than the ECMWF solutions. What this means as far as the sensible weather is concerned across the region during this time frame is that this may help to enhance convection and increase the chances of strong to marginally severe thunderstorm development anywhere from later on Tuesday through later on Thursday. The timing and evolution of this feature will be key in determining the exact details in regards to where the strongest storms set up, however, with high pressure remaining in place at the surface keeping a light southeasterly wind flow in place, this would favor the interior and west coast each afternoon. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will remain near climatological normals as they will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 SW winds around 5 kts early this morning increasing to 10-15 kts after 15Z. SCT showers and thunderstorms expected today which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings expected from late morning into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A moderate southwesterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today before becoming more southerly across the Atlantic waters on Sunday. These winds will gradually diminish and become gentle across the local waters early next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 3 feet through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 With a persistent southwesterly wind flow in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will develop along the Collier County beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 91 78 / 60 30 40 10 West Kendall 90 75 91 75 / 60 30 30 10 Opa-Locka 92 78 93 79 / 70 30 40 10 Homestead 90 77 91 77 / 60 30 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 89 78 90 78 / 70 30 40 10 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 91 78 / 70 30 40 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 94 80 / 70 30 40 10 West Palm Beach 90 77 91 76 / 80 30 60 10 Boca Raton 92 77 93 77 / 70 30 50 10 Naples 89 78 90 77 / 70 50 40 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF