062
FXUS61 KOKX 141402
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing in from the south weakens through the day. A
cold front moves through tonight into Tuesday morning, with a
secondary front passing through Tuesday night. High pressure starts
to gradually build in starting Wednesday. High pressure passes to
the south Thursday and pushes offshore Thursday night. Another
frontal system approaches the region Friday and affects from Friday
night through Saturday night. High pressure returns for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The broken line of showers and sprinkles has continued to
progress east. Much of the activity is not reaching the ground
with reflectivity returns mainly due to some rain showers aloft.
However some reporting station over Eastern PA and Western NJ
have reported a few sprinkles and very light shower activity
while bases remain high, at 8 to 10 kft. Thus have added
scattered sprinkle mention into a portion of the early
afternoon. Otherwise no changes / adjustments. This activity as
it runs into ridging should more or less dissipate as it pivots
through with just a some sprinkles or a very light shower or
two. Thus did not adjust PoPs as measurable rain is still not
anticipated.

With ridging at the surface and aloft we will still have a good
deal of mid and high level clouds around. As far as temps, it
will feel more like spring with temperatures back up in the
middle to upper 60s (a few degrees warmer than what is normal
for mid April) and light winds.

Given previous cool bias from the NBM on similar spring regimes,
went closer to the NBM 90th percentile. Additionally, how
thick/expansive any cloud cover ends up being will likely affect
the highs a few degrees in either direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights start lowering tonight as an upper level low approaches. An
associated parent surface low will be tracking through southern
Canada, with a cold front draped down into the eastern US. As this
front approaches it looks to become occluded to our north with the
potential for the triple point to pass through the area. This is
evident in gradients in model moisture fields. This frontal system
will spark severe weather in the Ohio Valley today, but by the time
this activity gets to our area it will likely be just rain showers.
This is due to the time of day and lack of any significant
instability. There is however very little elevated CAPE, so a rumble
of thunder can not be completely ruled out.

Heights continue lowering as the mid and upper level trough axis
gets closer on Tuesday. With cooling aloft, instability increases
through the day. This set up usually leads to isolated to scattered
shower activity and the CAMs are agreeing with that. Looking at
model soundings, steep lapse rates and plenty of dry air below
the cloud layer can be seen. This suggests that any stronger
showers could bring down gusty winds and potentially produce graupel.
A rumble of thunder can also not be ruled out, but with low
confidence have continued to leave it out of the forecast for
now. Outside of gusty winds from showers, synoptically the
sustained winds and gusts increase through the day on Tuesday.
Expecting gusts up to 30 go 35 mph.

High pressure starts to gradually build in on Wednesday. With the
colder airmass over the region, highs look to only reach the low
50s. Gusty winds are expected through the afternoon before they
start to decrease.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue for Thursday as an upper level east of the
area continues to slowly moves east while a building ridge over the
Great Lakes region and southern Canada moves toward the area. At the
surface, high pressure to the west of the region slides southwest
and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday night which allows a
warm front to lift north Friday night. This will be be the next
chance for precipitation. However, only light amounts of rain for
Friday night are expected at this time. The associated cold front is
expected to move through on Saturday night and high pressure builds
in behind it for Sunday.

With a building ridge moving into the region Thursday and a warm
front lifting north Friday night, a warming trend through the period
is expected. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Thursday will rise
into the 60s and 70s by Saturday for most areas. Cooler conditions
are expected along coastal areas. Cold air advection after the
passage of the cold front will bring temperatures back down to more
seasonable levels for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds from the west. A cold front moves
through tonight.

VFR conditions expected through the day today. MVFR to IFR
conditions expected tonight (after 06Z) associated with the cold
front. Rain will start around around 03Z for metro terminals.

W winds less than 10 kt should gradually shift to the SW by
later this morning, and increase to around 10 kt (10 to 15 kt
for KJFK). Winds shift more to the S later this afternoon as
sea breezes affect most terminals. KEWR and KTEB may shift more
to the SE late this afternoon and early this evening.




 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Late day, after 20Z, sea breeze
possible. KTEB and KEWR may shift more to the SE late this
afternoon and evening

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chance of showers at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Winds ramp
up Tuesday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
all waters starting at 2PM Tuesday and going through 10AM Wednesday
(and will likely need to be extended through Wednesday). Wind gusts
are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on all waters. There may be a
brief lull for a few hours around 11PM Tuesday night before winds
ramp back up. Additionally, isolated 35 to 40 kt gusts can not
be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, specifically under any
convective showers that could mix down higher gusts.

As previously mentioned, the SCA will likely need to be extended
through Wednesday. Gusts finally lower Wednesday night, with the
potential for some 5 ft seas lingering in the eastern ocean zone
through the night.

Waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday night
with high pressure in control. Winds will remain below 25 kt through
Friday, but may approach 25 kt by late Friday night on the ocean
waters as a frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT