205 FXUS61 KPHI 022044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 444 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts south of the area tonight, then move offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic region Tuesday and remain offshore through Thursday. A cold front tries to approach the area Thursday into Friday, before moving across the area Saturday. High pressure briefly builds in later Sunday, before a potential coastal low affects the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of the surface high will gradually shift southeastward over the next day or so, but remain the dominant feature in our weather. Thus, expect tranquil conditions to continue through Tuesday. With this shift, as winds become more southwesterly, the warming trend will kick off tomorrow with highs tomorrow ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. The smoke from western wildfires will likely stay over the region throughout this period. There is a chance that the smoke could mix closer to the ground, but low confidence on that. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain offshore of the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday night through Thursday, before beginning to shift out to sea Thursday night into Friday. Dry weather is expected Wednesday night through much of Thursday. However, as a cold front approaches and stalls to our north later Thursday through Friday and Friday night, multiple waves will move along the boundary while several disturbances aloft move across the northeast as well. This will help create some showers and possible thunderstorms later Thursday through Friday night. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday are forecast to be well above normal, possible reaching 90+ degrees for some areas on Thursday. The combination of the warm temperatures and increasing humidity will push heat index values to 90-95 degrees as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Saturday, the cold front will begin to move across the area, which will lead to increasing changes of precipitation. There is some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid level winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so shear is not expected overly strong. However, there could be a few isolated strong storms. The front is forecast to stall to our south Sunday as high pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions later Sunday into Sunday night. However, unsettled weather could return early next week as a coastal low may impact the region. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through tonight...VFR. Winds mostly favoring NW and SW, but could go light and variable at times. Tuesday...Prevailing VFR, but there is low chance (10%) that smoke from western wildfires will mix closer to the ground resulting in some MVFR visibilities. Winds light and variable but eventually favoring a southerly or southeasterly direction. Outlook... Wednesday night...VFR expected. Thursday-Thursday night...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers for northeast Pennsylvania/northern New Jersey. Friday-Saturday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms which may lead to lower conditions. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. Outlook... Wednesday night-Saturday...Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times, and seas increase to 3-4 feet at times. Shower and storms will be possible Friday into Saturday, which may lead to locally higher winds and waves. Rip Currents... For Tuesday...West winds around 5-10 mph in the morning, will become southerly in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For Wednesday...South winds around 10-15 mph, breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Robertson NEAR TERM...Johnson SHORT TERM...Robertson LONG TERM...Robertson AVIATION...Johnson/Robertson MARINE...DeSilva/Johnson/Robertson