673 FXUS61 KPHI 041729 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 129 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will build into the region on today and remain in control through the weekend, providing seasonable temperatures and tranquil weather conditions. Warmer, more humid, and unsettled conditions will return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front has moved off the coast early this morning, giving way to clear skies and a noticeably drier airmass filtering into the region. A picture-perfect summer day is on tap for Independence Day, with wall-to-wall sunshine and seasonable warmth courtesy of high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across much of the region, with 70s in the Poconos. Dew points falling into the 50s will make for comfortably low humidity, and light northwest winds around 5-10 mph will add to the overall pleasant conditions. High pressure continues to build eastward, settling directly over the area tonight. With skies clear and dry conditions, Mother Nature won`t be setting off any fireworks, so it`s shaping up to be a beautiful evening for those holiday festivities. An ideal radiational cooling set-up will allow temperatures to dip into the mid 50s to mid 60s overnight with the coolest readings in the typical rural and outlying spots. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry and seasonable weather conditions expected for the rest of the holiday weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s under mostly clear skies as high pressure will be in place. With mostly weak flow aloft and high pressure at the surface, the sensible weather conditions should be fairly pleasant for the weekend and dew points in the mid 60s should lead to warm but comfortable conditions rather than the high humidity that impacted the region last week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure drifts offshore to begin the workweek and guidance is suggesting the that the disturbance that NHC is currently highlighting may have an impact over the southern portion of the region. Rain would be the primary impact from any disturbance as high winds are not anticipated. By the middle of the week the larger scale troughing starts to develop and we`ll see several waves that start to develop. Diurnal showers should develop as PWAT`s increase to 1.8-2.1. With the heating during the day, surface based instability will increase through the daylight hours and so the only thing missing will be the triggers. Anticipate their should be sufficient surface convergence to trigger convection daily with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe convection can`t be ruled out however the winds aloft suggest we`ll see isolated showers rather than organized convection. Expect temperatures to start trending slightly above normal early next week as well, though they should moderate some toward the middle of the week. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s, along with increasing humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR & SKC. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Sea breeze possible at KACY, which may cause winds to become southerly in the afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR & SKC. North-northwest winds around 5 kt or less, becoming variable/calm at times. High confidence. Saturday...VFR with some high clouds. Light winds in the morning becoming south-southwesterly around 5-10 knots in the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather. Monday and Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. North-northwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning will become southerly around 5-10 kt this afternoon, and eventually becoming southwest around 5-10 kt tonight. Seas of 2-3 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...No marine hazards expected. Rip Currents... For Today, northerly winds around 10 mph in the morning will become southeasterly around 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1-2 feet with a SSE swell around 2 feet and a 6-8 second period. As a result, maintained a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For Saturday, northeasterly winds around 5 mph in the morning will become southeasterly around 10 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights of 1-2 feet with a SSE swell around 2 feet and a 5-7 second period. As a result, maintained a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJL/Staarmann NEAR TERM...DeSilva SHORT TERM...Deal/MJL/Staarmann LONG TERM...Deal/MJL/Staarmann AVIATION...AKL/Deal/DeSilva MARINE...Deal/DeSilva