198 FXUS61 KBOX 071126 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 726 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm days and comfortably cool nights through Saturday. Warming trend begins this weekend with 90 degree heat possible Sunday followed by more widespread 90s next week with moderate humidity levels. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Dry with less smoke and haze, especially E * Temps slightly below normal Isolated showers have developed early this morning over the Berkshires as a weak shortwave is tapping into marginal instability where CAPES up to 500 J/Kg. These showers will dissipate before daybreak as the shortwave moves to the east. High pres builds east of New Eng today with persistent easterly flow which will push smoke further westward. Still some smoke aloft across western New Eng on HRRR vertically integrated smoke product which will produce some hazy/milky skies, but less than yesterday. Otherwise, high clouds in the morning lift out with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. Still a low risk of a spot shower this afternoon in western MA where limited instability but better chance will be to the NW. Not much change in low level temp field so expect highs mid 70s to around 80, coolest east coastal MA. Dewpoints in the 50s so comfortable humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and comfortably cool tonight * Mostly sunny and seasonably warm Friday No change to the overall pattern with high pres remaining in control through Fri, building east of New Eng with ridging extending westward across SNE. Expect mostly clear skies tonight with some high clouds, and mostly sunny skies Fri. Radiational cooling will bring low temps into the 50s tonight with nice recovery on Fri as highs should reach 80 to 85. However, modest low level warming will be tempered by continued onshore flow near the coast, with high mostly upper 70s here. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry and warm Saturday. Temps near or slightly above normal * Warming trend Sunday followed by building heat Mon-Wed with temps reaching into the 90s with moderate humidity levels. Heat headlines will be possible. Not much change on Sat with high pres in control, but warming temps into the low-mid 80s as low level flow turns SW. Then building upper ridge will bring increasing heat into New Eng, beginning Sunday and peaking next week. Sunday will be the transition day with temps reaching 90 across some interior locations before more widespread 90s Mon-Wed in SNE as 850 mb temps peak around 20C. Humidity levels should be somewhat manageable and fall short of oppressive levels through early next week, with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. But heat headlines may still be needed as mid 90s temps are possible. Looking ahead, ensemble guidance suggests heat may continue through the end of next week. Overall a dry pattern through Tuesday as forcing and instability is pretty weak. In fact, EPS and GEFS ensembles show very low probs for 0.10" QPF. May see an increasing risk of convection by Wed as northern stream energy approaches but timing is uncertain this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today...High confidence. VFR. E-SE wind 5-10 kt. Tonight and Friday...High confidence. VFR. Patchy fog possible overnight in the typical prone locations. Light to calm wind tonight, SE-S wind 5-10 kt Friday. KBOS terminal...High confidence after 12z. May see some IFR stratus and patchy fog develop for a few hours before 12z but confidence is low. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF. Light SSE winds for much of the TAF period. Light southerly winds Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday...High confidence. Tranquil boating conditions expected to continue into Fri with E-SE winds mostly 15 kt or less. Seas 3 ft or less all waters. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/McMinn MARINE...KJC