963
FXUS62 KMLB 270758
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

- Strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US will keep
  rain chances much below normal through Monday with unusually
  high temperatures and heat indices.

- Heat Advisory conditions for much of east central Florida today
  and likely for subsequent days. Near Extreme Heat conditions
  possible Monday and Tuesday.

- Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety
  actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat
  exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay
  informed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Today-Monday...Strong mid level ridge centered over SE GA this
morning will slowly drift westward across the deep South.
Resulting subsidence and compressional warming will limit clouds
and rain chances and send max temps above normal into the upper
90s over the interior. The record highs at Leesburg (97F and 96F
in 1998, respectively) look threatened. A sea breeze will temper
highs along the coast but still reach the low to mid 90s. In
addition, increasing low level moisture will produce increasingly
humid conditions. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from Noon to
7 PM for all but the Treasure Coast for heat indices up to 110.
Peak heat indices of 102-107 are forecast for the Treasure coast.
Additional Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Monday (and
beyond), as heat indices increase further. Near Extreme Heat
conditions (heat indices 112-114) are possible on Monday across
the north interior, including metro Orlando.

PoPs will remain much below normal (25% or less) through Monday.
Convection will be generally confined to areas near and west of
Orlando. Very warm temps in the mid levels (-4C at 500mb) will
significantly limit coverage. There will also be considerable dry
air aloft which will contribute to high DCAPE (over 1300 J/kg) so
if any storms can develop they could contain gusty winds. Light
and variable winds in the morning will become onshore and increase
to around 10 mph behind the sea breeze. Elsewhere, light winds
esp over the interior will provide minimal relief from the hot
temperatures. Overnight lows will also remain very warm, only
reaching the mid to upper 70s.

Tue-Sat...Shortwave energy dives southward around the eastern
periphery of the upper ridge and temporarily bisects this ridge
that extends into the SW Atlc. The combination of slightly
decreasing heights/subsidence and some increase in moisture should
increase rain/storm chances back to more typical coverage (40-60
percent) each aftn. This will bring some relief to the heat, but
conditions will remain hot and humid prior to any aftn
rain/storms. Tue, in particular, looks very hot/humid and may
end up being the hottest this week. Model guidance shows the mid
level ridge rebuilding over the area late week so max temps look
to remain well into the 90s with heat indices 105-110.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through the forecast period
as high pressure continues to influence the local pattern. Below
normal chances for showers and storms through Monday. Then,
isolated to scattered convection is expected to return Wed-Thu as
ridge slowly weakens. Prevailing onshore steering flow will work
to limit offshore-moving showers and storms. Light overnight and
early morning flow early this week will become generally southerly
into mid-week. Regardless, winds are forecast to become onshore
each afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under
15 kts through the period. Seas 1-2 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions will largely prevail across the area through Sunday
into Sunday night. Ridge aloft and drier airmass will continue to
keep shower/storm chances low (~20%) and limited to areas west of
Orlando. Have maintained VCSH in for KLEE from 20-24Z, but with
rain chances so low no tempo group needed. Winds will be light and
variable through this morning, with winds picking up out of the
E/NE around 8-10 knots into the afternoon as sea breeze develops
and moves inland. Winds then become light and variable once again
past sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  95  77 /  10   0  10  10
MCO  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  10
MLB  92  77  92  77 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  97  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  97  78  99  78 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  98  78  99  78 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  91  73  91  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Weitlich