907 FXUS61 KPHI 042336 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 736 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will remain anchored offshore through early Thursday. A cold front will approach the area later on Thursday and Friday, before tracking across the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in later on Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through the region on Tuesday. Another cold front will then track through the forecast area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Uneventful weather during the near term with high pressure well offshore and subsidence within the local region. The nearest disturbance is a cold front back across the upper Great Lakes, however a weak coastal system is also taking shape along the Carolina coast. The front will creep slowly east tonight and Thursday, and the coastal system slowly north along the coast into Thursday as well. Fair weather is expected tonight and all of Thursday. One minor exception, a slight chance of a shower across the Southern Poconos very late Thursday afternoon. Unlike the past couple days, high cloud cover from the approaching systems will spread into the area late tonight and especially by Thursday afternoon. Considerable cirrus coverage can be anticipated by Thursday afternoon and evening as a result. Low temps tonight will be in the low 60s, so right around to slightly above normal. Highs Thursday will be well above normal with mid/upper 80s across most spots. Some stations within the area, especially from the Philly metro and north/west, could experience their first 90 degree day of the year. The increasing high clouds will be a limiting factor on this though, which should be thickest toward the south across the coastal plain. Thus, places in northern NJ and eastern PA could end up a few degrees warmer than the typical warmer areas of the Philly metro, southern NJ, and Delmarva. Cooler at the shore with upper 60s/low 70s expected. The humidity will be more noticeable Thursday with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s, though some mixing out may occur later in the day. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... With high pressure shifting well out to sea on Thursday night, two low pressure systems will be allowed to approach the region. One from the west. The other from the south. The cold front associated with the system approaching from the west does look to get close enough Thursday night that we could see some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm (20% or less), mainly across northeast PA and northwest NJ, before the front stalls just to the north and west of the region. The cold front will inch closer on Friday. Its progress still looks to be slow with little upper-level support and the continued presence of the coastal surface low just south of the region. Most forecast models have the coastal low moving out to sea Friday night in the waking of the departing high. With the cold front coming in from the west and being a bit closer, we`re expecting more showers to track into the forecast area, possibly down to the 95 on Friday afternoon and night. PWAT values will start creeping up across the region too, topping out between 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, there will be potential for a heavy shower or downpour. Across the Delmarva and maybe even Cape May county, we can`t rule out a stray shower as the southern coastal low makes it`s way offshore. By Saturday, with an upper level trough beginning to deepen to our west and the coastal low moving further offshore, the cold front will finally have the support to begin to move across the area, and lead to increasing chances of precipitation. There is some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid-level winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so shear is not expected to be overly strong. However, there could be a few isolated strong storms. Our zones north and west are highlighted in the ERO (Marginal). High temperatures on Friday will mainly top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. With it being unsettled on Saturday as the cold front moves through, highs will run in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Delmarva could still see lower 80s. Behind the cold front on Sunday, our temperatures will be similar to Saturday, although we`ll see more sun. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s all three nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The front is forecast to stall to our south on Sunday as high pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions later Sunday into early Monday. Later Monday and into Tuesday, said front will push north as a warm front. Yesterday, it looked like the front would remain to our south. Today, it looks like it will track completely through the region. After the warm front tracks north, a cold front is forecast to then push through on Wednesday. As a result of the warm and cold fronts, showers and thunderstorms could pop all three days. Temperatures throughout the period look to be within a few degrees of normal for early June. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s and lows will mainly be in the upper 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR with increasing cirrus late. South to southwest winds 5-10 kts early, becoming 5 kts or less by 06Z. High confidence. Thursday...VFR expected. BKN to OVC cirrus by afternoon. Light winds becoming south to southwest around 10 knots by 18Z. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday night...Mainly VFR conditions expected. There`s a small chance (10-20%) a shower or thunderstorm gets into KABE or KRDG. Friday-Saturday...There`s a 30 to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and 50 to 80% on Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions can be expected in the showers and thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... High pressure remains well offshore tonight and Thursday. A general South to Southwest flow will continue through the period. Fair weather is expected. Seas will be mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight and Thursday on the ocean and 1 to 2 ft for Delaware Bay. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. However, winds will gust to around 15-20 knots at times and seas will increase to 3-4 feet. Friday night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Shower and storms will be possible Saturday, which may lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5 feet. Sunday and Monday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Rip Currents... There will continue to be a LOW risk of rip currents through Friday. For Thursday, expect south to southwest winds around 10-15 mph and breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. For Friday, similar conditions can be expected as south to southeast winds will be around 5-10 mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo NEAR TERM...OHara/Staarmann SHORT TERM...Kruzdlo LONG TERM...Kruzdlo AVIATION...Kruzdlo/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...Guzzo/Kruzdlo/OHara