939 FXUS61 KPHI 081039 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 639 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in north of the region through Sunday as an areas of low pressure moves eastward across Virginia and the Delmarva Sunday night through Monday morning. A cold front passes across the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. Much warmer and drier weather dominated by high pressure will settle over the area Wednesday through Friday. A cold front may approach the area from the north by early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front has stalled out just to our south across southern Delmarva early this morning. Meanwhile a new area of low pressure is taking shape across the midwestern states while to our north, high pressure is centered over Quebec. As we get into Sunday our area will be north of the front in a stable easterly flow between the high to our north and the low to our south as it pushes eastward toward Virginia. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop to the north of the front by late morning and continue throughout much of the afternoon. Deeper surface-based convection will remain south of the front, which at this time should stay well south and west of our region. Expect highs Sunday generally in the low to mid 70s under a mainly cloudy sky. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually taper off with time by later Sunday evening into the overnight as surface ridging builds in from the north and east. It will remain mostly cloudy with a continuing east to northeast flow and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. The cloud deck will be quite low with the continuing marine influence and there could also be some patchy fog and drizzle around. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change is expected as we head into the day Monday. The SW extent of surface ridging emanating from an area of high pressure that will be centered over the Canadian Maritimes by this time will remain over the area with a continuing onshore flow and associated marine stratus deck. This will keep it mostly cloudy with highs once again in the low to mid 70s. While no significant rainfall is expected there may continue to be some spotty light showers and patchy drizzle around. The weather gets a bit more active again Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west Monday night and moves through the area on Tuesday. This will bring another round of showers and storms through the area...especially overnight Monday night into the first part of Tuesday. This all said, the instability will be low, which should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours. QPF amounts during this period should generally range from one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Lows Monday night should generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s with highs Tuesday generally ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Tuesday night should see similar if not slightly cooler overnight lows compared to Monday night as skies start to clear out. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in for wednesday and Thursday bringing sunshine with dry weather and another warming trend. Highs Wednesday look to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with highs by Thursday reaching the upper 80s to near 90 for many areas. Humidity levels will be low Wednesday before starting to creep up a bit on Thursday. As we get towards the very end of the week into next weekend, another cold front will start to push southward towards the area bringing a return to chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this point the best chance of precipitation looks to be Saturday as there may be an area of low pressure that develops along the front as it may tend to stall near the area. Friday looks to be another day with highs well into the 80s to around 90 with temperatures starting to cool for Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...CIGs lower to MVFR, then IFR in the 15Z-18Z time frame, but earlier at KMIV/KACY. VSBY restrictions in RA possible this afternoon, but RA should hold off until towards evening. NE-E winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...IFR/LIFR in stratus. RA and isolated TSRA in the evening. E winds around 5 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Monday through Monday night...IFR conds Monday morning give way to MVFR, then possibly VFR late. IFR conds redevelop Monday night with RA late. Tuesday through Tuesday night...IFR in SHRA/TSRA. Conds improve to VFR Tuesday night. Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. NSW. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Monday. Winds become northeast around 10-15 knots for Sunday and then diminish slightly for Sunday night and Monday. Generally expect seas around 3 to 4 feet through this period. Outlook... Generally expect sub Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue through most of this period except late Tuesday into Tuesday night seas may approach 5 feet. Also expect some showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters on Tuesday. Rip Currents... For Sunday, winds will be from the E/NE around 10 mph with a medium period swell of around 7 seconds and wave heights in the surf zone around 2 to 3 feet. There will also be some longer period wave groups as well. For these reasons, a MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue. Little overall change will occur into Monday except we`ll be within two days of the June 11 Full Moon. For these reasons a MODERATE risk of rip currents looks to continue. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons AVIATION...MPS MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Franklin