173
FXUS61 KOKX 061443
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. A cold
front will approach from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing
slowly across on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The front may
remain stalled over or just to the south of the area mid week. A
more robust frontal system approaches by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry and warm conditions continue today with highs in the low-mid 90s
in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly upper 80s to around
90 away from the immediate coast. Also, dew points will be a little
higher than yesterday.  The combination of higher temperatures and
dew points will result in heat index values in the low to mid 90s
for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat index values are
expected to remain just below 95 degree mark.

Tonight, the SW flow will continue across the area. This would be at
least the 2nd consecutive night of onshore flow. Both the GFS and
NAM soundings are showing the potential for fog and/or stratus
across portions of the forecast area, especially along the coast.
Lows should only fall into the lower and middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high builds further offshore Monday with a cold front
approaching from the west. With the high moving offshore, this will
also allow some of the moisture associated with Chantal to approach
from the south. POPs gradually increase through the morning,
especially west of NYC. By afternoon, POPs become likely with areas
of showers and thunderstorms. East of NYC, there will be a lower
chance of POPs.

Rain and thunderstorm chances continue into Monday night with the
remnant system even closer, but there`s still not enough confidence
from the varying model solutions to go with likely PoPs. Some
guidance even suggests a narrow band of subsidence forming over the
forecast area between an approaching cold front from the west and
Chantal`s remnants from the south.

Please refer to the latest official forecast from the National
Hurricane Center regarding tropical cyclone Chantal.

The unsettled conditions continue right into Tuesday and Tuesday
night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Once again,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and along
the front. With PWATs in the 2.0-2.5 inch range, expect any storms
to be capable of locally heavy rainfall. The front eventually moves
either offshore of remains over the far southeastern sections of the
CWA into early Wednesday morning.

With respect to temperatures in the short term. Temperatures Monday
and Tuesday should be somewhat similar with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. Dew points however should be higher, especially with
Chantals remnants getting a bit closer to the region. We do have
some heat index values exceeding 95 on Monday across portions of the
area, most notably NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and into SE CT. As
dew points climb further on Tuesday, more widespread 95 heat
indices should be reached. However, one significant concern
will be the amounts of cloud cover and rainfall chances, which
could keep temperatures cooler than forecast. Either way, it
will be a very muggy two days. For now, the plan is to hold off
on any heat headlines for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global models
were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was followed.

Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through much of the
middle of the week. By the end of the week, more robust energy in
the flow approaches from the west and allows the trough to dig into
the Northeast. This will provide for a better opportunity for
showers and storms as well as slight decreases in temperatures. High
pressure may try to build in from the northeast by Saturday.

Despite chances for showers each day, high temperatures should
remain in the mid 80s through mid week, and upper 70s to lower 80s
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure today weakens tonight and Monday as a weak wave of
low pressure approaches from the south.

VFR through this evening with mostly MVFR/IFR developing
overnight. Improvement back to mostly VFR on Monday, however
showers with a chance of thunderstorms starting near noontime bring
lower flight categories.

S-SW winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt bcmg more southerly
tonight and diminishing. Winds pick up from the south on Monday,
increasing back to 10-15kt with possible gusts 20-25kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for wind gusts today, as timing may be off by a
few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday through Thursday: Mainly afternoon and evening showers/tstms
possible with MVFR or IFR cond. Highest chance exists from late Mon
through Tue evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through at least
Sunday morning. Some gusts close to 25 kt are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening on the ocean with seas climbing to around 4
ft. Sub-advisory conditions are then likely for Monday through
Friday, with seas on ocean waters possibly climbing to 5 feet
Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some tropical moisture may feed into the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night which may allow for an environment supportive of locally heavy
rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for this time frame.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk for all beaches will be moderate both today and
Monday, given the southerly flow and increasing southerly swell.
Surf heights around three ft are likely over the period, but
may increase to near 4ft by Monday, especially across NYC,
Nassau and western Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC/BR