003 FXUS61 KPHI 041029 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 629 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored offshore through early Thursday. A cold front will approach the area later on Thursday and Friday, before tracking across the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in later on Sunday into Monday. A warm front will approach the forecast area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure centered off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina will continue to slowly drift eastward through tonight. With the continued influence of the high, no rain is forecast through the period and subsidence will inhibit any afternoon clouds to form. The elevated smoke and haze will continue today but impacts at the surface should continue to remain minimal. As warm air advection continues today with south-southwesterly flow, high temperatures this afternoon look to be a few degrees warmer still than on Tuesday, in the mid to upper 80s for most locations and in the 70s along the coast. A mild night is in store for much of the area with lows mainly in the low 60s. An increase in cloud coverage is expected overnight though as the high starts to drift far enough out to sea to allow cirrus clouds to encroach on the area as a developing low riding along the southeastern U.S. coast pushes northward. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure shifts well out to sea on Thursday and two low pressure systems begin to approach the region. However, dry weather is expected to continue through much of the day. The first system is the low continuing to move northward along the East Coast of the United States with the second system approaching the region from the west. The high looks to hold strong enough to keep the two systems at bay and the region mostly dry. However, a partly to mostly cloudy day is expected due to the relative proximity of the two systems. As a result, temperatures for Thursday continue to be forecast a touch cooler than previously, with highs on Thursday looking to potentially fall just short of 90 degrees. It will still be quite warm though, with highs again in the mid to upper 80s. As we get later in the day Thursday, the cold front associated with the system approaching from the west does look to get close enough that we could see some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast PA and northwest NJ, before the front stalls just to the north and west of the region. With high pressure fully offshore, the cold front will inch closer on Friday though its progress looks to be impeded with little upper-level support and the continued presence of the coastal surface low now just south of the region. Most forecast models, have the coastal low moving out to sea Friday night in the waking of the departing high. With this action, we`re expecting more showers to track into the forecast area, possibly down to the 95 with chances increasing Friday night as the cold front moves closer. PWAT values will start creeping up across the region too, topping out between 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, there will be potential for a heavy shower or downpour. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the remainder of the period. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s with highs on Friday mainly in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By Saturday, with an upper level trough beginning to deepen to our west and the coastal low moving further offshore, the cold front will finally have the support to begin to move across the area, and lead to increasing chances of precipitation. There is some instability forecast with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, and PW values increase to 1.5-2.0 inches. So there will be the potential for thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours. Mid level winds are forecast to be fairly weak, 40-50 knots or less, so shear is not expected to be overly strong. However, there could be a few isolated strong storms. The front is forecast to stall to our south Sunday as high pressure builds to our north, possibly leading to dry conditions later Sunday into early Monday. Later Monday and into Tuesday, said front will inch north as a warm front. Showers and Thunderstorms will pop again as a result. Temperatures throughout the period look to be within a few degrees of normal for early June. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s and lows will mainly be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR. South-southwest winds around 10 knots. Some elevated smoke, particularly this morning, but no visibility restrictions expected for any terminals. High confidence. Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Winds less than 5 knots, favoring a south-southwesterly direction. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday-Thursday night...Prevailing VFR conditions expected. A very low chance (15% or less) a shower or thunderstorm gets into KABE or KRDG. Friday-Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible, particularly Friday night into Saturday. A chance (35-50%) on Friday of showers and thunderstorms then showers becoming likely (60-70%) by Saturday with a continued chance for thunderstorms, potentially resulting in lower conditions at times. Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions but a slight chance (15-25%) for showers or a thunderstorm remains at this time. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. South- southwesterly winds around 10 kts though a few gusts up to 20 knots are possible, particularly this evening. Otherwise, seas around 2-3 feet with fair weather. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. However, winds will gust around 20 knots at times, particularly on Thursday, and seas will increase to 3-4 feet. Friday Night and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Shower and storms will be possible Friday into Saturday, which may lead to locally higher winds and waves. Seas build to 3-5 feet. Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Rip Currents... There will continue to be a LOW risk of rip currents through Thursday. For today, expect south winds around 10-15 mph and breaking waves around 1-2 feet with a period of 7-8 seconds. For Thursday, similar conditions can be expected as south to southwest winds will be around 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL NEAR TERM...AKL SHORT TERM...AKL LONG TERM...AKL AVIATION...AKL MARINE...AKL/MPS