963 FXUS62 KMLB 270758 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 358 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US will keep rain chances much below normal through Monday with unusually high temperatures and heat indices. - Heat Advisory conditions for much of east central Florida today and likely for subsequent days. Near Extreme Heat conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. - Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Today-Monday...Strong mid level ridge centered over SE GA this morning will slowly drift westward across the deep South. Resulting subsidence and compressional warming will limit clouds and rain chances and send max temps above normal into the upper 90s over the interior. The record highs at Leesburg (97F and 96F in 1998, respectively) look threatened. A sea breeze will temper highs along the coast but still reach the low to mid 90s. In addition, increasing low level moisture will produce increasingly humid conditions. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from Noon to 7 PM for all but the Treasure Coast for heat indices up to 110. Peak heat indices of 102-107 are forecast for the Treasure coast. Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Monday (and beyond), as heat indices increase further. Near Extreme Heat conditions (heat indices 112-114) are possible on Monday across the north interior, including metro Orlando. PoPs will remain much below normal (25% or less) through Monday. Convection will be generally confined to areas near and west of Orlando. Very warm temps in the mid levels (-4C at 500mb) will significantly limit coverage. There will also be considerable dry air aloft which will contribute to high DCAPE (over 1300 J/kg) so if any storms can develop they could contain gusty winds. Light and variable winds in the morning will become onshore and increase to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Elsewhere, light winds esp over the interior will provide minimal relief from the hot temperatures. Overnight lows will also remain very warm, only reaching the mid to upper 70s. Tue-Sat...Shortwave energy dives southward around the eastern periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily bisects this ridge that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination of slightly decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in moisture should increase rain/storm chances back to more typical coverage (40-60 percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to the heat, but conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any aftn rain/storms. Tue, in particular, looks very hot/humid and may end up being the hottest this week. Model guidance shows the mid level ridge rebuilding over the area late week so max temps look to remain well into the 90s with heat indices 105-110. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Generally favorable boating conditions through the forecast period as high pressure continues to influence the local pattern. Below normal chances for showers and storms through Monday. Then, isolated to scattered convection is expected to return Wed-Thu as ridge slowly weakens. Prevailing onshore steering flow will work to limit offshore-moving showers and storms. Light overnight and early morning flow early this week will become generally southerly into mid-week. Regardless, winds are forecast to become onshore each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15 kts through the period. Seas 1-2 ft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail across the area through Sunday into Sunday night. Ridge aloft and drier airmass will continue to keep shower/storm chances low (~20%) and limited to areas west of Orlando. Have maintained VCSH in for KLEE from 20-24Z, but with rain chances so low no tempo group needed. Winds will be light and variable through this morning, with winds picking up out of the E/NE around 8-10 knots into the afternoon as sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds then become light and variable once again past sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10 MCO 97 77 98 77 / 10 10 20 10 MLB 92 77 92 77 / 10 0 10 0 VRB 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 10 0 LEE 97 79 97 79 / 20 10 20 10 SFB 97 78 99 78 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 98 78 99 78 / 10 0 20 10 FPR 91 73 91 73 / 10 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Weitlich