731 FXUS61 KPHI 312254 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 654 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front then sweeps across our area through the evening. High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley later Sunday then arrives in our area later Monday through Wednesday. A cold front may move into the area towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 654 PM...An unseasonably deep area of low pressure will continue to lift northward away from the area through tonight. Its trailing cold front will continue to push offshore through this evening with any left over showers/storms quickly diminishing within the next hour or two. Following the front, clouds will decrease and cooler air will sweep over the region. Tonight`s lows will drop into the 40s regionwide. These lows will be more normal for mid April than for early June. Winds will be West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph overnight. Sunday will feature dry weather with comfortable temperatures across the area. For the start of June, high temperatures will reach upper 60s to low 70s across the area. These readings are still cool for the start of summer, but the airmass will be dry and winds will not be that gusty. West winds will average 10 to 15 mph and there may be a few gusts to 20 mph at times. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure gradually continues building eastward Sunday night through Monday night, ending up almost due south of us by early Tuesday. This will promote generally dry conditions, but with upper trough lingering overhead, will probably see some clouds at times, especially during the afternoon hours. GFS actually tries to generate some showers Monday night with a weak passing disturbance aloft, but for now have mostly discounted it. With more of a westerly flow after Sunday night, a slow warming trend will get underway. Thus, while Sunday night we`ll again see lows in the 40s for many, 50s warmest spots, most areas should stay in the 50s Monday night. In between, Monday`s highs should return solidly into the 70s for most, with even the high Poconos and shore getting close. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge builds across the region through much of the long term, with surface high pressure taking a `Bermuda` position off the coast. Thus, we should see substantial warming, and in fact might get our first 90-degree day by later in the week. Otherwise, a dry pattern is in store for most of the long term as well. Highs start out in the low-mid 80s Tuesday, reach the upper 80s Wednesday, then really flirt with 90 Thursday before possibly dropping back a bit Friday with a cold front possibly slipping south into the area. Lows will be near 60 for many Tuesday night, elevate into the mid 60s Wednesday night and may stay around 70 Thursday night as the front approaches. The aforementioned front may bring some showers and t-storms with it, but right now only have some slight chance to relatively low chance POPs. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight... Any lingering showers and gusty winds across the area will diminish by 01Z/02Z and skies will return to VFR and become partly cloudy. Winds will remain West to Northwest at 5 to 10 knots. Sunday... VFR expected. Mostly clear. West winds increasing by mid morning to 10-15 kts with a few gusts around 20-25 kts. Outlook... Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... The SCA flag will continue tonight as low pressure moves away from the area and the winds slowly diminish. It`s possible that the timing of the SCA may be too long across Delaware Bay and the southern waters, but we`ll monitor it thru the evening. Winds will become gusty for a few hours following the frontal passage this evening. Sunday...sub-SCA with fair weather. Outlook... SCA flag may need to be extended into Sunday for the northern waters but will not last all day. Fair. Sunday night thru Wednesday...sub-SCA with fair weather. Rip Currents... For Sunday...West-southwest winds around 10-15 mph with breaking waves around 1-2 feet and a period of 6-7 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For Monday...West winds around 5-10 mph in the morning will become southerly in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet and a period of 6-7 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .HYDROLOGY... We continue to watch several streams and rivers which are either still rising slowly, or running high. You can also visit our website for the latest warnings: weather.gov/phi To stay on top of the flooding potential, visit the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) website: water.noaa.gov To view river observations and our forecasts in table form, check out our dashboard: weather.gov/phi/hydrodashboard If you want to see the flooding threat in terms of probabilities, check out this Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast link: weather.gov/erh/mmefs && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara MARINE...DeSilva/OHara HYDROLOGY...