865
FXUS61 KPHI 100647
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
247 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday. High pressure
builds in for Wednesday, keeping things quiet and warm for Wednesday
and Thursday. A cold front moves in from the north later on Friday,
stalling out near or over the area for the weekend. Several waves of
low pressure ride along the front bringing unsettled weather for the
weekend and start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of early this morning, a warm front was located over Delmarva
extending eastward off the coast with a cold front extending from
western Maryland south and westward. This is putting SE PA right
near the triple point of a developing wave and there`s an associated
area of showers and thunderstorms moving into our eastern PA zones.
Meanwhile a secondary cold front was located farther west over
eastern Ohio with an associated area of showers ahead of it over
western PA.

As we go through the predawn hours, expect showers/storms with the
leading wave to begin moving into our eastern PA zones and then
likely reaching the I-95 corridor between 6-8am. Severe weather does
not appear likely this morning but PWATs are increasing to over 1.5
inches and there has been a history of flooding with these storms
over portions of MD into PA. 3 hr FFG is generally 2 to 3 inches
over most of our eastern PA zones and it`s not out of the question
that some localized amounts could get into this range and produce
flooding. The best chances for this would be over Berks County north
and east into the Lehigh Valley into Carbon and Monroe Counties. Low
lying and poor drainage areas will be the most susceptible.
Otherwise the overnight period will be warm and muggy with some
areas of fog and mist around.

As we head into the day Tuesday, showers and storms move into the
urban corridor and points S/E through the first part of the morning
with a continuing threat for some localized flooding...once again,
especially for low lying, poor drainage, as well as urban areas.
This leading wave of showers/storms then moves off the coast by
around midday. Beyond this time the main cold front pushes through
the area in the afternoon and while this could produce some
additional showers/storms, they look to be more isolated to
scattered in nature...as in many or even most places won`t see them.
Instability will be increasing with ML CAPE around 500-1000 j/kg and
deep layer shear looks to be quite strong as well. So it`s possible
that any storms that do develop could be severe it`s really the
overall coverage of storms that remains in question but is trending
down with time. But the upshot of all this is that we`re not
expecting widespread severe weather. Highest POPs for the afternoon
still look to be areas near and south/east of the urban corridor.
Most areas look to see highs getting into the low 80s as partial
sunshine develops by the afternoon. It will remain muggy through the
early afternoon before dew points and humidity levels start to fall
off behind the cold front by later in the day.

For Tuesday night, any lingering showers/storms quickly diminish in
the early evening with otherwise clearing skies and falling temps
and dew points as drier air works in from the west. Lows by
Wednesday morning look to range from the 50s north to the low to mid
60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure building into our south will bring mainly dry weather
and warming conditions as we head through the Wednesday into
Thursday time frame. Wednesday will be warm with sunshine and
comfortable humidity levels. Expect highs generally in the low to
mid 80s with west to SW winds around 10 mph. This will be followed
by continuing clear skies and tranquil conditions for Wednesday
night with lows mainly in the 60s. We go even warmer on Thursday,
where areas around the I-95 corridor as well as interior southern NJ
likely seeing highs around 90, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere. PHL
has not recored a 90 degree day yet, which the first one typically
comes in May. A shortwave tries to dive in on Thursday, which could
touch off a few showers/isolated thunderstorms in the Poconos, but
nothing of significance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front sags down from the north on Friday afternoon, stalling
out over the area for the weekend. Several waves of low pressure
will ride along the front, with periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected through the long term. Model guidance tends
to struggle with setups like these, and this case is no different.
Not expecting a weekend washout, but rather periods of rain with a
few thunderstorms mixed in and mostly cloudy skies outside of any
precipitation. While Friday will be warm with highs in the mid to
upper 80s ahead of the front, temperatures cool off over the
weekend. Generally expect highs in the 70s to low 80s for the
Saturday through Monday period. Currently not expecting any hydro or
severe issues at this time for the weekend as the more significant
instability should be to our south. All in all, just looks like
another weekend featuring rain.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of overnight...Generally expect IFR to LIFR conditions due
to low stratus. There will also be some fog, mist, and drizzle
around. Towards 7z and beyond, showers/storms will start moving
into the area and likely affect RDG and ABE with some thunder so
this is mentioned in TAF. For the I-95 TAF sites and points S/E,
this should hold off until after 10z. Winds generally E to SE
around 5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...IFR conditions with periods of LIFR remaining
possible during the early morning, with ceilings gradually
improving from west to east. Showers will be most likely between
10-16Z, with embedded thunder remaining possible, especially
for the I-95 terminals. Most terminals should improve to MVFR by
around 16z or so and then VFR by mid afternoon. Visibility
looks to improve at most terminals through the morning. KMIV and
KACY may continue to see visibility restrictions into the
early afternoon. Light east wind becoming west/northwest at
5-10 kt by the afternoon. Expect some gusts in the afternoon
around 15-20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR. Winds generally out of the west around 5
knots. High confidence.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday Night...VFR. No significant weather.


Friday...VFR to start but restrictions possible later in the day as
a cold front approaches with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving in.

Friday Night through Saturday...Restrictions likely (60-70%)
at times with low clouds and showers around.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight...A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remain in effect until 6
AM for visibility dropping to 1 NM or less for the New Jersey
ocean waters. There will also be some showers/storms over the
waters Tuesday, mainly in the morning. These could produce
locally strong winds over 34 knots.

Tuesday night...No marine headlines expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday...South-southwest winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking
wave heights of 1-3 feet with a 3-4 foot 6-7 second period swell
from the east. A MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents
continues for Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May County beaches,
whereas a LOW risk for rip currents is in place for Monmouth
County and Delaware Beaches due to winds blowing offshore. We`ll
also be within 2 days of the Full Moon phase, which may cause
stronger than normal rip currents under these conditions.

For Wednesday...West-southeast winds around 10-15 mph. Breaking
wave heights of 1-3 feet with a 3 foot 6-7 second period from
the east to east-northeast. A MODERATE risk for dangerous rip
currents continues for Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May County
beaches, whereas a LOW risk for rip currents is in place for
Monmouth County and Delaware Beaches due to winds blowing
offshore. We`ll be within 1 day of the Full Moon phase, which
may cause stronger than normal rip currents under these
conditions.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ450>453.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/Hoeflich